Gigem77's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/152469/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/171821-option-trader-friday-outlook-is-the-dollar-going-uup?source=feed#comment-749979 749979 10 years ago GE was a 60 dollar stock. 5 years ago it was 36 bucks. Today it is 15 bucks and change. During that time, gold has run from 255 to 1100. So your GE example shows how gold beat a blue chip stock over 1, 5 and 10 year periods. There have been no stock splits since 2000 and the dividends have varied from 10 cents to 31 cents, in no way compensating for the devastating drop in price.

The same thing is true of the dow, the nasdaq or the amex. Over the past 1, 5 and 10 years gold has outperformed by a large margin. GE is priced where it was in 1997 showing that buy and hold investors like you are getting killed. I bet you still own Oracle from 80.]]> Sat, 07 Nov 2009 13:28:35 -0500 10 years ago GE was a 60 dollar stock. 5 years ago it was 36 bucks. Today it is 15 bucks and change. During that time, gold has run from 255 to 1100. So your GE example shows how gold beat a blue chip stock over 1, 5 and 10 year periods. There have been no stock splits since 2000 and the dividends have varied from 10 cents to 31 cents, in no way compensating for the devastating drop in price.

The same thing is true of the dow, the nasdaq or the amex. Over the past 1, 5 and 10 years gold has outperformed by a large margin. GE is priced where it was in 1997 showing that buy and hold investors like you are getting killed. I bet you still own Oracle from 80.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171821-option-trader-friday-outlook-is-the-dollar-going-uup?source=feed#comment-749805 749805
The eurobanks have been selling 500 tonnes a year for at least a decade and the price of gold has risen 400% over that time frame. The IMF just sold 200 tonnes to India and the price of gold went higher.

The rest of the piece can be likewise shredded.


Meanwhile, the dollar shorts are covering fast and the DXY is less than 100 pips above the year's low. www.reuters.com/articl...


]]> Sat, 07 Nov 2009 10:53:21 -0500
The eurobanks have been selling 500 tonnes a year for at least a decade and the price of gold has risen 400% over that time frame. The IMF just sold 200 tonnes to India and the price of gold went higher.

The rest of the piece can be likewise shredded.


Meanwhile, the dollar shorts are covering fast and the DXY is less than 100 pips above the year's low. www.reuters.com/articl...


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164726-will-windows-7-resurrect-it-spending?source=feed#comment-702831 702831 Company budgets are in recession mode and not likely to upgrade unless the new version gives a clear cut advantage.

And where is the loosening in the credit markets? That is quite a stretch. Read something by Meredith Whitney and get back to us. ]]> Sun, 04 Oct 2009 15:59:37 -0400 Company budgets are in recession mode and not likely to upgrade unless the new version gives a clear cut advantage.

And where is the loosening in the credit markets? That is quite a stretch. Read something by Meredith Whitney and get back to us. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164713-how-much-natural-gas-remains-in-the-usa?source=feed#comment-702729 702729 SWN) has 71% of its proved reserves in the Fayetteville Shale in Arkansas. This shale is considered one of the more mature ones in North America, although still a high growth area.

The company has improved its initial production rate on wells here from 1.261 million cubic feet per day in 2007, to 3.611 million in the second quarter of 2009. It has done this with longer laterals on multi stage hydraulic fracturing operations. Southwestern Energy has seen its finding and development costs fall from $2.55 per Mcfe in 2007 to $1.53 per Mcfe in 2008.

Similar finding costs have been reported for gas in the various shales. It is economical way below 5 bucks, even assuming the need for total costs to = 3x finding costs.

CHK CEO Aubrey McClendon has said that they will increase drilling and production at 2 to 3x finding costs .

XTO just hedged 55% of their 2010 natgas production at 7.49 per mcf. I think that is a great bit of hedging.

Undiscovered resources are those deposits that have not been pinpointed, but are generally expected to exist based on geologic conditions. They are not just creating a wild guess. Drill down on your links a bit further next time.]]> Sun, 04 Oct 2009 14:34:36 -0400 SWN) has 71% of its proved reserves in the Fayetteville Shale in Arkansas. This shale is considered one of the more mature ones in North America, although still a high growth area.

The company has improved its initial production rate on wells here from 1.261 million cubic feet per day in 2007, to 3.611 million in the second quarter of 2009. It has done this with longer laterals on multi stage hydraulic fracturing operations. Southwestern Energy has seen its finding and development costs fall from $2.55 per Mcfe in 2007 to $1.53 per Mcfe in 2008.

