Left Coast Rico

Farallon Increases Beacon Roofing Stake by 167%

JP Madoff -- I get your anger, but you are a little over the top w/ the "jew" labels. Probably would have been better to use the term "Ivy League" instead, as most seemed to come from there (althought there are exceptions , Dick Fuld, etc). A number of "pedigreed" anglos and others went to the dark side. Greed and duplicity know no cultural or racial boundaries-- it is a human condition that one must be ever vigilant against.


On Dec 16 10:33 AM JP MADOFF wrote:

> Wall Street is run by criminals, pedophiles, maniacs, sadists, Madoff
> masters fraudsters jews, Fed jews, masochists, JP Shmorgans, Goldman
> Sucks.................... all stink the same.
> This is how it all started, this is what it is now. The system is
> run by power brokers who bribe government to steal from the middle
> class and poor to enrich insiders only. Nothing you can do, but one
> thing.
> You are still allowed to sell stocks they sold to you decades ago
> with promises of retiring rich, now you see who you are.
> I advise you to sell all this shit on the long side, if you don't
> know how to go short, then just cash in your chips and be free of
> what is to come. If you think you have lost much since 2008, then
> soon you will beg to sell it at this price pity nobody will bid this
> high.
> OK, they will just ruin it all, it's now or never. ir.pe/mksfinance
>

Don't Feel Sorry for Goldman Management

JP Madoff -- I get your anger, but you are a little over the top w/ the "jew" labels. Probably would have been better to use the term "Ivy League" instead, as most seemed to come from there (althought there are exceptions , Dick Fuld, etc). A number of "pedigreed" anglos and others went to the dark side. Greed and duplicity know no cultural or racial boundaries-- it is a human condition that one must be ever vigilant against.


On Dec 16 10:49 AM JP MADOFF wrote:

> Wall Street is run by criminals, pedophiles, maniacs, sadists, Madoff
> masters fraudsters jews, Fed jews, masochists, JP Shmorgans, Goldman
> Sucks.................... all stink the same.
> This is how it all started, this is what it is now. The system is
> run by power brokers who bribe government to steal from the middle
> class and poor to enrich insiders only. Nothing you can do, but one
> thing.
> You are still allowed to sell stocks they sold to you decades ago
> with promises of retiring rich, now you see who you are.
> I advise you to sell all this shit on the long side, if you don't
> know how to go short, then just cash in your chips and be free of
> what is to come. If you think you have lost much since 2008, then
> soon you will beg to sell it at this price pity nobody will bid this
> high.
> OK, they will just ruin it all, it's now or never. ir.pe/mksfinance
>

Ben Bernanke, Person of the Year

JP Madoff -- I get your anger, but you are a little over the top w/ the "jew" labels. Probably would have been better to use the term "Ivy League" instead, as most seemed to come from there (althought there are exceptions , Dick Fuld, etc). A number of "pedigreed" anglos and others went to the dark side. Greed and duplicity know no cultural or racial boundaries-- it is a human condition that one must be ever vigilant against.

Isn't the Fed Monetizing Housing Debt?

The key to watch is not the value at the time they stop buying, but when they start selling. The quality of the paper that the Treasury is buying now will be important (and I understand it, the underwriting standards have been tightened for these loans), as will be the long-term interest rates at the time of sales. If the paper has good payment histories and equivalent interest rates, then being redeemed at par is a good outcome.

This is analogous to the government providing liquidity to the commercial paper market. The mortgage market needed liquidity, as well. However, the purchases must to continue to be done with prudent underwriting of the underlying credit and real estate to protect the capital outlays, or the author's fears that it's wasteful will be realized.

Study Puts Urban Housing Stock in Perspective

I can only speak to California, but the urban blight led to the suburban flight, not the other way around. The main reason for the flight -- deteriorating schools and personal safety. The inner cities are still struggling with the schools. Fortunately, the safety issues are being addressed (in most cities). The safety improvements has removed an obstacle so that many empty-nesters are willing to relocate to the urban areas. You won't get families staying in the urban areas in great numbers until the schools are fixed.

The True Cost of the Home Buyer Tax Credit

That is the worst, most deceptive math --you start with a wrong premise-- and you get the wrong conclusion-- that the cost of the program is the amount of people that could qualify and multiply it by the $8,000, as the program could cost $15.2 billion, therefore it does. Plus, if you really believe that those 350,000 homes wouldn't be sold unless there was a credit-- then you negliected to count in the payroll taxes, income taxes, sales taxes, fees paid on those homes to get the real cost to the government ($50k per house +/-). Did you consider the cumulative value protection the $2.8 billion cumulative credit used (real math 350k x $8k) will have on the states and municipalities by stabilizing those markets -- look at Case Shiller-- the markets have stabilized.

