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Gigem77

Gigem77
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  • Priced To Imperfection: Natural Gas Undervalued And Poised To Rally [View article]
    The Henry Hub spot graph http://bit.ly/1GXKV9x
    Rob's latest storage data http://bit.ly/1GXKV9B
    Supply/production http://bit.ly/1GXKV9F
    Demand http://bit.ly/1GXKVpX

    There is nothing bullish in those numbers.
    The record for total storage injection was set last year, as well as the record for most weekly reported injections over 100. Storage demand is already higher than last year.
    Apr 18, 2015. 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Priced To Imperfection: Natural Gas Undervalued And Poised To Rally [View article]
    Henri, to your question......A study was made of the Haynesville once the rigs began moving away to other shales. The time lag between drilling dropping and production peaking and then declining was significant. Here is the graph with notes. There is an error on one of the dates in the notes. It should be 2011, not 2010.
    http://bit.ly/1yBwAMX Something similar will be seen on a national scale.
    Apr 17, 2015. 09:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Priced To Imperfection: Natural Gas Undervalued And Poised To Rally [View article]
    Yep, and it bounced back the next day by .8 B to 72.5 B and today is at 72.1 Bcf/d. Apparently, declines won't be in a straight line.
    The injection to storage was well above last year and the 5 yr avg.
    Next week's report will be show similar comparisons. Bentek and Rob show a number around 80bcf vs 49 last year for the same week.

    Rob posted today. His production/supply numbers are quite bearish. His end of season storage projection is above 4T.. just in case anyone thinks the author is cherry picking data. Also, demand increases year over year are significantly below the production gains.

    Oil rebounded before gas.
    Storage demand will support prices as will short covering and the production declines are already more than projected by the EIA, so there is something to argue about all summer.. lol
    Apr 16, 2015. 10:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Skids As Supplies Swell, More Downside Ahead [View article]
    Compare last year and the 5 yr avg on a week by week basis here http://bit.ly/JfLM90
    Production is greater than last year when we set records.
    The next injection will be around 80 Bcf compared to 49 last year.
    Apr 16, 2015. 10:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Marcellus Is Close To Peak Production - Here's Why This Is So Important [View article]
    How about asking the folks who actually work in the field?
    Apr 15, 2015. 09:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Marcellus Is Close To Peak Production - Here's Why This Is So Important [View article]
    In support of your point, the next 3 injections to storage are projected to be in the 60, 80, 80 area, well above last year at the same time.
    http://bit.ly/JfLM90
    Production is dropping per Bentek and at some point, if that continues, it will support prices as will storage refill. I'm not convinced that $2 is in the cards.
    The EIA model/projections lag. Private models and data collection are more timely.
    This Bentek area is free. The second link is a daily note worth following.
    http://bit.ly/1wuMgjR
    http://bit.ly/1NJ3CBS
    Apr 15, 2015. 10:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Marcellus Is Close To Peak Production - Here's Why This Is So Important [View article]
    I discount Berman, Hughes and Powers. You can't quote one to support the other. They have a bias against shale that colors their work. It is similar to the confirmation bias of many of the articles on SA. These guys have been wrong about production from the beginning. The geophysicists who have been right are not "a new set of pundits". They are the talented ones who can read seismic and who know where and how to drill. They are also the best sources of information and the best information is not published.
    Apr 14, 2015. 09:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Marcellus Is Close To Peak Production - Here's Why This Is So Important [View article]
    Compare credentials, education and experience. Bill has none in energy, engineering, geophysics or related fields. Compare with Craig Cooper. Or, compare track records. Bill has been wrong for years.
    Apr 14, 2015. 02:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Upside Potential Over The Next Month? [View article]
    Natural gas pricing is domestic. We don't export beyond North America yet. Low prices are due to Production breaking records, up 10% yoy while demand has lagged, up only 3% yoy. Run a natgas vs $ chart back 5,10 and 15 years.
    Apr 14, 2015. 02:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: A Rebound To 4/MMBtu And Higher Is Not Out Of The Question [View article]
    The scoreboard shows $2.50 and the bulls are very quiet. Now watch the storage refill break all the records set last year. Check bloomberg and genscape for stories on deferred well completions.
    Apr 11, 2015. 07:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodities: First Quarter Overview And Best Bets For Q2 And Beyond [View article]
    bloomberg must have changed their link.. not very nice of them. http://yhoo.it/1PhZiIa
    Demand figures are bullish, storage bearish, and so on. I'm not going to try to call bottoms or inflection points. I think it is a good time to shop for bargains.
    Apr 7, 2015. 10:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodities: First Quarter Overview And Best Bets For Q2 And Beyond [View article]
    Oil is moving higher on demand and decline. Gasoline demand is well above the 5 yr avg. Production growth ended and now small declines are showing in the reports for several shales. Saudi raised prices. Try to keep up.. http://bloom.bg/1ae5UXy-
    Apr 6, 2015. 09:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: A Rebound To 4/MMBtu And Higher Is Not Out Of The Question [View article]
    Why do you continue to ignore the fact that production dropped in January due to well head freeze offs? It happens every year. It's been explained to you in small words several times. Production recovered in February and March as oft stated by Bentek, the EIA and other sources. How about production lost to maintenance in the Gulf? Are you tracking that too?
    You can access recent production information on a weekly basis from the EIA and on a daily basis from Bentek. There's an Easter Egg in that for the bulls.
    Apr 1, 2015. 07:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: A Rebound To 4/MMBtu And Higher Is Not Out Of The Question [View article]
    Have you some examples of "El Nino like" hurricanes?
    LNG exports in 2015 will not begin until late in the 2H, will be at most 1 Bcf/d and will be immaterial to prices in 2015.
    http://bit.ly/s8E91p
    I see rlp already posted the EIA actuals. When injections begin in March, it is quite bearish.
    It is more likely that ending storage in November will be 4 Tcf or greater than that price will be $4.
    Apr 1, 2015. 02:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Natural Gas Market Remains Soft - UNG Resumes Its Descent [View article]
    Injections are mandatory. LDCs have to put enough gas in storage to meet their cutomer's needs next winter. Storage is projected to hit 4 Tcf this year, definitely beating last year's record setting pace. Average production for 2015 will top 2014 by 5%.

    http://bit.ly/1CFoSkQ
    Mar 31, 2015. 07:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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