Similar finding costs have been reported for gas in the various shales. It is economical way below 5 bucks, even assuming the need for total costs to = 3x finding costs.

CHK CEO Aubrey McClendon has said that they will increase drilling and production at 2 to 3x finding costs .

XTO just hedged 55% of their 2010 natgas production at 7.49 per mcf. I think that is a great bit of hedging.

Undiscovered resources are those deposits that have not been pinpointed, but are generally expected to exist based on geologic conditions. They are not just creating a wild guess. Drill down on your links a bit further next time.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164410-opportunities-for-both-shorts-and-longs-in-natural-gas?source=feed#comment-702332 702332
US consumption is still running about 4bcf per day less than during the same period last year. Industrial demand is responsible for this drop. The mounting job losses tell us that demand is not returning. The inventory replacement bounce in GDP is temporary.

The UNG is issuing more shares. They began on September 28th.

Pressure in the pipelines and storage facilities is so high that operational flow orders have been and are being issued to stop the producers from compressing more gas into the system. The rig count is increasing from the summer lows. There are hundreds of wells that have been drilled but await completion. So the supply overhang is not just from storage, but also from curtailed production. This means that winter draws will be smaller. We will exit winter with more gas in storage than last year and begin this cycle again. When will industrial demand rebound?

Residential and Commercial heating demand during the winter are not enough to compensate for the loss of industrial demand. We need petrochemical plants, car factories and refineries to reopen or increase capacity utilization and that is not happening yet.

Nothing the politicians have done so far is helping natgas. If they would convert the government's fleets of vehicles to use CNG, that would help. Heating oil prices are low and inventories are above the high end of the average range. All of this is good news for consumers this winter.

So the best hope for the natgas bulls is that speculators will run the price higher and that there will be sharp short covering rallies like the ones seen this year. That is a trading environment for the nimble. It is not time yet, imo, for longer term investors to put money to work here.

Shares of producers like UPL, XTO and CHK are tracking the broad market, not the natgas price. So they are quite overbought and will fall with the SPX when it corrects. Their 7-9 dollar hedges are dropping off the books. So earnings will show some real hits over the next few quarters. ]]> Sun, 04 Oct 2009 10:20:45 -0400
US consumption is still running about 4bcf per day less than during the same period last year. Industrial demand is responsible for this drop. The mounting job losses tell us that demand is not returning. The inventory replacement bounce in GDP is temporary.

The UNG is issuing more shares. They began on September 28th.

Pressure in the pipelines and storage facilities is so high that operational flow orders have been and are being issued to stop the producers from compressing more gas into the system. The rig count is increasing from the summer lows. There are hundreds of wells that have been drilled but await completion. So the supply overhang is not just from storage, but also from curtailed production. This means that winter draws will be smaller. We will exit winter with more gas in storage than last year and begin this cycle again. When will industrial demand rebound?

Residential and Commercial heating demand during the winter are not enough to compensate for the loss of industrial demand. We need petrochemical plants, car factories and refineries to reopen or increase capacity utilization and that is not happening yet.

Nothing the politicians have done so far is helping natgas. If they would convert the government's fleets of vehicles to use CNG, that would help. Heating oil prices are low and inventories are above the high end of the average range. All of this is good news for consumers this winter.

So the best hope for the natgas bulls is that speculators will run the price higher and that there will be sharp short covering rallies like the ones seen this year. That is a trading environment for the nimble. It is not time yet, imo, for longer term investors to put money to work here.

Shares of producers like UPL, XTO and CHK are tracking the broad market, not the natgas price. So they are quite overbought and will fall with the SPX when it corrects. Their 7-9 dollar hedges are dropping off the books. So earnings will show some real hits over the next few quarters. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162873-natural-gas-an-energy-resource-whose-time-has-come?source=feed#comment-687118 687118
If you like natgas as a transportation fuel, then consider CLNE, Boone Pickens entry into the space. ]]> Wed, 23 Sep 2009 05:57:20 -0400
If you like natgas as a transportation fuel, then consider CLNE, Boone Pickens entry into the space. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162139-inventories-may-have-dropped-but-crude-oil-prices-still-constrained-by-natural-gas-oversupply?source=feed#comment-683162 683162
Distillates include diesel as well as heating oil. Diesel demand is greatly reduced by the recession. That is the main reason for the builds in storage.