SoCal Median Home Prices Rise: Still Risky to Call a Bottom

We're below 2002 nominal prices -- in real terms it's lower -- even after at least 3 months of an uptick. We've got four straight months of increases in resales -- so, if its too early to call a bottom for single family detached -- then I think you're in denial.

We're haven't reached the bottom for other RE sectors though, but we have in SFD, when measured by median prices.

Real Estate: Today Is Likely Not the Bottom

You have cascaded too many assumptions, particularly the median income-- then claim them to be "facts" at the end. The 3 times earnings is a "rule of thumb"-- I believe most statistics show that it's closer to 3.2 times, but even that metric varies with the mortgage rate. 10% unemployment doesn't mean that median income drops by 10%-- there was already a 5% unemployment built into the "real median income" number. We're not at the bottom, but we're closer than you estimate.

How Boomer Housing Dynamics Busted Generations of Xers

This article starts out with a wrong premise and continues with unrigorous analysis throughout...Most Boomers did not own houses in 1978, when Prop 13 was passed. As Boiomers are defined as those born between 1946 and 1964, the tail end of the Boomers were born from 1960 -1964, so they couldn't even vote. The large tract developments, the California Environmental Quality Act and all of the other things this guy cites were also done in the '70's....all passed by the "Greatest Generation". Boomers had to come of age into the teeth of these regulations, they did not create them. The early Boomers got the advantage of some of the lower prices in the mid to late 70's, but most, the Boomers born from1955 on, had to deal with the serious increase in prices in the late '70's and lat 80's that pushed home ownership out of many's reach.

Potential Troublespot for the Consumer Price Index

Sorry to break it to you, but rents aren't increasing in the nation's largest state, California-- just the opposite-- in many cases the renters are buying the deep-discounted foreclosures, and moving out of the apartments. Rents are down and vacancy is up

Before you believe what you read, do some research-- the info is out there, RealFacts.com, Marcus-Millichap.com - both post their research in newsletters and press releases; and one can get much better data if one subscribes.

The Two Gaping Holes in the Inflationist Argument

Nice post and nice exchange w/ Mikebrah. His premise is that everything is zero-sum. However, if the Fed and the Treasury can "create" money, can't the converse be true-- that money can be destroyed?

Housing: False Bottom Exposed

The sum of the numbers is almost the same as the job losses over the same period. Hmm... To find a bottom, one must wait for job creation to return.

Could the Housing Market Be at a Bottom?

Pretty good analysis. You will find however, that relying on Case-Shiller at this point in the cycle is misleading. The C-S index relies only on detached housing which has sold more than once, and with broad geography. Right now the data that gets collected is from a market that is dominated by foreclosures mostly in outlying suburbs and exurbs. One doesn't find those price declines in the closer in locations, particularly in places like San Francisco (examples East Bay hills, Palo Alto, San Mateo, Marin)

I'd like to see your chart of new homes plotted against, not population, but new jobs, as that is a better indicator of housing demand.

Ip Blames Greenspan for Lack of Regulation

How do I say this nicely--- you are wrong. Go back to 2004, when most of the sub-prime started-- who were the biggest problem institutions? -- mortgage brokers and Wall Street firms Bear, Merrill and Lehman-- none of which the Fed regulated. Nor did the Fed regulate FNMA nor FHLMC. Nor does the Fed regulate the "rating agencies" who seriously dropped the ball. Nor did the Fed regulate AIG.

If you're going to impugn someone, at least get you facts straight.

Deflation and the Treasuries Bubble

Deflation is not a myth, or a great conspiracy-- look at the evidence, say, the commodities market. All of the following commodities have dropped in value (most dramatically)-- aluminum, lead, copper, tin, cotton, barley, wheat, corn, oats, soybeans, lumber, steel (rebar, rolled) -- oh yea -- oil, gold and silver. The only things that seems stable are beef and coffee. I failed to mention the housing market and the value of everyone's 401-K, but heck that only amounts to a decrease in approximately $11 trillion in wealth for Americans alone.

A debate about money supply, deleveraging of the financial institutions should also be added to a discussion.

Glad your blogging, but I think it could be more rigorous...