retiredpharma

Preparing Precisely for Bottoms in the Markets

Mr.Jones,

I found your article a useful read and also watch oil and treasuries to try and find a base, but I have never been able to find the " Bottom" although I have looked hard and long all my life through many market gyrations over the last 30 + years. This one is quite different to me somehow yet the similiarities are striking! I remember after 1987 in the October meltdown the same rumblings as in "I will never buy stocks again!"...heard throughout! But sure enough they did. So what if anything is different this time that makes it hard to find this base?

Lack of Trust this time! No punishments that I can see and lots who need a good spanking! Martha went to jail in the Erbitux scandal but these bankers and insurers are getting off scott free! Until this poison is sucked out of this wound it does not heal!!!

It seems like we went after the villians last time but for some reason we are actually giving them money this time around! I find that perplexing and wonder where this all shakes out. I have as low confidence as I have ever had in our Markets today and I am now 57! Been doing this for 30+ years. I have gone hard into cash,treasuries,CD's as of Fall of 2007 and only play the select Bio-Pharma companies I like due to a baby boomer assault on Healthcare that is like a tsunami coming.

I see more of the same in 2009 and this market will soon price in inherent inflation about to come and that will be the next leg down! 2 trillion more debt this time around must be calculated into your "bottom" and we are a ways off my friend!

Frank

This Recession's Not That Bad - And We're More Than Halfway Through

Sir,

-the mere implication that this recession is anything less than severe albeit not a Great Depression I would admit shows how "out of Touch" you really appear to be!

I for one retired at 55, placed all my 401-K money into CASH last November 2007 when my beautiful home in M.C., Maryland sat on the market for 7 months w/o a looksy! I knew at that time we were in serious trouble in this country and went to a very strong CASH position while all the pundits said stay invested and ride this market up! LOL!

As a business major from University of Maryland 1974 I have seen and studied these RECESSIONS before.In fact when I came out of college in 1974 jobs were hard to get! We were in a bad recessionary period than and I would actually call this recession as quite similiar! The BIG difference being we were in a high interest rate environ than.I remember buying my first home 1976 and paying about 10% on that mortgage. During the next 4 years rates went up! I remember having cash saved/banked and earning a rate of about 15% at it's peak. In fact, the 1976-1980 period was pretty bad as inflation goes! That is what I foresee for us next! Look there is no way the FED can print money...flood the banking system w/ pretend dollars and the fallout being anything less than FUTURE INFLATION! Get ready for maybe a Market Rally on Obama's win into the new year but I would be out by March 2009 at the lastest.

I strictly trade stocks in this market mostly Biotech/Pharma (my career and what I know best) and keep most money in laddered CD's and Treasuries! Also NO ONE manages my assets for me a la that THIEFF, Madoff and you should be extolling the benefits of people doing the same!

I would tell the American people the truth.This economy is in serious trouble.We have had unprecedented BANKING failures and prop-ups! We have a collapsing Housing/Auto market! We have a major corpoarte restructuring taking place and JOB LOSS will be high! I see at least 7% next year Unemployment.With that brings more foreclosure! Also we have major CC debt in this country. The only silver lining I see now is fuel prices are temporarilly down but for how long?

It's time to REIN in debt and hunker down! Save what you can,pay off all expensive debt and try to stay gainfully employed.Buy nothing on credit other than essentials! That is what you should be telling the American people along w/ EDUCATE yourself on "investments/banking" now so that you can prepare now for the next Bull Market which I see way off in time!

And never give up control of your money to anyone!