long_on_oil

Case-Shiller Still Predicts Massive 45% Fall from Today’s Values

This graph is worthless because it does not take into account the decline in the dollar. Hard assets are going to attract all these worthless dollars and home prices will go up not down. The dollar is down over 18% from its high so home prices will have to go up 18% just to break even. Stocks are going up because foreigners holding dollars are buying U.S companies and real estate with their worthless dollars. The huge debt the Obama administration is placing on us will only make it worse.
During times of increasing inflation hard assets and collectibles go up because people are seeking a safe haven for their money.

Berkshire Hathaway Stock Portfolio: At Risk of Resembling an Index Fund?

BRKB opened the year at $3205, it is now $3403 that is a gain of 6.17% so Berkshire is doing a damn poor job of keeping up with the Dow. As an owner for over 5 years the recent performance when compared with any of the main indexes, is very disappointing.
I hold this dog because of the potential not the current performance. I keep thinking someday this stock has to have a major breakout but only God knows when.

Has Buffett Lost His Mind?

Justifying a purchase you want is easy, it's human nature. Have you ever purchased a new car? There is no justification of buying a new car over a good used one when it comes to costs but we do it anyway. We enjoy eating depreciation expense.
I am a long time owner of BRK and the purchase of BNI is not upsetting to me. What upsets me is that BRK can't keep up with the market during this latest recovery and Buffet refuses to pay a dividend. He once said that if he could not find a way to make a decent return on cash then he would start paying dividends and let the stockholders try their hand. Well, IMO that time has come.

Berkshire Well Positioned for Buffett's Prediction on Electric Cars

I am sure we will all be able to replace our cars the next 20 years..BS
Just look at all the cars on the road today that were built before 1989. The poor are driving them and that is not going to change. The headaches associated with recycling batteries plus producing enough lithem to make the heavy batteries needed to propel the weight of an auto holding 4 adults will be cost prohibitive.
The government would love to put us all in those little phoo phoo cars so more of us get killed and they can get us off social security and the new national health insurance.
Gasoline will have to hit $7 a gallon and stay there for an extended period of time before this happens.
The catch-22 kicks in as we switch to alternate energy; the price of gasoline will fall making it harder to switch.

The Oil Casino: SEC Heading for Monte Carlo, Part III

Great article, just goes to show that our society is no different than the individuals that make up the society. By that I mean we tend to put off the inevitable until the bitter end. "Never do today what you can put off until tomorrow" seems to be societies slogan.
We all read articles daily about the validity of the peak oil theory. I watched the videos listed in a prior post about the earth having an unlimited supply of oil and came to the conclusion that if we do have unlimited oil, can we afford to bring it to market?
Peak oil or not one fact is certain, in the future oil is going to be very expensive to capture and refine.
It is articles like this that reassure me that having 35% of my portfolio in oil related stocks like BP, SU, RIG and NOV is a smart move for the long term.
keep up the good work.

And Bernanke Didn't Think Unemployment Would Reach 10%

Sunnsea you are apparently a young man and the product of your liberal education. You need to study what really happened during the 80's and early 90's instead of following your liberal professors like the lemmings to the sea. Reagan made it possible for small companies to create jobs by giving tax incentives to encourage capital spending and hiring. Enterprise zones were created, taxes were cut and inflation was tamed. The Berlin wall came down and the United States was respected around the world. We weren't loved but we were respected.
The government Reagan hated eventually became what we have today thanks to our liberal educational institutions.

And Bernanke Didn't Think Unemployment Would Reach 10%

My God, we have been through this once before when Reagan got elected. For Petes sake politicians, swallow your pride and do what Reagan did. His plan set us on a path to recovery and prosperity that lasted over 20 years. We all know what he did now all we have to do is replicate it.

How Warren Buffett Is Smarter than the G20

I keep reading about deflation but when I go to the grocery store or get my monthly bills they all keep going up. Electric rates have gone up 25%, natural gas is down but my monthly bill sure doesn't reflect it. I just received my yearly homeowners insurance bill and it is up about 15%.
So gasoline is down a little from last year but it is way up compared to 3 years ago. Gold is at an all time high and commodities keep going up. We all know where health care is headed.
The only thing I know that has deflated is my weight and it is only down 1%...lol

What are you proponents of deflation smoking?

Intrinsic Value and Warren Buffett's BNSF Purchase

BNI management knows they are being acquired by a hands off owner so that is appealing to them. I love reading these Buffet articles where everyone is a mind reader. You can bet one thing and that is Buffet knows exactly what the intrinsic value is and he will not overpay for the acquisition.
We owners of BRK know this, that is why we own BRK in the first place. We have not kept BRK the past 2 years for the capital gains, that is for sure. If you were to put BNI together today you can bet it would cost way more than $200 a share. Heck, you couldn't purchase 32,000 miles of right of way and lay the tracks for that.

Berkshire + Burlington = Hypocrisy, Expediency and Full Dose of Ego?

If you don't like the TV show turn the channel. If you don't like Buffets decision then sell your shares. The way I see it he is giving 15% of Berkshire to increase earnings 40%. He not only gets rid of cheap dollars, he buys a great company with a greater future. BNI earnings based on 1.55 million outstanding BRK shares = $1200 per share. BRK's last 4 quarters earnings=$2935 per share based on yahoo earnings info.
Probably way to simplistic.

Transocean Earnings Analysis: A Buy at Current Levels

Yuck lets hope Seeking Alpha's posts don't become like Yahoos messenger. Hopefully SA will find a way to keep posts like the first two from becoming part of the article.
That being said, this is a great article and as a RIG stockholder I look forward to many more. I really like the fundamentals of RIG, I am a long time stockholder and hopefully one day I will break even again...lol
As a stockholder it would be nice to see some kind of special dividend but a nice bump in the stock price would be even better.
Keep up the good work.

Buffett's Big Rail Buy: What It Means for Berkshire Shareholders

Peak oil will force us "back to the future". Most of us will not be alive, but eventually the decline in oil will force trucks off the road and we will be using more rail. The old spurs will once again reemerge and small towns will have trains coming and going. Every Wal Mart will have a spur and most of the trucks going to small towns will disappear. We will be forced to move goods the cheapest way possible and that will be rail
Instead of getting our orders the next day we will have to wait until the next train comes to town.
This is a brilliant move by an old timer that sees the future but will not be around to live it.

Buffett Buys Burlington, Does 50-1 Split at Berkshire

Allowing small investors the ability to purchase BRK shares is a great move. If you are funding a 401k or IRA you will now be able to purchase several shares of BRKB per month rather than having to save your money just to buy one share. I see no negative to this move.
Its not like Wal Mart where the shares are so diluted that the price hasn't moved in 10 years. This move will propel BRKBs to a $5,000 equivalent which is $100 post split. I have owned BRK for some time now and I am elated.
However, I do feel this should be the last split because this sets the stage for market saturation and dilution and that is not good for the shareholders.

How Auto Bailout Is Punishing Ford

The government taking over public corporations has to be unconstitutional but who is going to file the test case. The American public should be outraged over these take overs. We are now looking at companies that will suffer huge losses like the post office. The government will subsidize the publics auto purchases much to the detriment of Ford.
The only way we can stop this is for the public to totally stop buying GM products no matter what the government offers in incentives. We have to insure the success of Ford because once Ford is gone Honda and Toyota will be the next companies in the governments sights.

We are just sitting back and watching this creeping socialism take over. I shutter to think of where this robbing us of our freedom is going to end.

Gold Is Not in a Bull Market

GLD is the ETF for going long on gold, is there an EFT for shorting gold?