Mr. G

Where's Gold Going from Here? Part 3

People buy gold for reasons,as a hedge against inflation,supply and demand, or as a trader perspective because of its recent inverse relation to the dollar. The author advises to keep watching the dollar.

My observation is that the inverse relation to the dollar is still intact.I do not see more upside to gold in the near future because of increase in the US economy recently which is boosting the dollar. This is a shorter term view.
On the other hand, if the low FED rate remains too long, inflation may set in, and gold could then commence another rally. I think this is the signal for reinvestment in gold. If your betting on gold and have a longer term view and have the patience to wait, physical gold is probably a safer asset because its not actively traded on the exchanges except that some ETFs are backed by physical gold. GI

Gold vs. the Dollar: Paper Still Beats Rock

All the fundamentals are in place for a longer term rise in gold. Trading futures belongs to the institutional players and the recent selloff is traditional in this market. When people trade, they post stop losses, and the difference between the market price and the stop loss is liquidity for the institutional trader. You must think like a trader in the short term to avoid the loss.
Gold has been trading inverse to the dollar for some time. Once the dollar resumes its downtrend below 75 on the index,one may find another buy point. GI

A Golden Thanksgiving

Does anyone remember when the DOW was 800 and gold was 800? I do, I am that old. GI

Is the Local Top in Precious Metals Stocks Already Behind Us?

There was a time in history when the DOW was at 800 and gold rose to $800 the ounce. If this correlation is any predictor, gold could rise above $2000 the ounce. GI

Gold Stocks Slide as USD Index Strengthens – Should You Be Concerned?

I have traded the forex for some time and watched the gold bugs predict $2000 gold over 2 years ago only to see it go much lower. When gold drops, it tanks. Notwithstanding the current account deficit we can see, the US economy has unbelievable resilience. Just ask Gates and Buffet when they lost a billion or so from a previous current account read..I admit the situation is not bright, but caution is always advisable when playing real money. Keep your eye on the unemployment rate next friday. It is a heavy hitter and if it drops, you might be surprised. If it goes higher, I would say the long in gold is still on the table.

Gold Stocks Slide as USD Index Strengthens – Should You Be Concerned?

It is fairly obvious that gold and oil are trading inverse to the dollar index. Looking at the dollar index, It is still in its downward trend technically, but if it goes higher this week, gold and oil could break more to the downside, and the dollar could be bottoming which would be be a bigger reason to wait on the sideline till a more positive direction for the dollar is determined. The key is to watch the US fundamental readouts this week. The chopiness in the market may be resolved if the US economy committs to one side or the other.

The Case for $1300/Oz Gold

I agree with the author, but the overlooked reaction is the hedgefunds and big money boys reaction when the US keeps falling into recession. The market psycology of these players may push gold to well over $1500 the ounce.

Get Out of Commodities - Barron's

At least, the author recognizes that commodities are dollar denominated. If you believe the US treasury wont be printing any more money to devalue the dollar as the FED tries to bailout the massive institutional crisis, then I could agree with the author. However, I think this is another example of eternal optimism seen on CNBC as the pundits try to control market sentiment. I see more downside risk as the CDO and debt writedowns keep appearing.

Global Precious Metals Correction: Healthy and Overdue

Profit taking and the rise of the U.S. dollar (5 cents against the EURO) is probably responsible for the markt perception that gold should be corrected to reflect market risk. I havent heard any fat ladies singing that all is well in the U.S. The same factors supporting commodity increase and dollar devaluation are still in place except the Fed didnt print more money to solve the Bear Stearns failure. Will the treasury have to print more money to solve the liquidity crisis in the US banking system? Will the FED have to continue to lower the FED rate to cope with the recessionary risks?

Gold/Dollar Ratio Goes Parabolic

As long as the commodity market designates hard assets in dollars, the dollars demise will continue to lift their value. Coupled with global growth, hard assets have a long way to run due to unpredented DEMAND. Selecting the right asset markets to invest in to protect yourself from a severe recession is at a premium in todays market.

Is it a Good Time to Sell Gold Yet?

Probably the least incitful analysis I have ever read

Gold Jumps on Renewed Inflation Concerns

While all analysts have attempted to link gold prices to oil or the devaluing dollar, I think gold is finally showing the driving force being global inflation and recession tendancies in the U.S. The CPI report yesterday clearly was the driving force.

Has Gold Reached Bubble Territory?

I think the biggest driver of gold price lies in FED activity.Increasing the amount of money(Printing more money) severely damages the dollar. When inflation is rising, the FED should raise the rate but they arent! Gold, like other commodities is dollar denominated. Ex Fed Chief Volker defined inflation as too many dollars chasing too few goods. These are the drivers I see in commodity price increase, as well as global growth. AS big firm money managers perceive this risk, the market psycology will strongly support the price increase in gold. As far as gold prices going up and down, you are witnessing profit taking. Notice golds recovery in price after the last sell off. Traders love this pattern.

Did Gold Bugs Miss the Fat Lady?

The most salient point is that gold appears tied to economic parameters perceived in the long term,not short term teasers. As inflation, stagflation, and recession lingo creeps into our mixed views, particularly in th EU and the US, gold appears to be a steady factor to hedge against currency fluctuations and golds ultimate moves may not be tied to just one factor.