Mr. G's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/150863/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/178477-where-s-gold-going-from-here-part-3?source=feed#comment-810093 810093
My observation is that the inverse relation to the dollar is still intact.I do not see more upside to gold in the near future because of increase in the US economy recently which is boosting the dollar. This is a shorter term view.
On the other hand, if the low FED rate remains too long, inflation may set in, and gold could then commence another rally. I think this is the signal for reinvestment in gold. If your betting on gold and have a longer term view and have the patience to wait, physical gold is probably a safer asset because its not actively traded on the exchanges except that some ETFs are backed by physical gold. GI ]]> Thu, 17 Dec 2009 08:29:19 -0500
My observation is that the inverse relation to the dollar is still intact.I do not see more upside to gold in the near future because of increase in the US economy recently which is boosting the dollar. This is a shorter term view.
On the other hand, if the low FED rate remains too long, inflation may set in, and gold could then commence another rally. I think this is the signal for reinvestment in gold. If your betting on gold and have a longer term view and have the patience to wait, physical gold is probably a safer asset because its not actively traded on the exchanges except that some ETFs are backed by physical gold. GI ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/178225-on-the-rare-earth-crisis-of-2009?source=feed#comment-806571 806571 Tue, 15 Dec 2009 10:57:02 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/177692-how-to-predict-the-price-of-gold?source=feed#comment-801717 801717
Although the FED has been printing money in response to the current bank and lending fiasco, one should ask whether resolution of this pattern will have a longer term benefit for the US. If so, the dollar may start a longer uptrend which could dampen the enthusiasm for gold an d other commodities unless supply and demand equations create a different market picture.

I only write this as a word of caution to gold bugs because nothing in economics is fixed in cement. The markets can be fickle and good investment requires diversity to weather rough spots in investing. About two weeks ago I advised buyer beware in gold because of familiarty with trading behavior of institutional traders.

I would not touch gold presently unless the dollar index resumes its downtrend as confirmation of its futher downtrend. If your currently in the money, I would reduce the position by 50%. Longer term fundamentals would suggest more dollar downtrend, but the change in economic patterns may not confirm this downtrend. GI]]> Fri, 11 Dec 2009 11:55:02 -0500
Although the FED has been printing money in response to the current bank and lending fiasco, one should ask whether resolution of this pattern will have a longer term benefit for the US. If so, the dollar may start a longer uptrend which could dampen the enthusiasm for gold an d other commodities unless supply and demand equations create a different market picture.

I only write this as a word of caution to gold bugs because nothing in economics is fixed in cement. The markets can be fickle and good investment requires diversity to weather rough spots in investing. About two weeks ago I advised buyer beware in gold because of familiarty with trading behavior of institutional traders.

I would not touch gold presently unless the dollar index resumes its downtrend as confirmation of its futher downtrend. If your currently in the money, I would reduce the position by 50%. Longer term fundamentals would suggest more dollar downtrend, but the change in economic patterns may not confirm this downtrend. GI]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/177103-tuesday-fx-view-sour-tone-leaves-both-dollar-and-yen-bid?source=feed#comment-799103 799103 Wed, 09 Dec 2009 20:34:37 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/177129-gold-vs-the-dollar-paper-still-beats-rock?source=feed#comment-798097 798097 Gold has been trading inverse to the dollar for some time. Once the dollar resumes its downtrend below 75 on the index,one may find another buy point. GI]]> Wed, 09 Dec 2009 11:10:53 -0500 Gold has been trading inverse to the dollar for some time. Once the dollar resumes its downtrend below 75 on the index,one may find another buy point. GI]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175701-the-u-s-tax-code-encourages-leverage?source=feed#comment-782626 782626 Mon, 30 Nov 2009 10:28:28 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/175576-roger-wiegand-2-960-gold-on-the-horizon?source=feed#comment-781666 781666
The other overlooked aspect of the commodity market is the number of institutional players and the affect on the market if they unload their positions in unison which accounts for the massive downside losses.

Articles like this may be setting up liquidity for the next selloff. Buyer beware. GI]]> Sun, 29 Nov 2009 13:25:21 -0500
The other overlooked aspect of the commodity market is the number of institutional players and the affect on the market if they unload their positions in unison which accounts for the massive downside losses.

