Rajiv Sethia's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/151096/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/97361-icici-bank-boring-business-compelling-valuation?source=feed#comment-266498 266498
This is a time bomb waiting to implode. My 2p.
]]> Fri, 26 Sep 2008 19:39:16 -0400
This is a time bomb waiting to implode. My 2p.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70062-tibetan-unrest-and-economic-implications-nancy-pelosi-s-war?source=feed#comment-132438 132438 Thu, 27 Mar 2008 11:48:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/70200-invest-globally-not-just-locally?source=feed#comment-132428 132428
The "demographic inevitability" isn't inevitable, just as it wasn't for most of the two centuries prior to the last 20 years. Weak institutions, fickle economic policy, political challenges, societal strife (particularly India and China) and governance issues can still trounce sound economics quite easily in each of these countries. Exchange controls over capital flows make true asset pricing difficult. But I do agree with the author that these may represent good diversification opportunities for a mainly US based portfolio.]]> Thu, 27 Mar 2008 11:35:37 -0400
The "demographic inevitability" isn't inevitable, just as it wasn't for most of the two centuries prior to the last 20 years. Weak institutions, fickle economic policy, political challenges, societal strife (particularly India and China) and governance issues can still trounce sound economics quite easily in each of these countries. Exchange controls over capital flows make true asset pricing difficult. But I do agree with the author that these may represent good diversification opportunities for a mainly US based portfolio.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68032-spitzer-self-destruction?source=feed#comment-125313 125313 Tue, 11 Mar 2008 17:18:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/67355-india-is-thirsty-for-energy-will-the-bulls-take-notice?source=feed#comment-122920 122920 Thu, 06 Mar 2008 09:48:53 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/67408-intel-google-apple-valuation-anomalies-to-consider?source=feed#comment-122890 122890 Thu, 06 Mar 2008 09:20:18 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/67020-indias-labor-arbitrage-strategy?source=feed#comment-122577 122577 Wed, 05 Mar 2008 16:20:02 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/66752-some-muni-bonds-appear-screaming-buys-here?source=feed#comment-121097 121097 ]]> Sun, 02 Mar 2008 10:33:43 -0500 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66657-inflation-s-power-the-dollar-in-25-years?source=feed#comment-120646 120646 Fri, 29 Feb 2008 10:48:01 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/63763-india-s-exploding-real-estate-market-shades-of-the-florida-condo-bubble?source=feed#comment-116069 116069
There are serious short term factors at work here - the lack of good title to properties is a serious problem, for example, you can't think of buying a property in most of Karol Bagh, Chandni Chowk, west Delhi, much of South Delhi too because you don't know how many claimants are there to the title. So you can only go to the new developers like Ansals, DLF and others that give you a clear title. There is certainly a demand unmatched by supply as houses can't be built overnight, but supply is responding to the demand & it remains to be seen what happens in the next 3-4 years. Increasing urbanization is a factor but I don't believe the rural masses moving to the cities are bringing the kind of money these houses demand.

There is another issue I am still unsure about. In the US, foreclosure laws are well established and the procedure is followed. In India, if you default, and if the lender takes you to court under civil law, he has no choice but to wait for 5 years for the case to come up for first hearing. So it will be interesting to see how that one unfolds when people start defaulting (which is statistically inevitable, no matter how rich India is compared to the US ;-), as is the argument I have heard made by some.

But one can analyze to one's heart's content, the market is what the market is, and the fact is that these are the prices. In 2004 I looked at an apartment which then was 1 crore rupees in Noida near Delhi, and today is more than double that. If I wish to buy something I would be comfortable with for my family, that would currently cost nothing less than half a million dollars. I don't know how the guys in India manage that kind of money, or the courage to take on mortgages whose monthly payments are in the $3k a month range with an Indian salary. Someone I put this question to said there is no dearth of the newly rich who work for Infosys, Daksh and many others and whose share options have made them dollar millionaires. Maybe I & Anshu missed the boat. Ten years ago when I was in Thailand I was shocked to see million dollar condos there - maybe these prices are par for the game in developing countries. The bubble may just stay the same or shrink a bit instead of bursting because when prices go down, the property markets just become shallow and deals stop happening, and declines will only happen by the effect of inflation while nominal prices hold. Who knows. ]]> Wed, 13 Feb 2008 10:33:51 -0500
There are serious short term factors at work here - the lack of good title to properties is a serious problem, for example, you can't think of buying a property in most of Karol Bagh, Chandni Chowk, west Delhi, much of South Delhi too because you don't know how many claimants are there to the title. So you can only go to the new developers like Ansals, DLF and others that give you a clear title. There is certainly a demand unmatched by supply as houses can't be built overnight, but supply is responding to the demand & it remains to be seen what happens in the next 3-4 years. Increasing urbanization is a factor but I don't believe the rural masses moving to the cities are bringing the kind of money these houses demand.

There is another issue I am still unsure about. In the US, foreclosure laws are well established and the procedure is followed. In India, if you default, and if the lender takes you to court under civil law, he has no choice but to wait for 5 years for the case to come up for first hearing. So it will be interesting to see how that one unfolds when people start defaulting (which is statistically inevitable, no matter how rich India is compared to the US ;-), as is the argument I have heard made by some.

But one can analyze to one's heart's content, the market is what the market is, and the fact is that these are the prices. In 2004 I looked at an apartment which then was 1 crore rupees in Noida near Delhi, and today is more than double that. If I wish to buy something I would be comfortable with for my family, that would currently cost nothing less than half a million dollars. I don't know how the guys in India manage that kind of money, or the courage to take on mortgages whose monthly payments are in the $3k a month range with an Indian salary. Someone I put this question to said there is no dearth of the newly rich who work for Infosys, Daksh and many others and whose share options have made them dollar millionaires. Maybe I & Anshu missed the boat. Ten years ago when I was in Thailand I was shocked to see million dollar condos there - maybe these prices are par for the game in developing countries. The bubble may just stay the same or shrink a bit instead of bursting because when prices go down, the property markets just become shallow and deals stop happening, and declines will only happen by the effect of inflation while nominal prices hold. Who knows. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/63763-india-s-exploding-real-estate-market-shades-of-the-florida-condo-bubble?source=feed#comment-116025 116025 Wed, 13 Feb 2008 04:23:55 -0500