Seeking Alpha

Art Rimbaud

Art Rimbaud
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Art Rimbaud's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Update: Harvest Natural Resources - Petroandina Files A Complaint For Breach Of Contract [View article]
    This company (and it's shareholders) were gang raped by Chavez and then Maduro. It will go bankrupt owed hundreds of millions of dollars by a foreign government without a shred of decency nor integrity.

    Their only consolation is that Maduro will very shortly be joining his buddy in the afterlife... Or will have fled to Cuba in exile.

    HNR should be a case study for the risks of investing in socialist countries.
    Jan 29, 2015. 01:00 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ultra Petroleum beats by $0.18, beats on revenue [View news story]
    With record NG prices and UPL going into the quarter with almost no production hedged, how did almost no one see this coming? Analysts are useless.
    May 1, 2014. 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keystone pipeline decision delayed again, likely until after November elections [View news story]
    Special,

    Your ignorance about the vast network of pipelines that already exists in this country aside - in heavily populated areas, no less - I kind of like your idea if it means that we can exile the green fascists, particularly, Steyer, Gore and McKibben into the middle of wind farms or, even better, into the middle of a deep sea wave farms.

    Doing so, I think their carbon footprints would finally match their propaganda levels.
    Apr 20, 2014. 08:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Rallies As Inventory Deficit Unexpectedly Widens, Confounding Bears [View article]
    If the bears would simply peruse the guidance/outlook comments from the big NG companies, they would quickly realize that there isn't any big supply increase coming.

    They've been kicked in the teeth by the market the past couple of years and have gotten the message on fiscal and production discipline. McClendon, Peak and Ward are gone, or at least at much smaller outfits. The rally of the past couple months has only reinforced the message that shareholders are interested in margin, not production, expansion.

    We all marvel at how oil prices have managed to stay high despite all the new domestic supply, Cushing, etc. Perhaps XOM is bringing its pricing "strategies" to the NG market?
    Apr 20, 2014. 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Rallies As Inventory Deficit Unexpectedly Widens, Confounding Bears [View article]
    Read that chart again!

    What you're missing is that the -50% and -54.3% are the percentage (not units) change from last year and the 5 year average levels, respectively.
    Apr 17, 2014. 09:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ultra Petroleum: How To Run An Oil And Gas Company [View article]
    Trey, it's possible that his guess might be accurate, but considering he spent all of 20 seconds (if that) thinking about it, I highly doubt it. If you read Watford's comments from the last earnings call, you'll see the reasons why he's quite bullish on NG prices: new production is not fully offsetting decline rates and demand growth is almost certain given what's happening with coal plants, the drought in CA, exports to Mexico, etc.


    Today's storage report broke a 15 year record for withdrawals, and we're likely to break another one next week. The bears' case is built on the premise that the drillers can't help but pump record amounts of NG, but if you read the transcripts from the UPL, MCF, CHK, etc. earnings calls, they are planning for very modest, if any, increases in production growth. We're very likely headed for a significant imbalance between supply and demand.
    Mar 13, 2014. 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors hires top exec away from Renault-Nissan [View news story]
    Be careful what you ask for. The traditional car makers would love to get rid of the dealership system too. It would allow them to sell their ICE cars for easily 15 - 25% less, further increasing the price gap with TSLA..

    The automakers have the supply chain, the marketing budgets and distribution systems to go direct; it's the dealership owners, their thousands of employees, the communities they support, and their powerful lobbying arm, that are fighting against TSLA's retail model tooth and nail.
    Mar 13, 2014. 02:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ultra Petroleum: How To Run An Oil And Gas Company [View article]
    As an investor in this company who's been following them a long time, I think you're a little too bullish on the Uinta, but not sufficiently bullish on their NG production. They left Q1 production unhedged until the recent cold-weather spike was well underway.

    I think you'll get the blowout results when they report Q1, but a big chunk is going to come from realized prices much higher than the $4.35 that you have penciled in. At last report, they had hedged only around 20% of production at $4.65. That's over 80% of Q1 production that they've been selling at some of the highest spot prices in the last 5 years.

    Uinta is just the icing on the cake. Earnings will be massively leveraged to higher NG prices.
    Mar 12, 2014. 09:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Opportunity Knocks At Kinder Morgan [View article]
    Deegan,

    A friendly suggestion: If you're paying for your financial news(letters) (Barron's?), and they are telling you that "the main opposition is being paid for by big oil", you might want to get some different sources, or at least ask some questions.

    First of all, what do they mean by "big oil"? There are a lot of different types of oil companies, and the downstream ones that do refining in the Gulf Coast certainly want it to go through, because the more crude to refine, the more money they make.

    Also, there are at least two "big oil" US companies that are on the record as being for it: Valero, who has a financial stake and ExxonMobil, the biggest of "big oil."

    If you know anything about Rex Tillerson, he's not one to beat around the bush or say what he doesn't mean (while funding groups that oppose his very public positions):

    "ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson again urged the Obama administration to move ahead and approve the Keystone XL Pipeline project Thursday...

