retiredpharma

Celldex Therapeutics: Plenty of Cash, Pending Clinical Catalysts

Mike,

I read you often and I am a bio-pharma investor! Bought Avant before the CLDX merger about 13 and sold all into the August 2008 run-up at 17-18! Got back in a bit early but average cost of shares is about 7 even w/ this bad recent downturn.

I believe in the science of CLDX but like many I am questioning the silence from management. Not sure if this is a legal thing w/ the CRGN merger but now that the merger is behind us it seems to persist!

I want to double down now and probably will no matter but would like your thoughts on this Transparency Issue...real or imagined?

retiredpharma

Cash for Clunkers May Cost Up to $45,354 Per Vehicle

math is absolutely correct!

those that took advantage are smart opportunists!

obama and congress are frauds for approving the program as it was intended originally to support the POOR who never qualify to buy up to NEW and only can afford to trade up from USED badly running to USED better running!

where is the rebate for the poor/working class who struggles as a waiter/waitress/student and drives a real clunker,one that FAILS emissions at the state DMV? these are often cars getting less than 10 MPG and if they were rebated $3500 each than we trash their old vehicle,double the MPG easilly to 20MPG,improve the air quality, get a safer vehicle on the street, and help those who REALLY NEED IT!

all other programs are BS and political!

Health Care Trends Part 2: M&A, Generic Competition, CROs

IT is already heavily employed in the docs office. I saw this in Maryland prior to retiring in 2007 and I see it now in Delaware where I currently reside. My new GP office has laptops carried by each doc which they go from room to room every 7-10 mins.

It is an assembly line practice. Billing, Insurance is all integrated!

Every bit of patient info is at their fingertips. My labs,meds, history,personals, etc is there. They can send my RX electronically to whatever Pharmacy I elect and I do not carry out a script anymore. This type of IT is becoming the RULE more and more, faster and faster especially in groups as an economy of scale intervention in a Managed Care World. To think that Obamacare is going to extract much more from this already improved model is ludicrous! They will never pay for it w/ IT improvements because IT is already there! Utilized by most every Mid-Atlantic practice and I retired in 2007 from this Industry!

Unless the rest of the country is so far behind and I doubt it,they better come up w/ another Intervention to cover the $2500/savings they promised!

What we need is more Ted Kennedies going to Duke for Brain Ca tmx paid for by US taxpayors instead of using the Massachussetts Single Payor system he championed!

Preparing Precisely for Bottoms in the Markets

Mr.Jones,

I found your article a useful read and also watch oil and treasuries to try and find a base, but I have never been able to find the " Bottom" although I have looked hard and long all my life through many market gyrations over the last 30 + years. This one is quite different to me somehow yet the similiarities are striking! I remember after 1987 in the October meltdown the same rumblings as in "I will never buy stocks again!"...heard throughout! But sure enough they did. So what if anything is different this time that makes it hard to find this base?

Lack of Trust this time! No punishments that I can see and lots who need a good spanking! Martha went to jail in the Erbitux scandal but these bankers and insurers are getting off scott free! Until this poison is sucked out of this wound it does not heal!!!

It seems like we went after the villians last time but for some reason we are actually giving them money this time around! I find that perplexing and wonder where this all shakes out. I have as low confidence as I have ever had in our Markets today and I am now 57! Been doing this for 30+ years. I have gone hard into cash,treasuries,CD's as of Fall of 2007 and only play the select Bio-Pharma companies I like due to a baby boomer assault on Healthcare that is like a tsunami coming.

I see more of the same in 2009 and this market will soon price in inherent inflation about to come and that will be the next leg down! 2 trillion more debt this time around must be calculated into your "bottom" and we are a ways off my friend!

Frank

This Recession's Not That Bad - And We're More Than Halfway Through

Sir,

-the mere implication that this recession is anything less than severe albeit not a Great Depression I would admit shows how "out of Touch" you really appear to be!

I for one retired at 55, placed all my 401-K money into CASH last November 2007 when my beautiful home in M.C., Maryland sat on the market for 7 months w/o a looksy! I knew at that time we were in serious trouble in this country and went to a very strong CASH position while all the pundits said stay invested and ride this market up! LOL!

