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  • Another Bank Stock With 50% Upside Potential, More Appealing To Me Than Bank Of America [View article]
    I believe they only sought a divvy increase once, two years ago. Last year, they didn't. Their capital plan, approved by the regulator, totaled $10.5B in buybacks to reduce common and preferred share count, and this was approved. This increased shareholder value by at least 7% improvement in EPS in 2013. It also set the stage for what's fairly widely expected to be a divvy increase request in 2014. Whether this is approved or not, we'll know in about three months. My guess is it will be. If BAC pays the same divvy as BOCH, tripling their current one, that'll be less that .75% yield (using today's $16.50-ish share price). If they pay the same yield as BOCH, that's $0.33 annually from BAC, compared with BOCH's $0.12. With a current payout ratio for BAC of only 6.25, if you believe BOCH is poised to increase their divvy with a 26.7 ratio, you'd have to think BAC is more so.

    I know you favor the "bird in hand" approach to divvies, and I agree with it, in general, particularly if current income is important. And I don't have any reason to think BOCH couldn't be a good investment for the long term. But I think BAC is in a special situation, still recovering from bad decisions and bad luck, and total return for the next two - five years is in BAC's favor.
    Jan 7, 2014. 01:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital (NLY): Q4 earnings of $0.46 beats by $0.11. Book value/share of $15.86. Shares +0.3% AH. (PR[View news story]
    I don't think the results are misleading, but the headline certainly is!

    I've been following your commentary for well over a year now, RS, and respect your perspective and analysis of Annaly. I've written elsewhere that with these results, we have seen the floor put in to NLY last quarter in the $13's, and, with the yield spread wideing since year-end, CPR trending lower YoY and QoQ and maybe that continuing in 2013, we might even see a divvy increase this quarter, depending on how they treat leverage (which was up YoY and QoQ).

    I think, in any case, the stock should provide a solid total return.

    What do you think? (I'm sure you're probably writing your next analysis even as I write this!)
    Feb 6, 2013. 05:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly: Getting Lulled Into A False Sense Of Security [View article]
    @AggGrow regarding "all the refi's are done!"

    I refinanced earlier this year, through Quicken Loan, from 5 5/8 to 4 1/4%. Saved a couple hundred dollars and happy with the monthly payment. I got a call two weeks ago--from Quicken--to see if I was interested in refinancing again, dropping the rate to 3 3/4% and saving an additional $70 monthly. No fees (well minimal fees) as they absorb them. I asked, "How can you do this?" The reply was that, since I was an existing customer (they had held the mortgage to service it), they can apply some of the expenses they'd normally use for new customer acquisition and still come out ahead than trying to gain a new customer.

    I didn't mean to get into the mechanics of it, or my decision. I just wanted to note that refi's can still be happening, even after a lot of refinancing has occurred.
    Jan 4, 2013. 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital Management - Love It Or Hate It? [View article]
    I'm curious as to why you didn't do the final calculation to finish your comparative analysis between NLY and SPY over the ten-year period.

    You show SPY with a total return of 98.3%.

    Using the same methodology:

    Capital gain = $16.64-16.45 = $0.19
    Total dividends (40 from Oct 4, 2002 - Oct 4, 2012) = $18.57

    NLY total return is 114.04%
    Oct 8, 2012. 07:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly (NLY) announces the repurchase of $600M in 4% convertible senior notes due in 2015. Lengthening the average days to maturity of its repo agreements, the move is in line with the firm's typical conservative financing aims. The company also announces an offering of Series D preferred shares. Market chatter has these set to be priced around 7.5%. [View news story]
    kingdad, I'd give you 10 "Likes" if I could; well said substance, and good humor, too!
    Sep 6, 2012. 03:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly: I Am Looking For A Big Quarter [View article]
    Well, RS, assuming you and the consensus were referring to non-GAAP EPS of $0.53 and $0.49 respectively, this is a beat.

    "Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) today reported GAAP net loss for the quarter ended June 30, 2012 of $91.2 million or $0.10 per average common share as compared to GAAP net income of $120.8 million or $0.14 per average common share for the quarter ended June 30, 2011, and GAAP net income of $901.8 million or $0.92 per average common share for the quarter ended March 31, 2012.

