McEwen Mining Is A Bet On The Man At The Helm [View article]
You did the smart thing, move first and then ask questions from a place of safety. We are facing options expiry, end of quarter rebalancing, gold falling back toward 1320 and an important FOMC meeting all at the same time. So we could speculate on reasons for a while.
MUX has been a dog with a million fleas for a couple of years and has fallen more than most of the other miners. I thought the long suffering bugs had abandoned this one until I saw this article. There may be some bottom picking happening .. or... I checked the short position, which is still at least 10% of the float, so there might be some covering this week. But we retail people usually don't get the "why" until much later, if at all.
McEwen Mining Is A Bet On The Man At The Helm [View article]
The stock is a disaster. Argentina is not stable, it's aggressively moving against miners. See today's news. It will take McEwen years to recover from that mess. The sooner he cuts his losses the better. Meanwhile, costs are rising and the prices of metals is falling. MUX is headed for the pink sheets.
Natural Gas Demand Grows Strongly As Production Remains Flat, Prices Poised To Rise [View article]
Thanks Paul, I expect price compression to continue, making trading tough. Production is stable around 65 Bcf/d. I expect storage to get close to 3.8 Tcf, ample for a normal winter. Unless we get a 'cane in the western GOM, should be a boring summer for natgas.
Natural Gas Demand Grows Strongly As Production Remains Flat, Prices Poised To Rise [View article]
Bentek breaks out the production in detail and publishes the dry gas number. Even their free stuff has decent updates during the week including outages, area production and demand changes etc. They update their database constantly, adding more points as facilities come into production etc.
Other sources publish production numbers at some point from the wellhead to the processing facilities and include NGLS, condensates etc. http://bit.ly/N1Xiph/ look for the news blurbs labeled supply/demand balance analytic report.
Natural Gas Demand Grows Strongly As Production Remains Flat, Prices Poised To Rise [View article]
You need to read the articles already written last year explaining these same points. Richard Zeits did a good job, so you don't even have to leave SA. The rig count is irrelevant for a number of reasons. 1. Rigs designated as targeting liquids or oil produce large amounts of methane. 2. Rigs are designated somewhat arbitrarily. Last year, CHK changed 30 wells designated gas to liquids without moving them. Think about it. From another board: " On the Baker Hughes interactive rig count map, I count 30 wells drilling for the Utica in Ohio ... 23 "oil rigs" and 7 "gas rigs". Now if you look at all the Utica oil and gas produced in 2012 (as recently published by the state) ... if all that production was from a single huge well, it would be classified as a gas well." ... That which we call a rose by any other name would smell as sweet ... " Pothole Dodger
3. Rigs that drilled 1 well every 45 days 3 years ago are drilling a well every 12 to 15 days now. So 350 rigs are as effective today as 700 to 1000 were 2-3 years ago. We drilled fewer than 9k wells in Texas in 2011. We drilled over 15k in 2012.
The "near future" collapse of production idea is funny since it has been touted on SA for nearly 2 years now. Keep watching those production stats.
Natural Gas Demand Grows Strongly As Production Remains Flat, Prices Poised To Rise [View article]
UPDATE 1-EIA raises U.S. natgas production estimate for 2013
Tue, Jun 11 12:56 PM EDT
* EIA sees 2013 gas output at record-high 70.01 bcfd
* 2013 gas demand seen up 0.36 bcfd (0.5 pct) from 2012
NEW YORK, June 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday raised its estimate for domestic natural gas production in 2013, saying it expected output this year to be up about 1.2 percent from 2012's record-high levels.
In its June Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA said it expected marketed natural gas production in 2013 to rise by 0.83 billion cubic feet per day to a record 70.01 bcf per day, up from its May outlook of 69.9 bcf daily.
If the forecast is realized, it would be the third straight year of record production.
Domestic output in 2014 is expected to set another record high, up 0.37 bcf daily to 70.38 bcf per day.
Bentek updates during the week and shows dry gas production near all time highs. It's not dropping as the author and others assume.
It appears that the rig count fallacy is still strong. The scoreboard shows how wrong you are. Production is up and price is down.
Should You Be Concerned About The Dividend Offer From Enerplus? [View article]
ERF was a royalty trust (Canada's first) until 2011. The dividend was higher. The Canroys were great investment vehicles until the 2006 "Halloween Massacre". Political risk is not limited to third world countries.
Compare the dividend to that of beaten down US royalty trusts: PER, SDT, SDR, and CHKR. They have similarly ugly charts that may be turning higher.
Should You Be Concerned About The Dividend Offer From Enerplus? [View article]
High dividends come with risk. The natgas producers suffer when prices fall, when interest rates rise and when the stock market corrects. Throw in tax and regulatory risk if you like.