As a business major from University of Maryland 1974 I have seen and studied these RECESSIONS before.In fact when I came out of college in 1974 jobs were hard to get! We were in a bad recessionary period than and I would actually call this recession as quite similiar! The BIG difference being we were in a high interest rate environ than.I remember buying my first home 1976 and paying about 10% on that mortgage. During the next 4 years rates went up! I remember having cash saved/banked and earning a rate of about 15% at it's peak. In fact, the 1976-1980 period was pretty bad as inflation goes! That is what I foresee for us next! Look there is no way the FED can print money...flood the banking system w/ pretend dollars and the fallout being anything less than FUTURE INFLATION! Get ready for maybe a Market Rally on Obama's win into the new year but I would be out by March 2009 at the lastest.

I strictly trade stocks in this market mostly Biotech/Pharma (my career and what I know best) and keep most money in laddered CD's and Treasuries! Also NO ONE manages my assets for me a la that THIEFF, Madoff and you should be extolling the benefits of people doing the same!

I would tell the American people the truth.This economy is in serious trouble.We have had unprecedented BANKING failures and prop-ups! We have a collapsing Housing/Auto market! We have a major corpoarte restructuring taking place and JOB LOSS will be high! I see at least 7% next year Unemployment.With that brings more foreclosure! Also we have major CC debt in this country. The only silver lining I see now is fuel prices are temporarilly down but for how long?

It's time to REIN in debt and hunker down! Save what you can,pay off all expensive debt and try to stay gainfully employed.Buy nothing on credit other than essentials! That is what you should be telling the American people along w/ EDUCATE yourself on "investments/banking" now so that you can prepare now for the next Bull Market which I see way off in time!

And never give up control of your money to anyone!

Merck/Schering-Plough's Heart Drug Couldn't Have Done Worse

Dear Dan Abshear,

give it a rest MR.PONTIFICATION!

Majority of Americans Support Ethanol

perhaps your questionnaires could have been worded like this which I am quite certain they were not...If you were aware Senator Grassley,R-Iowa and Family received million$ in Farm Subsidies would this affect your stance on Ethanol?....Or do you think it would be ethical for Senator Grassley to even vote on the $300B Farm Bill knowing his pro-corn/ethanol stance?...or Do you believe 1 gallon of Ethanol is worth 1700 gallons of fresh H2O the average amount of water nescessary to make that 1 gallon?...or When you buy a dozen eggs this year for 2.50/dozen and last year those eggs cost 1.25/dozen do you believe the Corn which goes into the feeding of chickens that lay those eggs or making Ethanol from the same corn has anything to do w/ the increased price?...you will get a different end result!!! I would say your 2:1 in favor goes to 1:2 at best!


you see like the previous posts have illuminated...How you ask and the wording can make a difference in answers! Even the American public which is not too bright would see through the Ethanol Conspiracy!

Mannkind: Overlooked Biotech With Excellent Prospects (Part VI)

AW,

Again I commend you on a fine series and admittedly you are one of the best to respond to "bloggers" concerns.Certainly many have been raised over your 6 part series. I have saved a chunk of money to commit to MNKD eventually this year but wanted to tell you "Thanks" for an enlightening series.The fact that you own shares and divulge this openly only confirms your entegrity/editorial Alpha compliance. I particularly like your quiet educated non-hostle demeanor! I do not believe you are a "Pumper", but I believe you have conviction/passion for MNKD! There is NO FAULT in that and I am one in the same!

Before I recommend personal holdings such as MLNM or KOSN two of my better picks over the years I first did my DD, committed personal funds and than tryed in vain as you do to give fair and balanced thoughts on my holdings and why I like them.

Currently I am long/and own shares in FOLD,EPIX,INFI,AVAN,CR... in bios, MHS in PBM's, and SGP,MRK,JNJ,BMY,LLY,an... PFE in large pharma.

I would be curious to read your thoughts particularly on any of my BIO's!

Thanks!