Articles like this may be setting up liquidity for the next selloff. Buyer beware. GI]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175556-u-s-unemployment-from-bad-to-worse?source=feed#comment-781643 781643
We need to expand our mining industry so we are not so dependant on imports. Attacking the problem from as many angles as possible will assist in the long run. Our country is so service oriented it may lead to our downfall if we depend on the rest of the world for all of our necessaries. A better balance locally could prevent severe imbalance in our employment rate. Guess I am just another useless voice in the wind, but the US should have future orientation in order to insure our future in the global economy. GI]]> Sun, 29 Nov 2009 13:05:30 -0500
We need to expand our mining industry so we are not so dependant on imports. Attacking the problem from as many angles as possible will assist in the long run. Our country is so service oriented it may lead to our downfall if we depend on the rest of the world for all of our necessaries. A better balance locally could prevent severe imbalance in our employment rate. Guess I am just another useless voice in the wind, but the US should have future orientation in order to insure our future in the global economy. GI]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174657-the-truth-behind-china-s-currency-peg?source=feed#comment-779596 779596 Fri, 27 Nov 2009 10:41:44 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/175401-a-golden-thanksgiving?source=feed#comment-778353 778353 Thu, 26 Nov 2009 10:07:10 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/175264-the-case-for-depression-part-4-dollar-collapse?source=feed#comment-778324 778324
While the above comments focus on the US in isolation, the picture around the world is not as rosy either as all govts fight global recession. The pegged rate of the yuan is going to cause China the first inflationary mess as their middle class grows. Failure to allow the yuan to float will destroy their global status. Their selfish approach to competitive export prices will ultimately be destroyed by inflation that may become internally rampant.

Our global exports have not significantly declined notwithstanding the pegged yuan rate. At present, the Eurozone has had a diminishing share. With an unprecedented 6 billion people on the planet and growing, I would expect larger money supplies to grow to accomadate the medium of exchange.

The current account deficit in the US presents a major risk to the dollar. With globalization a new phenomena, the comparisons of deficits and govt funding will take on a new observation as GDP comparisons may be enlarged in global thinking. Our problem is that we have the largest GDP and the largest debt.

It is going to take more bank interaction to promote capitalism in credit based economies if we are going to reduce our debt structure,create more employment, increase the total tax receipts from employed citizens, and rebalance our govts relationship to its citizens.

How the value of the dollar fares in the global restruturing will be based more on our economic resilience to overcome debt.GI]]> Thu, 26 Nov 2009 09:39:54 -0500
While the above comments focus on the US in isolation, the picture around the world is not as rosy either as all govts fight global recession. The pegged rate of the yuan is going to cause China the first inflationary mess as their middle class grows. Failure to allow the yuan to float will destroy their global status. Their selfish approach to competitive export prices will ultimately be destroyed by inflation that may become internally rampant.

Our global exports have not significantly declined notwithstanding the pegged yuan rate. At present, the Eurozone has had a diminishing share. With an unprecedented 6 billion people on the planet and growing, I would expect larger money supplies to grow to accomadate the medium of exchange.

The current account deficit in the US presents a major risk to the dollar. With globalization a new phenomena, the comparisons of deficits and govt funding will take on a new observation as GDP comparisons may be enlarged in global thinking. Our problem is that we have the largest GDP and the largest debt.

It is going to take more bank interaction to promote capitalism in credit based economies if we are going to reduce our debt structure,create more employment, increase the total tax receipts from employed citizens, and rebalance our govts relationship to its citizens.

How the value of the dollar fares in the global restruturing will be based more on our economic resilience to overcome debt.GI]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175373-euro-breaks-to-the-upside?source=feed#comment-778225 778225
I have to say the currency charts present unusual opportunity with long trends up and down.GI]]> Thu, 26 Nov 2009 08:30:28 -0500
I have to say the currency charts present unusual opportunity with long trends up and down.GI]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175174-will-eur-usd-break-out-during-the-holiday?source=feed#comment-776868 776868 Wed, 25 Nov 2009 09:00:40 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/174809-why-u-s-gdp-will-decline-in-q4?source=feed#comment-773377 773377
The credit issue has been a primary problem as banks have decreased lending and increased interest rates even on creditworthy borrowers. I see this as a primary damper on increased demand. The consumers who are employed have recovered some since our country did not collapse into another great depression, and this sentiment factor may lead to increased holiday spending over the same period in 2008.

