retired pharma

http://www.frankfrazzano.com

10 Comments

    • Merck/Schering-Plough's Heart Drug Couldn't Have Done Worse [view article]
      Dear Dan Abshear,

      give it a rest MR.PONTIFICATION!       Jul 30 07:41 PM
    • Majority of Americans Support Ethanol [view article]
      perhaps your questionnaires could have been worded like this which I am quite certain they were not...If you were aware Senator Grassley,R-Iowa and Family received million$ in Farm Subsidies would this affect your stance on Ethanol?....Or do you think it would be ethical for Senator Grassley to even vote on the $300B Farm Bill knowing his pro-corn/ethanol stance?...or Do you believe 1 gallon of Ethanol is worth 1700 gallons of fresh H2O the average amount of water nescessary to make that 1 gallon?...or When you buy a dozen eggs this year for 2.50/dozen and last year those eggs cost 1.25/dozen do you believe the Corn which goes into the feeding of chickens that lay those eggs or making Ethanol from the same corn has anything to do w/ the increased price?...you will get a different end result!!! I would say your 2:1 in favor goes to 1:2 at best!


      you see like the previous posts have illuminated...How you ask and the wording can make a difference in answers! Even the American public which is not too bright would see through the Ethanol Conspiracy!       Jul 20 03:46 PM
    • Mannkind: Overlooked Biotech With Excellent Prospects (Part VI) [view article]
      AW,

      Again I commend you on a fine series and admittedly you are one of the best to respond to "bloggers" concerns.Certainly many have been raised over your 6 part series. I have saved a chunk of money to commit to MNKD eventually this year but wanted to tell you "Thanks" for an enlightening series.The fact that you own shares and divulge this openly only confirms your entegrity/editorial Alpha compliance. I particularly like your quiet educated non-hostle demeanor! I do not believe you are a "Pumper", but I believe you have conviction/passion for MNKD! There is NO FAULT in that and I am one in the same!

      Before I recommend personal holdings such as MLNM or KOSN two of my better picks over the years I first did my DD, committed personal funds and than tryed in vain as you do to give fair and balanced thoughts on my holdings and why I like them.

      Currently I am long/and own shares in FOLD,EPIX,INFI,AVAN,CR... in bios, MHS in PBM's, and SGP,MRK,JNJ,BMY,LLY,an... PFE in large pharma.

      I would be curious to read your thoughts particularly on any of my BIO's!

      Thanks!

      Frank       Jun 28 12:41 PM
    • Mannkind: Overlooked Biotech With Excellent Prospects (Part IV) [view article]
      AW,

      I just read part 4 and left you a post on part 3..My mom is recovering from a recent setback at age 86 and I am behind in my readings. She is doing better now.

      I must say the more I read your blog the more I become interested!

      I gave you my list of prospects as you know and we were aligned w/ the exception of Sanofi-Aventis.Thanks for the Heads up on LA Insulin Lantus vs MannLind TI(short-immediate acting) mealtime dose.I can see your logic and must confess it has probably been discussed and SNY is awaiting the right moment in time to announce.

      Does Mr. Mann really want to establish his own Sales Force..because that is a huge/expensive undertaking.Let me give you some numbers.Best Reps who know this Market plus perks are making $150,000 per year...times 1000 reps equals a startup cost=$150M...a better move would be to partner w/ a SNY for US and exUS w/ an option to develop said Nannkind Force eventually but in the meantime like NOW... start up a "Scientific Affairs Liasson" division w/ sole Scientific and NO SALES initiative. This force of say 50 officers would go out into the field to support Scientific Forum only.They would set up all phase 4 sites for post marketing and they would recruit the best Sales Reps from their geographies for the actual US Marketing push.They would attend all Diabetes Meetings and cover the Boths and Scientific Forum.They would be in touch by (Cell) w/ all US thought/opinion leaders and they would lay down the SCIENCE!

      This should be done now (maybe 10-20 people) and grow over the nearterm in a small way prior to P-3 finalization to prepare for NDA to FDA.I know not if this is part of MNKD's strategy but it is the RIGHT strategy and everyone in our INDUSTRY already knows this as fact!

      Please tell me I am correct or I will write to AL for you!       Jun 18 07:44 PM
    • Mannkind: Overlooked Biotech With Excellent Prospects (Part III) [view article]
      AW,

      I do not mean to be so critical of your assessment of MNKD and I can assure I currently have No position in MNKD. I do not short stocks or go long..I only Buy and Sell. Upon checking shortsqueeze.com and plugging in MNKD you will see SI=19.47% of the float w/ 20 days to cover but to it's credit the previous vs current shares short are unchanged.

      This stock is too risky for me but when my "Buy" signal comes I will step up to the plate and pull the trigger!       Jun 18 06:57 PM
    • Mannkind: Overlooked Biotech With Excellent Prospects (Part III) [view article]
      AW,

      I nearly bought MNKD a year ago somewhere about 10-12 but hesitated...I revisited again 6 months ago and 3 months ago and now I am back revisiting again($2-$3). From 10 to 3 in 1 year is about 75% down my friend!!!

      I will buy but I will buy below todays close and after your 6 part series! You make valid, strong and Intelligent points on MNKD! I think it goes lower and like you say w/ FDA approval it's a 2x or 3x easilly! What partner are you imagining for MNKD! I look at Bayer and JNJ who are big in Meters,BMY,GSK,LLY,etc in meds....I would think this would be a BIG PARTNER w/ DEEP POCKETS who appreciates what this LAUNCH must look like to be successful.