Frank

Mannkind: Overlooked Biotech With Excellent Prospects (Part IV)

AW,

I just read part 4 and left you a post on part 3..My mom is recovering from a recent setback at age 86 and I am behind in my readings. She is doing better now.

I must say the more I read your blog the more I become interested!

I gave you my list of prospects as you know and we were aligned w/ the exception of Sanofi-Aventis.Thanks for the Heads up on LA Insulin Lantus vs MannLind TI(short-immediate acting) mealtime dose.I can see your logic and must confess it has probably been discussed and SNY is awaiting the right moment in time to announce.

Does Mr. Mann really want to establish his own Sales Force..because that is a huge/expensive undertaking.Let me give you some numbers.Best Reps who know this Market plus perks are making $150,000 per year...times 1000 reps equals a startup cost=$150M...a better move would be to partner w/ a SNY for US and exUS w/ an option to develop said Nannkind Force eventually but in the meantime like NOW... start up a "Scientific Affairs Liasson" division w/ sole Scientific and NO SALES initiative. This force of say 50 officers would go out into the field to support Scientific Forum only.They would set up all phase 4 sites for post marketing and they would recruit the best Sales Reps from their geographies for the actual US Marketing push.They would attend all Diabetes Meetings and cover the Boths and Scientific Forum.They would be in touch by (Cell) w/ all US thought/opinion leaders and they would lay down the SCIENCE!

This should be done now (maybe 10-20 people) and grow over the nearterm in a small way prior to P-3 finalization to prepare for NDA to FDA.I know not if this is part of MNKD's strategy but it is the RIGHT strategy and everyone in our INDUSTRY already knows this as fact!

Please tell me I am correct or I will write to AL for you!

Mannkind: Overlooked Biotech With Excellent Prospects (Part III)

AW,

I do not mean to be so critical of your assessment of MNKD and I can assure I currently have No position in MNKD. I do not short stocks or go long..I only Buy and Sell. Upon checking shortsqueeze.com and plugging in MNKD you will see SI=19.47% of the float w/ 20 days to cover but to it's credit the previous vs current shares short are unchanged.

This stock is too risky for me but when my "Buy" signal comes I will step up to the plate and pull the trigger!

Mannkind: Overlooked Biotech With Excellent Prospects (Part III)

AW,

I nearly bought MNKD a year ago somewhere about 10-12 but hesitated...I revisited again 6 months ago and 3 months ago and now I am back revisiting again($2-$3). From 10 to 3 in 1 year is about 75% down my friend!!!

I will buy but I will buy below todays close and after your 6 part series! You make valid, strong and Intelligent points on MNKD! I think it goes lower and like you say w/ FDA approval it's a 2x or 3x easilly! What partner are you imagining for MNKD! I look at Bayer and JNJ who are big in Meters,BMY,GSK,LLY,etc in meds....I would think this would be a BIG PARTNER w/ DEEP POCKETS who appreciates what this LAUNCH must look like to be successful.

I mean I can see launch costing $250M? and I'm guessing based on my career experience launching>25 drugs....but, due to past history w/ PFE,NN and LLY pulling the plug, it will need to be massive at a time when NO ONE wants Direct to Consumer...look at SGP pulling the TV spots on Vytorin/Zetia post ENHANCE...come on I can go on and on why this is going to be a really tough row to hoe!!!

Mannkind: Overlooked Biotech With Excellent Prospects (Part III)

Dear AW,

I believe I said I like the Diabetes Science of Mannkind. I am a prospect to buy not a basher and my MLNM and KOSN windfalls are waiting to be placed other than in my current FOLD,CRIS and EPIX. I currently hold pharmas as well including those getting hammered such as SGP,MRK,JNJ,PFE,LLY and BMY.

My skepticism over MNKD has to do with financials but I could be convinced with your Honest and Forthwright appraisal as to such large cummulative debt as the current $1.2B...what I consider a very large and rapid burn rate as well...I worked in pharma for 33 years so you need not convince me of the high cost of Drug Development.