I am hesitant to express too much gloom as the housing market is in transition to stabilisation, thats why I say, lets talk in January. GI]]> Mon, 23 Nov 2009 11:03:40 -0500
The credit issue has been a primary problem as banks have decreased lending and increased interest rates even on creditworthy borrowers. I see this as a primary damper on increased demand. The consumers who are employed have recovered some since our country did not collapse into another great depression, and this sentiment factor may lead to increased holiday spending over the same period in 2008.

I am hesitant to express too much gloom as the housing market is in transition to stabilisation, thats why I say, lets talk in January. GI]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174809-why-u-s-gdp-will-decline-in-q4?source=feed#comment-773098 773098 Mon, 23 Nov 2009 08:37:48 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/174665-fx-clearinghouses-exacerbating-systemic-risk?source=feed#comment-771899 771899
To manage institutional trades which tend to be large, I would imagine they have to hedge these positions to balance the betting to a net zero.

I can not see how a clearing house concept would relate unless the trading involves options. I see a distinct difference between the spot and options market. Anyone helping me with these concepts would be appreciated. GI]]> Sun, 22 Nov 2009 12:08:55 -0500
To manage institutional trades which tend to be large, I would imagine they have to hedge these positions to balance the betting to a net zero.

I can not see how a clearing house concept would relate unless the trading involves options. I see a distinct difference between the spot and options market. Anyone helping me with these concepts would be appreciated. GI]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174684-supply-demand-and-the-u-s-dollar?source=feed#comment-771857 771857
The fragility of our economy lies in credit and unemployment, and if this resolves, supply and demand will escalate. 2000 thru 2008 was one of the most destructive periods in our history financially, and undoing the sins of this period will not be easy nor is there any quick fix.

If the current FED policy supports economic recovery, this supports a strong dollar even if the dollar depreciates. (odd thinking?). The rise of the S&P while the dollar goes down is known as the risk trade. The current stock market rise is a better economic indicator concerning the strength of our economy than dollar depreciation. Its based on earnings. GI]]> Sun, 22 Nov 2009 11:31:33 -0500
The fragility of our economy lies in credit and unemployment, and if this resolves, supply and demand will escalate. 2000 thru 2008 was one of the most destructive periods in our history financially, and undoing the sins of this period will not be easy nor is there any quick fix.

If the current FED policy supports economic recovery, this supports a strong dollar even if the dollar depreciates. (odd thinking?). The rise of the S&P while the dollar goes down is known as the risk trade. The current stock market rise is a better economic indicator concerning the strength of our economy than dollar depreciation. Its based on earnings. GI]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174220-ethanol-vs-natural-gas-or-coal-comparison-not-even-close?source=feed#comment-768898 768898
I think the energy equation for the future is in the beginnings of transition to alternative fuels, and fossil fuels shall remain as the underlying foundation to the transition as new ideas emerge.

My personal favorite is hydrogen fuels and simple chemistry. There is more hydrogen in the universe than any other element and its usage solves almost any problem with pollution and emmissions.GI]]> Fri, 20 Nov 2009 10:15:27 -0500
I think the energy equation for the future is in the beginnings of transition to alternative fuels, and fossil fuels shall remain as the underlying foundation to the transition as new ideas emerge.

My personal favorite is hydrogen fuels and simple chemistry. There is more hydrogen in the universe than any other element and its usage solves almost any problem with pollution and emmissions.GI]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174220-ethanol-vs-natural-gas-or-coal-comparison-not-even-close?source=feed#comment-768894 768894
I think the energy equation for the future is in the beginnings of transition to alternative fuels, and fossil fuels shall remain as the underlying foundation to the transition as new ideas emerge.

My personal favorite is hydrogen fuels and simple chemistry. There is more hydrogen in the universe than any other element and its usage solves almost any problem with pollution and emmissions.GI]]> Fri, 20 Nov 2009 10:14:36 -0500
I think the energy equation for the future is in the beginnings of transition to alternative fuels, and fossil fuels shall remain as the underlying foundation to the transition as new ideas emerge.