    Without the effect of the unrealized gains or losses on interest rate swaps and Agency interest-only mortgage-backed securities, net income for the quarter ended June 30, 2012, was $546.2 million or $0.55 per average common share as compared to $587.5 million or $0.71 per average common share for the quarter ended June 30, 2011, and $529.3 million or $0.54 per average common share for the quarter ended March 31, 2012."
    Aug 1, 2012. 04:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Buy And Hold Strategies Do Not Mean Never Taking A Profit [View article]
    Ah, to trim or not to trim, that is the question! Had I followed my "gut," I'd have trimmed PM and MO a year ago, 6 months ago, 3 months ago, a month ago, and yesterday. Instead, I "let the winners run," and am glad to have done so. I "get" the idea, but really love the compounding (another issue, I know) that I enjoy from the buy and reinvest and hold from these consistent divvy payers. I suppose there are ways to employ a "trimming" strategy, but, for me, this would be connected to more cyclical businesses.

    Aug 1, 2012. 11:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Winter Is Coming - Natural Gas Prices Must Rise [View article]
    Thanks for your article, Glenn. I really appreciate your analysis--and your reference to the Game!

    Any specific companies you'd advise taking a look at to benefit from your forecast. I'd been UNG (not a company, I know) and really misunderstood it. My belief now is that it's almost immune to the trends, since it's using futures and, well, I don't understand it. Never should have bought any, but maybe learned that lesson, at least (don't buy what I don't understand). I do understand (I think) trends, though, and that's why I'm wondering about your thoughts.
    Jul 25, 2012. 08:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly: Avoiding This Stock Is Ridiculous [View article]
    RS, I missed the "Plague" article you referenced; could you provide a link?
    Jul 7, 2012. 09:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: The Share Price Is Ready To Rise [View article]
    As you rightly point out, it's very important to remember that this WILL be a bumpy ride, as BAC, in particular, seems highly sensitive to market news. This could make this an ideal trading vehicle, just going with the trends, which seem to be moving up again, over the past week+. I know you're advocating the longer term (and I'm in with stock and long-dated bullish options, so I agree), but I can also anticipate the wailing and gnashing of teeth, here at SA and in other forums that track the stock.

    Nice work, RS, on a simple and straightforward thesis.

    Jun 19, 2012. 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly: Is A Dividend Increase At Hand? [View article]
    Thanks, RS, for your continuing coverage of NLY. Yours and a couple of others here at SA is about the only ongoing analysis of any depth I can find anywhere

    Jun 14, 2012. 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Checking In With The Hospitality REIT Equities - My Top 3 Picks [View article]
    I've been invested in PEB for around 10 months, getting in near its low last year. It seems to have similar characteristics and profile with the three you mentioned. Your thoughts?
    May 24, 2012. 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Frontier-Verizon Deal Comes Under Fire From Unions [View article]
    It's been strongly implied, if not outright stated by Frontier management, that the divvy would likely need to be reduced to help in handling the debt load they'll incur. The nature of this company will change with this deal. I've been a holder for nearly 4 years, originally attracted by the then-7% or so yield. Having received $3.50 in divvy payments in that time period, my cost basis is still under water of the current share price. I'm inclined to continue to hold, though, as I believe the deal will improve the company's growth prospects, as described in the article.
    Apr 8, 2010. 02:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More Droids Than iPhones Sold in First 74 Days [View article]
    Note, also, that according to the actual language in the article, the iPhone "...sold 1 million devices..." and the Droid "...shipped more devices...". Big difference, so either the iPhone outsold the Droid, or the author used very imprecise and misleading words.
    Mar 17, 2010. 08:44 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The iPhone: Lessons on Industry Pricing Power [View article]
    I think you've missed an important point when it comes to the pricing of Apple's iPhone. They're still getting the $500 and $600 price for it. The $99, $199, and $299 prices you cite are subsidized by the phone carriers (and ultimately, the customer via their monthly bill).
    Jun 10, 2009. 09:08 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment