Seeking Alpha

Gigem77

Gigem77
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Gigem77's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Natural Gas: Recent Move Provides A Great Contrarian Play [View article]
    Well said!
    Dec 24, 2014. 08:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Recent Move Provides A Great Contrarian Play [View article]
    The folks who send me messages on these subjects usually don't post comments. I would have shut down this account a long time ago were it not for them.
    Dec 23, 2014. 09:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Recent Move Provides A Great Contrarian Play [View article]
    The US just broke the all time record for refilling natural gas storage. Storage demand put a floor under price. And again, another SA author ignores the all time high records set and broken many times for production and supply. The year over year storage deficit is gone. The 5 yr storage deficit is shrinking rapidly. The next report will be bearish by over 100 bcf compared to last year. That 5 yr gap is closing fast and will be gone in 3-4 weeks.
    http://bit.ly/JfLM90

    Production and supply are running 9-10 bcf/d higher than last year. Do the math and think about the quality of any bounce. Will the fast money be inclined to squeeze the shorts or sell every rally?
    Dec 22, 2014. 07:06 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: A 'Soft Landing' Scenario [View article]
    The US begins the year with record natgas production. I expect ending storage in April will exceed last year's record low significantly. We will refill storage next summer easily and probably set a new record high. Will the capex cuts and reductions in drilling for liquids materially impact associated gas production? If yes, then by how much? Even if there is a loss off 5 Bcf/d (pick your number) production will still be 5 bcf/d more than last year. I think the price compression seen over the past few years will continue through the first half at least. The risk is to the bulls. Storage demand will support price like it did last year. By second half, I hope we see growing industrial demand, record exports to Mexico and a better fix on LNG exports give us a bullish outlook.
    I'm concerned about the layoffs, cancelled drilling, delayed or cancelled orders for pipe etc. You and I see now the beginning of thousands of lost jobs. That will stress local economies. M&A activity will jump. So there is opportunity.
    Wildcards: When will oil prices revert to the mean? Will the US allow oil exports and/or exempt oil from the Jones Act? Will the economy retrench? Will lower prices delay natgas pipeline expansion, esp. in the NE or will those projects continue and improve distribution?
    It will be another year of looking forward to articles from Richard Zeits, Michael Filloon, Michael Fitzsimmons, comments from Craig Cooper and others.
    Dec 21, 2014. 12:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: A 'Soft Landing' Scenario [View article]
    The storage deficit is gone. Supply is 9-10 bcf/d greater than last year. The Christmas cold forecast by Joe Bastardi has been revised, cold postponed until January. http://bit.ly/1AKwsat Henry Hub spot tanked http://bit.ly/1AKwqzd
    Dec 21, 2014. 10:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The 'Oil Glut' A Myth? [View article]
    Oil surplus opens storage profit opportunity
    http://on.ft.com/1AKu2sh
    Dec 21, 2014. 10:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The 'Oil Glut' A Myth? [View article]
    Whatever the causes, one result is a steady stream of announced capex cuts for 2015. That means rigs are being stacked, employees let go and it's just beginning. If anybody thinks that price is too low and that storage is plentiful, then buy crude and store it. Anybody?
    Dec 18, 2014. 07:10 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil & Gas Stocks: Pain, Then More Pain... When Is The Gain? [View article]
    Oil Storm has Texas Wildcatters Warning Bakken Rookies to Take Cover
    http://bloom.bg/1GLax4M

    A report from the Bakken by a small operator
    http://bit.ly/1GLazti

    WTIC < 55 this morning. .
    Dec 16, 2014. 06:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Markets: Sentiment And Lame Thinking Are Currently In The Driver's Seat [View article]
    The people who move oil get the news in real time. Oil opened down a buck and change.
    The shale plays get less than WTIC at Cushing. http://bit.ly/1Gnppbf
    Dec 14, 2014. 06:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Markets: Sentiment And Lame Thinking Are Currently In The Driver's Seat [View article]
    Where will oil open tonight?

    Libya Imposes Force Majeure on 2 Oil Ports After Clashes
    By Nayla Razzouk Dec 14, 2014 3:30 AM ET

    Libya’s National Oil Corp. declared force majeure on the oil ports of Es Sider and Ras Lanuf, and is taking measures to halt output at some oil fields because of armed clashes in the politically-divided North African country.