Natgas prices are stabilizing http://bit.ly/17Zzu0g Treasury yields are becoming more volatile. The stock market appears to be trying to correct. It would be annoying to say the least to gain a 7% dividend only to lose 10-20% in a market correction.
Does ERF issue a K-1 still? If yes, add accounting nuisance to the list of reasons to ponder this before buying.
Henry Hub's Natural Gas Commodity Break-Out Has Legs: It's A U.S. Proxy [View article]
The short answer is: The Thompson Reuters graph shows the net position of the managed money "key speculator" group and this is clearly printed on the graph.
You and the author make some incorrect assumptions about the swap dealer data. For example you ascribe all of it to speculation. It most definitely is not.
"Nuclear power generation spiked 1900 GW over the last 48 hours, displacing 2.6 BCF/day of natural gas demand. Outages currently stand at 13,600 MW, down from both the 17,400 MW this time last year and the 14,700 MW five-year average. As the summer cooling season shifts into gear, this is an unfortunate development for natural gas powerburn demand, already suffering a 4-6 BCF/day year-over-year decline due to cheaper coal prices." Powerburn updates nearly every day with a comprehensive analysis. Bentek updates frequently with production and demand data. http://bit.ly/N1Xiph/
The Utica Shale Does Not Seem To Be The Ace Up This Producer's Sleeve [View article]
The facts refute your poor analysis. I didn't follow all of your links. You didn't read them with comprehension. Or worse, you read them and left out the bits that you didn't like.
The Utica Shale Does Not Seem To Be The Ace Up This Producer's Sleeve [View article]
There is a lack of infrastructure in the Utica. Pipe and processing are coming later this year. So CHK says:" that in the Utica Shale (eastern Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia): Chesapeake is currently operating 14 rigs in the Utica Shale play. As of March 31, 2013, Chesapeake had drilled a total of 249 wells in the Utica, which included 66 producing wells, 86 additional wells waiting on pipeline connection and 97 wells in various stages of completion."
Once the processing facilities and additional pipelines are ready, production and profits will increase rapidly.
HK faces a similar constraint : Floyd Wilson, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, commented, "I am excited with our early stage Utica/Point Pleasant results. Our position in this part of the Utica/Point Pleasant play is highly prospective, in my opinion, and these results further validate our original thesis. ...... HHalcón Field Services continues to evaluate infrastructure solutions and will be prepared to act accordingly based on the information we gather throughout our delineation phase."
These facts were not the article, I hope they help the readers.
Natural Gas: Last Month's Rally Review And Near-Term Outlook [View article]
I'm less inclined to try to figure out how speculators think. The COT data shows them leaving for the past 3 weeks as both open interest and volumes declined. UNG volume has been lower this week. The beta chasers won't stay for decreasing ranges.
LDCs have to meet their FERC imposed requirements for storage. They are bidding for the physical gas and hedging. I think they are aiming for an ending storage number in the 3.7 to 3.9 Tcf range and that means they need to average 75 Bcf per week. Demand from residential/commercial and generation has done the seasonal fade and is less than last year, so injections can average 95-100 Bcf per week until July without pushing prices very much. Price compression is reducing interest both from the trade and the SA article writers/commenters lol.
McEwen Mining Is A Bet On The Man At The Helm [View article]
MUX has been a dog with a million fleas for a couple of years and has fallen more than most of the other miners. I thought the long suffering bugs had abandoned this one until I saw this article.
There may be some bottom picking happening .. or... I checked the short position, which is still at least 10% of the float, so there might be some covering this week. But we retail people usually don't get the "why" until much later, if at all.
Good hunting
McEwen Mining Is A Bet On The Man At The Helm [View article]
Natural Gas Demand Grows Strongly As Production Remains Flat, Prices Poised To Rise [View article]
I expect price compression to continue, making trading tough. Production is stable around 65 Bcf/d. I expect storage to get close to 3.8 Tcf, ample for a normal winter. Unless we get a 'cane in the western GOM, should be a boring summer for natgas.
Natural Gas Demand Grows Strongly As Production Remains Flat, Prices Poised To Rise [View article]
Other sources publish production numbers at some point from the wellhead to the processing facilities and include NGLS, condensates etc.
http://bit.ly/N1Xiph/ look for the news blurbs labeled supply/demand balance analytic report.
Natural Gas Demand Grows Strongly As Production Remains Flat, Prices Poised To Rise [View article]
The rig count is irrelevant for a number of reasons. 1. Rigs designated as targeting liquids or oil produce large amounts of methane.
2. Rigs are designated somewhat arbitrarily. Last year, CHK changed 30 wells designated gas to liquids without moving them. Think about it.
From another board: " On the Baker Hughes interactive rig count map, I count 30 wells drilling for the Utica in Ohio ... 23 "oil rigs" and 7 "gas rigs". Now if you look at all the Utica oil and gas produced in 2012 (as recently published by the state) ... if all that production was from a single huge well, it would be classified as a gas well."