      I mean I can see launch costing $250M? and I'm guessing based on my career experience launching>25 drugs....but, due to past history w/ PFE,NN and LLY pulling the plug, it will need to be massive at a time when NO ONE wants Direct to Consumer...look at SGP pulling the TV spots on Vytorin/Zetia post ENHANCE...come on I can go on and on why this is going to be a really tough row to hoe!!!       Jun 17 04:33 PM
    • Mannkind: Overlooked Biotech With Excellent Prospects (Part III) [view article]
      Dear AW,

      I believe I said I like the Diabetes Science of Mannkind. I am a prospect to buy not a basher and my MLNM and KOSN windfalls are waiting to be placed other than in my current FOLD,CRIS and EPIX. I currently hold pharmas as well including those getting hammered such as SGP,MRK,JNJ,PFE,LLY and BMY.

      My skepticism over MNKD has to do with financials but I could be convinced with your Honest and Forthwright appraisal as to such large cummulative debt as the current $1.2B...what I consider a very large and rapid burn rate as well...I worked in pharma for 33 years so you need not convince me of the high cost of Drug Development.

      I need hard numbers going forward as to what the Prelaunch plan w/ Endo's and PC/IM will be after 3 companies pulled the plug on similiar yet "Inferior" technologies.How do you get them on board before launch so they say I have these 10 patients each ready to go. I mean how are you going to get Opinion Leaders behind this Technology when previous attempts have failed. I would sign up the Top 100 Endo's in the US to a PreMarket Test Launch w/free drug for 10 patients each as part of my Post Launch P-4 safety/surveillance data check. What is the Marketing Plan to capture injectable share quickly w/ early inhaler adopters? Which Partners going forward would possibly RISK even a great technology? We can't get PFE off their Tuckass' to buy sure bets for a couple hundred million like EPIX...and you are hyping this proven yet Market Averse Technology like it's a sure bet! I am no Generex Pumper. I worked for Bayer Meters/ Meds/Managed Care for 22 years and I know Diabetes. I discovered my own mother's Diabetes when her quack ENDO couldn't diagnose her w/ a HbA1c=13.2 and a FPG>350. She said she was "Very Thirsty and was peeing a lot at night". That's all I needed to hear w/ a BS in Business Admin. from Maryland to know she was a diabetic!Now 86 and I found it 16 years ago! Sorry I went off on my own personal story but thats life. Diabetics are unique patients and very methodical about their care. I called on a doc in Md.years ago who would inject his belly while we shared lunch in his office.No shame! Right in front of me! Inhalers are great in Asthma/COPD but I'm less certain in Diabetes!

      I know these were all proprietary questions and I will be asked to take it on Faith, but before I place a dollar of MY MONEY rest assurred I will be vetting and asking. Under 3 is probably a good Risk/Reward on MNKD and I will take a small initial position eventually after you hype it in 6 parts but not on the runnup,thanks!

      I see that FMR pulled back from 15M to 13M shares(@2.73) as of 3/31. Janus Cap is in for 2+M @ 2.09 /share and who is LMM,LLC in Baltimore for 14M....thats a new one and I from that neck of the woods!

      Keep some of this dialogue in mind as you write the next 3 parts on MNKD! I will place a large bet when I'm largely convinced!

      Thanks,

      Frank       Jun 16 07:28 PM
    • Mannkind: Overlooked Biotech With Excellent Prospects (Part III) [view article]
      Dear AW,

      I hope you do not mind me using your initials? I just started reading your blog and I must say I am intrigued by MNKD. The science looks fine to me. My DD on the 10-Q or some other SEC doc I was reading showed a (-$100M) difference in Assets from Dec 2007 to March 2008. Could you explain where that money went? Also would they Monetize this asset and sell to a Large Pharma willing to go where others have failed or would they try to Market themselves w/ No Marketing Dept./Saleforce, etc.? These are my first couple of questions other than their accumulated debt is $1.2B and someone will need deep pockets to buy up this asset? Could you share your thoughts w/ me on these Finance/Marketing issues?

      Thanks,

      Frank       Jun 16 07:22 AM
    • European Hedge: Pharmion and Celgene [view article]
      perhaps Thalomid becomes the accepted MM component and not Revlomid due to no real differences in efficacy,safety but Thal is less expensive.In fact Celg buys Pharmion for just this reason to control both scenarios and if Vidaza comes through a huge potential plus down the road in their growth story! Thal pricing is much lower than Rev~ $65,000/years treatment. This is the concern of the EC! Thal is the accepted IMid of first choice and Rev is canabalizing and driving up MM cost of therapy! This can only go on for so long before the market takes notice! Perhaps that is why the post merger Celg price seems stuck at 56 at least in the Short term. They will need super sales reported in Q1 to catalize new growth. With MLNM on the brink of 1st line approval of Velcade in MM I do not see that happening! Mar 16 11:21 AM
    • Pfizer Should Buy Amgen or Wyeth - Credit Suisse [view article]
      do a bunch of small deals would be my option for Pfe! Pharma is changing away from mega deals like the Lipitor Deal they did several years ago. Reason being is Competition in a MC World. In a MC world formulary control becomes the driver.No one pays for a med w/ o proven benefit "Outcomes" in our Brave New World! So you mine for selected Targeted Therapies that you can adroitly market. I see this as the new Pharma paradigm. Watch Pfe buy the Mid Sized biotech who is completing Phase-3 and is before FDA pending approval on 1 or 2 candidates w/ 1 already on the market in an area that is compatible w/ their Marketing/Research Mar 16 11:03 AM
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