    Tillerson... criticized the administration as ignoring its own rules in the face of pressure from environmental groups.

    “It was a matter of putting politics before our already rigorous regulatory permitting process, he said. “There are hundreds of thousands of miles of pipeline across the country that have a record of being safe and sound...

    Responding to another question, he said the delay in granting federal permits for the Keystone XL pipeline is "baffling."

    "I tell people the Keystone pipeline situation is the poster child for what is dysfunctional in the U.S. regulatory system.

    "It's an important infrastructure project, extremely important to the United States in terms of giving us another source of energy. The real damage that is being done, the way this decision has been handled, is that it has undermined our industry and investors' confidence in the regulatory process in this country."

    "“Keystone XL would contribute to the national interests of both the United States and Canada by expanding and linking the continent’s enormous oil-sands resources with world-class refining capabilities,” he said at the annual conference hosted by the consulting firm IHS CERA."


    So, it appears your paid "financial newsletter" writers are calling Tillerson a liar, and the most likely "big oil" I can see opposing it are the Russians, the Saudis and the Venezuelans.

    http://bit.ly/NTbwLE

    http://bit.ly/NTbwex
    Mar 5, 2014. 03:33 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Opportunity Knocks At Kinder Morgan [View article]
    If free enterprise isn't under attack, then why hasn't the Keystone pipeline been approved? The State Dept has already come out and said it meets the conditions that Obama established for giving his approval.


    Simple put, Tom Streyer and a bunch of liberal oligarchs want to get richer off US taxpayers by mandating by legislation what can't pass muster in free markets, and they're willing to spend a lot of money buying elections to have it their way.
    Mar 2, 2014. 09:40 AM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital: The Share Price Has Increased, Are Dividends Next? [View article]
    NLY might also be in a position to raise the dividend if they've increased the leverage in the portfolio. However, it is impossible to tell this from the action of the stock price. I hold a basket of mREITs and they've traded very much in tandem since the start of the year, signaling that it's just hot money flowing into the asset class vs. a specific reason with NLY.

    Agree with you that it was a tempest in a teapot; management did the right thing by reducing leverage, otherwise the BV damage would have been much worse.

    Increases may well be coming, but I don't think we get one in the next earnings report. Still, I sense that any shares acquired at the sub-$10 level will be core holdings for years to come.
    Feb 11, 2014. 09:46 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple The Next Microsoft? And Is That Necessarily A Bad Thing? [View article]
    "Meanwhile, technical analysis shows Apple is very undersold..."

    Do you mean "oversold"? I'm not sure what an undersold stock is, otherwise. Not being flip, it might be a condition that I'm simply unfamiliar with.
    Feb 7, 2014. 10:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple - Is It Losing The Battle Of The Ecosystems? [View article]
    Really? The best you could come up with for your bear thesis on Apple is that it employs the "walled garden" strategy? Weak, really weak. Come on, man, this is so tired and cliched that all it demonstrates is your utter lack of original thinking.
    Jan 16, 2014. 09:28 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons To Avoid Annaly Capital Management [View article]
    Giovanni,

    "IF you don't read those and understand what your (sic) getting into then you should not be in this play."

    Tortured syntax aside, thank you for your advice. My advice to you is to go back and read Michael Farrell's shareholder letters in the Annual Reports from 2006 - 2012 (when passed away.). He explains the company's philosophy and strategy very clearly. He explains how they managed to safely steer the company in interest rate environments that were much more challenging than the one we are in today.

    It will probably not convince you to invest in the company, but i have no doubt you will come to a fuller understanding of how the company works, and an appreciation of the genuine, heartfelt decency and concern for shareholders that guided Farrell's management of the company, and which created a lot of shareholder wealth for his long time investors.
    Jan 16, 2014. 01:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons To Avoid Annaly Capital Management [View article]
    I don't want to be unkind but this is truly terrible analysis. You don't understand how finance works and you reveal it with every "point" you make for not investing in NLY. Let me give you just very basic three ones :

    1. Not knowing what constitutes an auditor's opinion. This alone is laughable.

    2. "A yield over 10% usually indicates a red flag of some sort in an individual stock." You clearly don't know that NLY, like most mREITs, has averaged a double digit yield over its entire history. You clearly don't know the company, or the difference between an mREIT and a normal REIT.

    3. You speculate about rising interest rates hurting the company, cobbled from something you overheard somewhere, and a couple of paragraphs later you're criticizing the company for having a large position in floating interest swaps. The simple way to explain your error: if interest rates do rise, then these floating rate swaps will pay NLY more and more money, while their "costs" stay fixed. You clearly don't understand how even basic financial instruments work.

    I'm trying to be only objective, so I will refrain from making any snarky comments. Better luck with your next analysis.
    Jan 15, 2014. 07:45 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
44 Comments
108 Likes