    Fighting factions should spare energy infrastructure in Libya, the state-run National Oil Corp. said in a statement yesterday on its website. Force majeure is in place at Es Sider and Ras Lanuf, Libya’s largest and third-largest oil ports with a combined capacity of 560,000 barrels a day. The measure is a legal step that protects a company from liability when it can’t fulfill a contract for reasons beyond its control.

    National Oil, known as NOC, didn’t say which oil fields are being halted. NOC is adopting measures to protect wells, pumps and pipelines.

    “Force majeure has been declared at the oil ports of Es Sider and Ras Lanuf because of the ongoing armed clashes in the area,” it said. NOC “is determined to protect the oil resources of the country in a way that protects the rights of the country and the partners in line with terms of the partnership agreements.”
    Dec 14, 2014. 08:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Markets: Sentiment And Lame Thinking Are Currently In The Driver's Seat [View article]
    Strictly speaking of the US situation, the EIA says we added more than a million barrels per day to inventory last week. I'm not sure what definition of "glut" is being used but I'm going with "no place left to put oil". Storage capacity varies between regions. Has anybody bothered to actually run the numbers? The 380 million barrels in commercial storage is above the top of the normal range per EIA, but that does not quantify how much and where remaining storage it. There is available storage space for gasoline and distillates, so the refiners are running hot at 95% capacity converting oil to product. We put over 8 million barrels of gasoline into storage last week. We can do that for a while, but how long?
    How long do we have before oil storage capacity is for all practical purposes full? What happens to price as we approach that point? The math favors the bears today. Instead of arguing geopolitics or sentiment or making silly assertions about price in 2015, ("definitely has to go higher") (yeah? from where?) just do the math.
    Dec 13, 2014. 10:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This The End Of The 'Shale Oil Bubble?' Or The Beginning? [View article]
    Refineries operated at 95.4% of their operable capacity last week. (That's high) At 380.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. (from the latest EIA report. ) Does anybody know the max limit? within 10%?

    Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 8.2 million barrels last week,
    and are in the middle of the average range. (at 95% of operable capacity, refiners are running flat out and filling gasoline storage at a rate of more than a million bpd.. wow
    Distillate fuel inventories increased by 5.6 million barrels last week but are near the lower limit of the average range for this time of year. (refiners are switching from gasoline to diesel production as much as possible, so expect this inventory number to change rapidly) With relatively warm weather, heating oil demand is lower..
    Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 7.4 million barrels last week. How long can we run up storage at a million bpd?

    And we are still importing 7.7 million bpd.

    http://1.usa.gov/1ypMhCC

    Homework: how long will it take to max out Cushing storage? Every pot and kettle is full along the gulf coast and more pipelines are in progress. oy vey!

    Tell Congress to exempt hydrocarbons from the Jones Act, and lift export restrictions. Reject the use of food as a fuel and run 100% gasoline for greater efficiency. Oklahoma has stations selling gasoline with no ethanol. Follow the lead of Texans as we drive BATs (Big A_ _ Trucks) at 80 mph every day. We'll take care of this glut in no time. ;)
    Dec 13, 2014. 05:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This The End Of The 'Shale Oil Bubble?' Or The Beginning? [View article]
    Does that mean we can store a day's oversupply in your garage? How about 2 days worth? What do we do with the third day's 700k extra barrels? See the problem yet?
    Dec 13, 2014. 04:57 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Endeavor Silver's Q3 Earnings, And Why Investors Should Consider Buying [View article]
    Well, you have your sub 2.50 price and one really ugly chart. EXK is lagging all the other silver miners. Gauge the interest by the number of posts to this article.. ;)
    Dec 13, 2014. 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: A 'Soft Landing' Scenario [View article]
    Demand exceeds supply for an average 155 days of winter draws. That puts a floor under price. Industrial demand is growing. We are sending more gas south to Mexico. Uncertainty about the weather and about the impact of the crash in oil prices mitigates the supply surge. I think the trading desks are working hard to model the announced and expected reductions in capex and resulting impact on associated gas due to $60 oil. The US media is printing nonsense without any fact checking, which throws off investors and small speculators.
    Watch the storage deficit shrink over the next 2-3 reports and do the math for the summer refill even if production shrinks a bit. Once the oil price stabilizes, uncertainty will diminish. Will January bring record setting cold? Will it matter?
    Dec 11, 2014. 10:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,300 Comments
1,194 Likes