I need hard numbers going forward as to what the Prelaunch plan w/ Endo's and PC/IM will be after 3 companies pulled the plug on similiar yet "Inferior" technologies.How do you get them on board before launch so they say I have these 10 patients each ready to go. I mean how are you going to get Opinion Leaders behind this Technology when previous attempts have failed. I would sign up the Top 100 Endo's in the US to a PreMarket Test Launch w/free drug for 10 patients each as part of my Post Launch P-4 safety/surveillance data check. What is the Marketing Plan to capture injectable share quickly w/ early inhaler adopters? Which Partners going forward would possibly RISK even a great technology? We can't get PFE off their Tuckass' to buy sure bets for a couple hundred million like EPIX...and you are hyping this proven yet Market Averse Technology like it's a sure bet! I am no Generex Pumper. I worked for Bayer Meters/ Meds/Managed Care for 22 years and I know Diabetes. I discovered my own mother's Diabetes when her quack ENDO couldn't diagnose her w/ a HbA1c=13.2 and a FPG>350. She said she was "Very Thirsty and was peeing a lot at night". That's all I needed to hear w/ a BS in Business Admin. from Maryland to know she was a diabetic!Now 86 and I found it 16 years ago! Sorry I went off on my own personal story but thats life. Diabetics are unique patients and very methodical about their care. I called on a doc in Md.years ago who would inject his belly while we shared lunch in his office.No shame! Right in front of me! Inhalers are great in Asthma/COPD but I'm less certain in Diabetes!

I know these were all proprietary questions and I will be asked to take it on Faith, but before I place a dollar of MY MONEY rest assurred I will be vetting and asking. Under 3 is probably a good Risk/Reward on MNKD and I will take a small initial position eventually after you hype it in 6 parts but not on the runnup,thanks!

I see that FMR pulled back from 15M to 13M shares(@2.73) as of 3/31. Janus Cap is in for 2+M @ 2.09 /share and who is LMM,LLC in Baltimore for 14M....thats a new one and I from that neck of the woods!

Keep some of this dialogue in mind as you write the next 3 parts on MNKD! I will place a large bet when I'm largely convinced!

Thanks,

Frank

Mannkind: Overlooked Biotech With Excellent Prospects (Part III)

Dear AW,

I hope you do not mind me using your initials? I just started reading your blog and I must say I am intrigued by MNKD. The science looks fine to me. My DD on the 10-Q or some other SEC doc I was reading showed a (-$100M) difference in Assets from Dec 2007 to March 2008. Could you explain where that money went? Also would they Monetize this asset and sell to a Large Pharma willing to go where others have failed or would they try to Market themselves w/ No Marketing Dept./Saleforce, etc.? These are my first couple of questions other than their accumulated debt is $1.2B and someone will need deep pockets to buy up this asset? Could you share your thoughts w/ me on these Finance/Marketing issues?

Thanks,

Frank

European Hedge: Pharmion and Celgene

perhaps Thalomid becomes the accepted MM component and not Revlomid due to no real differences in efficacy,safety but Thal is less expensive.In fact Celg buys Pharmion for just this reason to control both scenarios and if Vidaza comes through a huge potential plus down the road in their growth story! Thal pricing is much lower than Rev~ $65,000/years treatment. This is the concern of the EC! Thal is the accepted IMid of first choice and Rev is canabalizing and driving up MM cost of therapy! This can only go on for so long before the market takes notice! Perhaps that is why the post merger Celg price seems stuck at 56 at least in the Short term. They will need super sales reported in Q1 to catalize new growth. With MLNM on the brink of 1st line approval of Velcade in MM I do not see that happening!

Pfizer Should Buy Amgen or Wyeth - Credit Suisse

do a bunch of small deals would be my option for Pfe! Pharma is changing away from mega deals like the Lipitor Deal they did several years ago. Reason being is Competition in a MC World. In a MC world formulary control becomes the driver.No one pays for a med w/ o proven benefit "Outcomes" in our Brave New World! So you mine for selected Targeted Therapies that you can adroitly market. I see this as the new Pharma paradigm. Watch Pfe buy the Mid Sized biotech who is completing Phase-3 and is before FDA pending approval on 1 or 2 candidates w/ 1 already on the market in an area that is compatible w/ their Marketing/Research