My personal favorite is hydrogen fuels and simple chemistry. There is more hydrogen in the universe than any other element and its usage solves almost any problem with pollution and emmissions.GI]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174447-u-s-share-of-world-gdp-remains-remarkably-constant?source=feed#comment-768811 768811 Fri, 20 Nov 2009 09:47:07 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/173872-a-look-at-george-soros-s-recent-trades?source=feed#comment-765409 765409 Soros made huge money on the sterling as a currency trader. Wish I could trade with him to learn.
When Buffet and Soros trade, they are looking for places to park huge sums with longer upside value. This is trading on a much different level, and emphasizes "it takes money to make money". GI]]> Wed, 18 Nov 2009 10:59:31 -0500 Soros made huge money on the sterling as a currency trader. Wish I could trade with him to learn.
When Buffet and Soros trade, they are looking for places to park huge sums with longer upside value. This is trading on a much different level, and emphasizes "it takes money to make money". GI]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173745-is-the-dollar-toast?source=feed#comment-764926 764926
One of the primary reasons for dollar depreciation is the world holds about 7 trillion or more in reserves,and as they sell dollars to diverify their reserve base, it puts downwrd pressure on dollar value. This is causing large moves in the euro(150 pips per day average.) The cause and affect of dollar movement is not solely related to the FED rate. GI]]> Wed, 18 Nov 2009 06:09:28 -0500
One of the primary reasons for dollar depreciation is the world holds about 7 trillion or more in reserves,and as they sell dollars to diverify their reserve base, it puts downwrd pressure on dollar value. This is causing large moves in the euro(150 pips per day average.) The cause and affect of dollar movement is not solely related to the FED rate. GI]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173745-is-the-dollar-toast?source=feed#comment-763826 763826
Another benefit is US exports. It makes our products competitive on the global markets. The pegged yuan makes Chinas products equally competitive.

On a final note, currency traders set the prices of currency value, not the US govt. If the current pattern of FED policy works, the dollar will appreciate as our economy grows, but the hurdles of employment rate and credit markets have to resolve first. GI]]> Tue, 17 Nov 2009 11:27:46 -0500
Another benefit is US exports. It makes our products competitive on the global markets. The pegged yuan makes Chinas products equally competitive.

On a final note, currency traders set the prices of currency value, not the US govt. If the current pattern of FED policy works, the dollar will appreciate as our economy grows, but the hurdles of employment rate and credit markets have to resolve first. GI]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173479-should-the-federal-reserve-be-doing-more?source=feed#comment-762056 762056
Tax policy is another form of Govt regulation that could assist the unemployment rate, but I have not seen a govt response that would encourage our mfg base to remain in country. This not only lowers the unemployment rate, but increase the supporting industries(transportation etc.). The various govt tools have to combine to futher stimulate our economy otherwise, the jobless recovery may become the norm.]]> Mon, 16 Nov 2009 11:01:47 -0500
Tax policy is another form of Govt regulation that could assist the unemployment rate, but I have not seen a govt response that would encourage our mfg base to remain in country. This not only lowers the unemployment rate, but increase the supporting industries(transportation etc.). The various govt tools have to combine to futher stimulate our economy otherwise, the jobless recovery may become the norm.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173401-is-the-bernanke-doctrine-a-disaster?source=feed#comment-761344 761344 When I refinanced my own home, I was swamped with offers from lenders offering option arms(choosing payments with no principal reduction or negative amortization while tacking principal to the end of the loan). WOW! I chose a 30 year fixed interest rate loan.

The other problem unknown to the public in general is how the lending industry subdivided secured trust deeds and mortgages into investment parts based on future interest expectations and sold these parts on a global basis. AIG WAS INVOLVED IN ISSUING CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS WHICH operate like insurance against foreclosure.

The entire system imploded as real estate began losing value. Investors of almost every class participated to some degree and on a global basis. The exponential quality of these new and exotic products practically bankrupt our entire lending industry which gives one an idea how massive this really was. You probably had no idea who was holding your mortgage or how many different investors were involved in it. The original lender simply stayed on board as the collection agent.

