Loading...
Symbols:
Get Seeking Alpha Free Stock Alerts by Email!
Get Free Stock Alerts by Email!
Transcripts
- Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. F3Q08 (Quarter End 09/05/08) Earnings Call Transcript
- General Electric Company Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
- DragonWave Inc. F2Q09 (Qtr End 08/31/08) Earnings Call Transcript
- Emmis Communications Corporation F2Q09 (Qtr End 08/31/08) Earnings Call Transcript
- Audiovox Corporation F2Q09 (Qtr End 08/31/08) Earnings Call Transcript
- Robbins & Myers, Inc. F4Q08 (Qtr End 08/31/08) Earnings Call Transcript
- Total System Services, Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
- Tortoise Capital Resources F3Q08 (Qtr End 08/31/2008) Earnings Call Transcript
- Intraware, Inc. F2Q09 (Qtr End 08/31/08) Earnings Call Transcript
- LTX-Credence Corporation Business Update Call Transcript
-
Editor's Picks
-
Most Popular
- Will IBM Face Sector Challenges in the Fourth Quarter?
- 95 Stocks with Low Debt to Equity
- Why Did Bernanke Play Along?
- PIC: Market Rewards Insurers That Avoided Risk
- Venture Debt Firms: Crunch Time and Opportunity
- Exxon Mobil Appears at Lower End of Valuation Range
- Full list of Editor's Picks »
- Cramer Should Be Suspended »
- This Isn't a Bottom, It's a Disturbance in The Force »
- Bulls Take a Stand - Cramer's Stop Trading! (10/10/08) »
- Where We Go from Here: Best and Worst Cases »
- Sirius Shares Priced Like Stamps »
- Back Room Deal? - Cramer's Mad Money (10/10/08) »
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News »
- Prefer a Yield - Cramer's Lightning Round (10/10/08) »
- 5 Reasons Stocks Will Keep Falling »
- Largest Bond ETF Now Trading At a Massive Discount »
- 60% of Google Employee Stock Options Are Drowning »
Trading Center
Hedge Fund Jobs
Job Seekers: Search jobs by category, get job alerts by email or live feed, apply online See full list of jobs »
Employers: See all recruitment options, get applications online or by email Post a job »
Matt from Queens
25 Comments
How Much Further Will Housing Fall?
I'm a currency trader, and I used what i call the "Grandma" indicator to get a pretty good idea of where the dollar would bottom. Grandma's birthday is in March, and while we were celebrating Grandma said to me that the dollar would probably weaken further. I love my Grandma to death, but I pretty much knew right then and there that the Euro was close to finished at that point. The euro stopped appreciating in April.
This is also known as the "Supermodel" indicator. Once Giselle said she only wanted to be paid in euro's that was pretty much it.
The next time you're in a cab, ask the driver if he thinks now is a good time to buy a house. If he starts going off like an expert about how and why prices are going down further, run out and buy.
How Much Further Will Housing Fall?
Common sense: When people can afford to purchase a home, they will. A home is going to follow the same demand and supply law that everything else does-prices and/or mortgage rates will fall until demand increases.
Historical perspective-this is obviously not the first time that housing prices have fallen. People bought before even though prices were decreasing. They will again.
Trade-you cannot "lose" money buying a house if you are paying rent. If you are living rent free somewhere-then yes, you can lose. It is always better to purchase a home then it is to rent. You are 100% assured of losing money if you rent.
How Much Further Will Housing Fall?
In the meantime, let's come back next month and have a look at the numbers.
How Much Further Will Housing Fall?
For those of you who brought employment, there's no question ti plays a factor, but the facts are that employment has declined far less than during previous slow downs. That's not to say that job losses cannot accelerate, just that to this point the decline has been less than previously seen.
All we are saying is that when 28% of the median monthly household income matches the monthly cost to pay for a home priced on the median, housing will hit a bottom area because demand will increase.
Again. we aren't predicting this will happen right now and if the economy slows as expected in the second half of the year, housing will also take a turn for the worse.
Tuesday's Currencies Wrap: Dollar Strengthens
Now, if the BoE and ECB are using an economic slowdown to lower inflation, then they will hold rates and let a slowing economy bring inflation down. The corollary here is that we should expect to see European economies slow further.
How Much Further Will Housing Fall?
The point about the down payment is valid-we left that out of our consideration here because we are only looking at affordability.
We do however stand by the argument in the article-when 28% of median household income is equal to the monthly mortgage payment, that household will have a strong motivation to buy and housing will be in a bottom area.
How Much Further Will Housing Fall?
The Dollar Can Continue To Rally, Despite the Weak Economy
The Dollar Can Continue To Rally, Despite the Weak Economy
The Dollar Can Continue To Rally, Despite the Weak Economy
You call yourself an "expert" (it says so right on your site) so what your headline should really be is "Why i was so wrong about currencies!"
And if you don't publish an article on here about why you were so wrong, I'm going to write about that on every forex forum I can find.
Start Planning for a Hard Economic Landing
The Dollar Index and the Financial Sector
To paraphrase a wonderfully clear explanation by Paul McCulley from PIMCO, the paradox of de-leveraging is resulting in further asset-price declines, reinforcing the negative feedback loop. The root of all this is the decline in home prices, the asset upon which all this leveraging was built, so without a stabilization in home prices the de-leveraging process will continue.
Lowering borrowing costs further is not likely to mitigate this problem and therefore, it isn't likely to see another rate cut from the Fed.
Weak Dollar Bodes Well for U.S. Economy
I understand that a weaker dollar is good for exports and that it's good for foreigners who wish to buy U.S. assets, but Americans absolutely hate to see U.S. assets sold to foreigners.
Goldman Calls a Bottom in the Dollar
The Euro's Long Run Is Finally Over