Mr. G

Tuesday FX View: Sour Tone Leaves Both Dollar and Yen Bid

You seem to enjoy analogizing currency and people to food. I hope your not overweight. GI

Euro Breaks to the Upside

My understanding is printing money is not just a US phenomenon, but many countries are printing more money. It appears the globe is awash in currency.

I have to say the currency charts present unusual opportunity with long trends up and down.GI

Ethanol vs. Natural Gas or Coal: Comparison Not Even Close

One of the best researched articles I have read on SA. I agree that ethanol is not a silver bullet, and I like the photosynthesis comparison.

I think the energy equation for the future is in the beginnings of transition to alternative fuels, and fossil fuels shall remain as the underlying foundation to the transition as new ideas emerge.

My personal favorite is hydrogen fuels and simple chemistry. There is more hydrogen in the universe than any other element and its usage solves almost any problem with pollution and emmissions.GI

Ethanol vs. Natural Gas or Coal: Comparison Not Even Close

One of the best researched articles I have read on SA. I agree that ethanol is not a silver bullet, and I like the photosynthesis comparison.

I think the energy equation for the future is in the beginnings of transition to alternative fuels, and fossil fuels shall remain as the underlying foundation to the transition as new ideas emerge.

My personal favorite is hydrogen fuels and simple chemistry. There is more hydrogen in the universe than any other element and its usage solves almost any problem with pollution and emmissions.GI

Thursday FX View: Trichet Offers the U.S. His Sledgehammer

3% GDP increase and 10.2% unemployment. A question arises. What is holding up the US economy? I believe its the global economy and for US stock investors, those companies participating in the world wide economy will do the best. Locally, demand has waned. September inventories were down and this doesnt bode well for the holiday season and one might speculate the consumer has been severally damaged, not only from unemployment but in overall sentiment.

In the longer term, this does not support the dollar. I would speculate the dollar will remain in the downtrend longer term till US consumption picks up. GI

Tuesday FX View: Currency Traders Take a Beating as Dollar Rally Gives Way

The question concerning the Yuan is interesting. The most important point is that the value of any currency is how the universe of traders see it on the spot market, not any true value. For example, for the US to have a strong dollar policy is a worthless statement if the universe of traders do not perceive the dollars fair market value as strong.
A better question is what causes a currency to be perceived as strong? In my opinion, the value of any currency is determined by the set of economic indicators affecting the countries GDP. It is the constant ebb and flow of these indicators that traders perceive at any one time that ultimatley measures a currency value. Said another way, look at currencies as being a stock in a country.

At present China may be artifically depressing its currency to make its exports more competitive on the global export market. Considering Chinas economic growth rate, I believe the universe of traders would see its value higher than its current pegged rate. How much higher is a guess at best, but I would like to watch it trade once unpegged and my position would be long. GI

Tuesday FX View: Currency Traders Take a Beating as Dollar Rally Gives Way

The dollar index recently made a major breakout from its downtrend. Was this a headfake or a signal for future upside movement? The ADP and ISM nonmfg reports do not support the upside, but an unexpected move in the unemployment rate on friday may have a more pronounced affect.
The dollar breakout may have been short covering as the demand for the dollar increases. It seems the US is just bumping along the bottom and if the unemployment rate is flat, I do not expect more upside to the dollar.GI

Monday FX View: A Smoother Start to a Week Has Dealers Mark Down Dollar

Just a technical note. The dollar has broken out of its downtrend since June. It could retrace back to 80 on the index. I think the unemployment indicator this friday could forecast future movement. I would still be on the sidelines in gold and oil. GI

How Bad Is the Dollar's Fall?

I think the most recent rise in the dollar (five cents against the euro) was FED action. This is the first time they lowered the rate with out increasing the money supply. Typically,lowering the rate makes the dollar weaker against the euro based on interest rate preference,but the move was counterintuitive. I can see nothing in the near future that supports the dollar and I expect it to retrace lower considering the fundamentals coming down the pike.