I hope this gives some insight into the global financial crises. This is why I say the FED became hostage to capitalism gone wild. This is why I rail at supply side economics which prefers no regulation of the industry. Deregulation of risk clearly has the potential to bring down our entire financial system. GI]]> Sun, 15 Nov 2009 20:29:48 -0500 When I refinanced my own home, I was swamped with offers from lenders offering option arms(choosing payments with no principal reduction or negative amortization while tacking principal to the end of the loan). WOW! I chose a 30 year fixed interest rate loan.

The other problem unknown to the public in general is how the lending industry subdivided secured trust deeds and mortgages into investment parts based on future interest expectations and sold these parts on a global basis. AIG WAS INVOLVED IN ISSUING CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS WHICH operate like insurance against foreclosure.

The entire system imploded as real estate began losing value. Investors of almost every class participated to some degree and on a global basis. The exponential quality of these new and exotic products practically bankrupt our entire lending industry which gives one an idea how massive this really was. You probably had no idea who was holding your mortgage or how many different investors were involved in it. The original lender simply stayed on board as the collection agent.

I hope this gives some insight into the global financial crises. This is why I say the FED became hostage to capitalism gone wild. This is why I rail at supply side economics which prefers no regulation of the industry. Deregulation of risk clearly has the potential to bring down our entire financial system. GI]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173388-is-the-local-top-in-precious-metals-stocks-already-behind-us?source=feed#comment-761131 761131 Sun, 15 Nov 2009 14:41:48 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/173401-is-the-bernanke-doctrine-a-disaster?source=feed#comment-761127 761127 Sun, 15 Nov 2009 14:32:29 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/173401-is-the-bernanke-doctrine-a-disaster?source=feed#comment-760911 760911
Second, economic stimulus, which requires printing more money is attempting to support the unemployment rate by encouraging consumption and consumer spending.

Third, selling tips and treasuries during dollar deflation assists not only financing govt operations, but attempts to support economic stimulus.

The policy is designed, as I see it, as a good faith bet on stimulating capitalism to pull the US out of our financial crises. If the housing crises finally resolves, the unemployment rate goes down, our GDP expands, and the current account deficit does not expand out of total control, FED policy may work. I keep challenging the readership to design a superior FED policy, but I have not seen any constructive comments that discusses a comprehensive policy. I would not Mr. Bernankes job, but so far, I have to back the play. GI ]]> Sun, 15 Nov 2009 11:30:03 -0500
Second, economic stimulus, which requires printing more money is attempting to support the unemployment rate by encouraging consumption and consumer spending.

Third, selling tips and treasuries during dollar deflation assists not only financing govt operations, but attempts to support economic stimulus.

The policy is designed, as I see it, as a good faith bet on stimulating capitalism to pull the US out of our financial crises. If the housing crises finally resolves, the unemployment rate goes down, our GDP expands, and the current account deficit does not expand out of total control, FED policy may work. I keep challenging the readership to design a superior FED policy, but I have not seen any constructive comments that discusses a comprehensive policy. I would not Mr. Bernankes job, but so far, I have to back the play. GI ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172995-geithner-s-deeply-held-belief-in-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-758632 758632
I think Geitners statments are well meaning, but the "devil is in the details". I wish someone could espouse an economic policy superior to current FED action to overcome and address all the problems we currently face. GI ]]> Fri, 13 Nov 2009 11:00:06 -0500
I think Geitners statments are well meaning, but the "devil is in the details". I wish someone could espouse an economic policy superior to current FED action to overcome and address all the problems we currently face. GI ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173055-u-s-dollar-time-for-deeds-not-words?source=feed#comment-758593 758593
In fact, I see little constructive analysis other than piecemeal criticism of the isolated parts of the current FED pattern as if in isolation, each reaction to our monetary instability is a future predictor of doom. Even political pundits comment if current FED policy violates their preconceived ideas.

My point is, can anyone put together a comprehesive economic policy that not only overcomes the financial crises, but manages to preserve our capitalistic system and take into account all the problems superior to current FED policy? GI ]]> Fri, 13 Nov 2009 10:39:34 -0500
In fact, I see little constructive analysis other than piecemeal criticism of the isolated parts of the current FED pattern as if in isolation, each reaction to our monetary instability is a future predictor of doom. Even political pundits comment if current FED policy violates their preconceived ideas.

My point is, can anyone put together a comprehesive economic policy that not only overcomes the financial crises, but manages to preserve our capitalistic system and take into account all the problems superior to current FED policy? GI ]]>