Matt from Queens

http://TheLFB-forex.com

25 Comments

    • ON: Wed Sep 3rd 21:00 PM
      Commented on:
      How Much Further Will Housing Fall?
      Forget about timong the market and all that other stuff to. And BTW, when your cabdriver says home prices are going to fall, that probably means that the end of home price declines is probably pretty close.

      I'm a currency trader, and I used what i call the "Grandma" indicator to get a pretty good idea of where the dollar would bottom. Grandma's birthday is in March, and while we were celebrating Grandma said to me that the dollar would probably weaken further. I love my Grandma to death, but I pretty much knew right then and there that the Euro was close to finished at that point. The euro stopped appreciating in April.

      This is also known as the "Supermodel" indicator. Once Giselle said she only wanted to be paid in euro's that was pretty much it.

      The next time you're in a cab, ask the driver if he thinks now is a good time to buy a house. If he starts going off like an expert about how and why prices are going down further, run out and buy.

      View article »
    • ON: Wed Sep 3rd 20:52 PM
      Commented on:
      How Much Further Will Housing Fall?
      Folks, let's use a bit of common sense here and put things in historical perspective. Then, let's make a trade.

      Common sense: When people can afford to purchase a home, they will. A home is going to follow the same demand and supply law that everything else does-prices and/or mortgage rates will fall until demand increases.

      Historical perspective-this is obviously not the first time that housing prices have fallen. People bought before even though prices were decreasing. They will again.

      Trade-you cannot "lose" money buying a house if you are paying rent. If you are living rent free somewhere-then yes, you can lose. It is always better to purchase a home then it is to rent. You are 100% assured of losing money if you rent.
      View article »
    • ON: Wed Sep 3rd 14:32 PM
      Commented on:
      How Much Further Will Housing Fall?
      jigs rather proves the point-he is looking for a home and would be likely to buy one if the affordability index matched.

      In the meantime, let's come back next month and have a look at the numbers.
      View article »
    • ON: Wed Sep 3rd 14:26 PM
      Commented on:
      How Much Further Will Housing Fall?
      billddrummer, we aren't saying housing is at a bottom now, and we aren't saying that the affordability index will necessarily improve in the short term, just that when it does housing will find a bottom area. Of course real estate is local, but we're using some national numbers to talk about housing nationally. I'm sure that a look at specific regions will be useful, but the idea of affordability will still apply.

      For those of you who brought employment, there's no question ti plays a factor, but the facts are that employment has declined far less than during previous slow downs. That's not to say that job losses cannot accelerate, just that to this point the decline has been less than previously seen.

      All we are saying is that when 28% of the median monthly household income matches the monthly cost to pay for a home priced on the median, housing will hit a bottom area because demand will increase.

      Again. we aren't predicting this will happen right now and if the economy slows as expected in the second half of the year, housing will also take a turn for the worse.
      View article »
    • ON: Wed Sep 3rd 08:58 AM
      Commented on:
      Tuesday's Currencies Wrap: Dollar Strengthens
      One of our central ideas for dollar strength has to do with real interest rates, which are negative in the U.S. and positive in Europe. When economies are shrinking, positive real interest rates need to be lowered, otherwise further slowing is likely to occur.

      Now, if the BoE and ECB are using an economic slowdown to lower inflation, then they will hold rates and let a slowing economy bring inflation down. The corollary here is that we should expect to see European economies slow further.
      View article »
    • ON: Wed Sep 3rd 08:35 AM
      Commented on:
      How Much Further Will Housing Fall?
      I think doubledata has a point confused. Lenders believe no more than 28% of monthly income should be used for a mortgage payment, and that is what we are basing our argument on.

      The point about the down payment is valid-we left that out of our consideration here because we are only looking at affordability.

      We do however stand by the argument in the article-when 28% of median household income is equal to the monthly mortgage payment, that household will have a strong motivation to buy and housing will be in a bottom area.
      View article »
    • ON: Tue Sep 2nd 17:06 PM
      Commented on:
      How Much Further Will Housing Fall?
      Point taken on household vs person however, the overall idea still holds. Households will purchase when housing meets the affordability requirement, although when that might happen is still open to question.
      View article »
    • ON: Tue Sep 2nd 12:02 PM
      Commented on:
      The Dollar Can Continue To Rally, Despite the Weak Economy
      Anyway-I hope not
      View article »
    • ON: Tue Sep 2nd 09:36 AM
      Commented on:
      The Dollar Can Continue To Rally, Despite the Weak Economy
      I've been short the euro since about 1.53 and the pound since 1.90. Now I'm afraid that you've put the kibosh on the dollar!
      View article »
    • ON: Tue Sep 2nd 08:17 AM
      Commented on:
      The Dollar Can Continue To Rally, Despite the Weak Economy
      I just read the September issue of Futures magazine. In there, you said "the eurodollar would probably remain in the 1.56 to 1.60 range," and that the pound will remain "above 1.97."

      You call yourself an "expert" (it says so right on your site) so what your headline should really be is "Why i was so wrong about currencies!"

      And if you don't publish an article on here about why you were so wrong, I'm going to write about that on every forex forum I can find.
      View article »
    • ON: Fri Aug 29th 08:06 AM
      Commented on:
      Start Planning for a Hard Economic Landing
      Nice article with plenty of info, but can you elaborate on why the dollar would advance?
      View article »
    • ON: Thu Aug 28th 11:37 AM
      Commented on:
      The Dollar Index and the Financial Sector
      As far as lowering borrowing costs are concerned, it's fairly evident that monetary policy by itself is not the answer to de-leveraging, therefore it's doubtful to see the Fed reduce rates further.

      To paraphrase a wonderfully clear explanation by Paul McCulley from PIMCO, the paradox of de-leveraging is resulting in further asset-price declines, reinforcing the negative feedback loop. The root of all this is the decline in home prices, the asset upon which all this leveraging was built, so without a stabilization in home prices the de-leveraging process will continue.

      Lowering borrowing costs further is not likely to mitigate this problem and therefore, it isn't likely to see another rate cut from the Fed.
      View article »
    • ON: Sun Aug 17th 12:03 PM
      Commented on:
      Weak Dollar Bodes Well for U.S. Economy
      Joe, in case you haven't noticed the dollar has been depreciating severely as the economy has weakened and the stock markets tanked. A weak dollar is not good for the economy-it's a symptom that something is very wrong with the economy.

      I understand that a weaker dollar is good for exports and that it's good for foreigners who wish to buy U.S. assets, but Americans absolutely hate to see U.S. assets sold to foreigners.
      View article »
    • ON: Sat Aug 16th 09:32 AM
      Commented on:
      Goldman Calls a Bottom in the Dollar
      I wouldn't be to proud of that February call if I were you. EUR/USD closed at 1.48 back then and it did nothing from that point but go straight to 1.60.
      View article »
    • ON: Fri Aug 15th 14:43 PM
      Commented on:
      The Euro's Long Run Is Finally Over
      The Beatles broke up too.
      View article »
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