... That which we call a rose by any other name would smell as sweet ... " Pothole Dodger
3. Rigs that drilled 1 well every 45 days 3 years ago are drilling a well every 12 to 15 days now. So 350 rigs are as effective today as 700 to 1000 were 2-3 years ago. We drilled fewer than 9k wells in Texas in 2011. We drilled over 15k in 2012.
The "near future" collapse of production idea is funny since it has been touted on SA for nearly 2 years now. Keep watching those production stats.
Natural Gas Demand Grows Strongly As Production Remains Flat, Prices Poised To Rise [View article]
Tue, Jun 11 12:56 PM EDT
* EIA sees 2013 gas output at record-high 70.01 bcfd
* 2013 gas demand seen up 0.36 bcfd (0.5 pct) from 2012
NEW YORK, June 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday raised its estimate for domestic natural gas production in 2013, saying it expected output this year to be up about 1.2 percent from 2012's record-high levels.
In its June Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA said it expected marketed natural gas production in 2013 to rise by 0.83 billion cubic feet per day to a record 70.01 bcf per day, up from its May outlook of 69.9 bcf daily.
If the forecast is realized, it would be the third straight year of record production.
Domestic output in 2014 is expected to set another record high, up 0.37 bcf daily to 70.38 bcf per day.
Bentek updates during the week and shows dry gas production near all time highs. It's not dropping as the author and others assume.
It appears that the rig count fallacy is still strong. The scoreboard shows how wrong you are. Production is up and price is down.
Should You Be Concerned About The Dividend Offer From Enerplus? [View article]
Compare the dividend to that of beaten down US royalty trusts: PER, SDT, SDR, and CHKR. They have similarly ugly charts that may be turning higher.
Should You Be Concerned About The Dividend Offer From Enerplus? [View article]
The natgas producers suffer when prices fall, when interest rates rise and when the stock market corrects. Throw in tax and regulatory risk if you like.
Natgas prices are stabilizing http://bit.ly/17Zzu0g
Treasury yields are becoming more volatile.
The stock market appears to be trying to correct.
It would be annoying to say the least to gain a 7% dividend only to lose 10-20% in a market correction.
Does ERF issue a K-1 still? If yes, add accounting nuisance to the list of reasons to ponder this before buying.
Henry Hub's Natural Gas Commodity Break-Out Has Legs: It's A U.S. Proxy [View article]
The COT tables can be found here in readable format. http://1.usa.gov/15if8IR
You and the author make some incorrect assumptions about the swap dealer data. For example you ascribe all of it to speculation. It most definitely is not.
Henry Hub's Natural Gas Commodity Break-Out Has Legs: It's A U.S. Proxy [View article]
Natural Gas Plunges After Failed Test Of Range Top, Outlook Unchanged As Deficit Holds Steady [View article]
"Nuclear power generation spiked 1900 GW over the last 48 hours, displacing 2.6 BCF/day of natural gas demand. Outages currently stand at 13,600 MW, down from both the 17,400 MW this time last year and the 14,700 MW five-year average. As the summer cooling season shifts into gear, this is an unfortunate development for natural gas powerburn demand, already suffering a 4-6 BCF/day year-over-year decline due to cheaper coal prices."
Powerburn updates nearly every day with a comprehensive analysis.
Bentek updates frequently with production and demand data. http://bit.ly/N1Xiph/
Bakken Update: The Top Eagle Ford Wells Of All Time Are Moving To The Bakken [View article]
The Utica Shale Does Not Seem To Be The Ace Up This Producer's Sleeve [View article]
The Utica Shale Does Not Seem To Be The Ace Up This Producer's Sleeve [View article]
Once the processing facilities and additional pipelines are ready, production and profits will increase rapidly.
HK faces a similar constraint : Floyd Wilson, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, commented, "I am excited with our early stage Utica/Point Pleasant results. Our position in this part of the Utica/Point Pleasant play is highly prospective, in my opinion, and these results further validate our original thesis. ...... HHalcón Field Services continues to evaluate infrastructure solutions and will be prepared to act accordingly based on the information we gather throughout our delineation phase."
These facts were not the article, I hope they help the readers.
http://bit.ly/11gbcW4
http://bit.ly/16fhzls
Natural Gas: Last Month's Rally Review And Near-Term Outlook [View article]
LDCs have to meet their FERC imposed requirements for storage. They are bidding for the physical gas and hedging. I think they are aiming for an ending storage number in the 3.7 to 3.9 Tcf range and that means they need to average 75 Bcf per week. Demand from residential/commercial and generation has done the seasonal fade and is less than last year, so injections can average 95-100 Bcf per week until July without pushing prices very much. Price compression is reducing interest both from the trade and the SA article writers/commenters lol.