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The Current State of the Solar Energy Sector

Great article. Sorry for appearing so dumb.. But what is "grid parity"?

Short Idea: Terra Nitrogen

Alot of what you say is already in the stock, its done, its already happened. What one needs to do is look into the future and try to assess the risks. You say it's cheap.. But I say there is a reason.

1. TNH is ONE single plant. Could there be a fire? a flood? heck.. even a black out. certainly a risk to consider.

2. TNH is hostage to natGas prices... it's 60% of their cost structure. I estimate that (holding all else equal), every 0.50MMBtu increase in natGas prices negatively affects TRA's eps by 50 cents annually. Contrary to your thoughts natGas is NOT as cyclical as oil. 24% of natGas is used for heating purposes (that portion is recession proof) as opposed to oil of which 6% is used for heating. And considering it runs at 100% capacity.. if natGas prices rise margins will have to fall.

3. Corn is the most nitogen (fertilizer) intensive crop to grow. TNH is 100% nitrogen. During the 2007 planting season corn was the ONLY grain that was ripping to new highs... but THIS YEAR we have Wheat and Soy ALSO ripping to new highs.. perhaps farmers back off corn a bit this year to diversify their land.... and wheat and soy do not use nearly as much "nitrogen" fertilizer as corn.... my bet for this planting season is a massive switch to wheat (from corn)... which would be a huge negative for nitrogen fertilizer.

4. $4000 put into this stock 5yrs ago (at $4) is now worth $130,000. Not one single thing has changed except for the demand and prices of nitrogen fertilizer that have both gone up. It is a pure commodity play and can come down sunstantially more rapidly than it went up.

This stock is priced for perfection.. and as the poster stated above.. their dividend is being cut substantially.

If I wanted exposure to fertilizer, TNH would be the last stock I would consider. Just my 2 cents.