LK is right, oil is fungible and natgas is not. I add to that, that while the futures were moving higher on speculation, spot prices fell. intelligencepress.com/.../]]> Fri, 18 Sep 2009 21:32:54 -0400
Distillates include diesel as well as heating oil. Diesel demand is greatly reduced by the recession. That is the main reason for the builds in storage.

LK is right, oil is fungible and natgas is not. I add to that, that while the futures were moving higher on speculation, spot prices fell. intelligencepress.com/.../]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/156470-has-the-dollar-hit-a-major-bottom?source=feed#comment-673956 673956 ]]> Sat, 12 Sep 2009 21:03:20 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161072-how-to-trade-natural-gas-crude-oil-and-gold-etf-funds?source=feed#comment-673946 673946 The UNG rollover process takes about 4 days during the last 2 weeks of the contract. The October contract terminates in 2 weeks on the 25th. They will close roughly 20% of the front month futures contracts. Who will buy? Storage is already over 90% full with another 10-12 weeks left in the injection season. Demand in September is the lowest of the year. ]]> Sat, 12 Sep 2009 20:44:09 -0400 The UNG rollover process takes about 4 days during the last 2 weeks of the contract. The October contract terminates in 2 weeks on the 25th. They will close roughly 20% of the front month futures contracts. Who will buy? Storage is already over 90% full with another 10-12 weeks left in the injection season. Demand in September is the lowest of the year. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161119-oil-supply-as-russian-production-tops-out-world-supply-will-continue-to-slip?source=feed#comment-673938 673938 www.tradersnarrative.c... The US increased total annual production last year when BP brought their "Thunderhorse" platform online. Supply has far outstripped demand.

The futures markets are dominated by large speculative players like GS, MS and JPM. Hedge funds and oil companies vie with each other for tankers to store crude as part of their trading strategy. GS is the largest trader in the oil futures market. They neither produce nor consume oil. CFTC head Ginsler is correct in seeking to limit the large speculators. ]]> Sat, 12 Sep 2009 20:29:05 -0400 www.tradersnarrative.c... The US increased total annual production last year when BP brought their "Thunderhorse" platform online. Supply has far outstripped demand.

The futures markets are dominated by large speculative players like GS, MS and JPM. Hedge funds and oil companies vie with each other for tankers to store crude as part of their trading strategy. GS is the largest trader in the oil futures market. They neither produce nor consume oil. CFTC head Ginsler is correct in seeking to limit the large speculators. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161011-rough-times-ahead-for-natural-gas?source=feed#comment-673503 673503
]]> Sat, 12 Sep 2009 13:29:32 -0400
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161073-four-keys-to-golds-next-move?source=feed#comment-673481 673481 www.youtube.com/watch?...]]> Sat, 12 Sep 2009 13:06:07 -0400 www.youtube.com/watch?...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/157751-nibbling-on-natural-gas-concerned-about-atlas-pipeline-partners?source=feed#comment-644739 644739 americanoilman.homeste...

Spot natgas prices around the country intelligencepress.com/.../
Natgas is under 2.50 out west and will fall further as storage fills. Watch the pipeline and storage operators for OFOs, Operational Flow Orders, forcing curtailment. The injections to storage will diminish, not because supply is diminished but because pipeline and storage pressure is high. It is way too early to get bulled up on natgas. ]]> Tue, 25 Aug 2009 06:08:26 -0400 americanoilman.homeste...

Spot natgas prices around the country intelligencepress.com/.../
Natgas is under 2.50 out west and will fall further as storage fills. Watch the pipeline and storage operators for OFOs, Operational Flow Orders, forcing curtailment. The injections to storage will diminish, not because supply is diminished but because pipeline and storage pressure is high. It is way too early to get bulled up on natgas. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/156470-has-the-dollar-hit-a-major-bottom?source=feed#comment-634051 634051 Mon, 17 Aug 2009 21:00:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/151945-frank-holmes-china-is-the-800-pound-gorilla-of-commodities-demand?source=feed#comment-605954 605954 Tue, 28 Jul 2009 20:51:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/151055-yamana-gold-ramps-up-production?source=feed#comment-604644 604644 stockcharts.com/charts...
The market knows something is amiss.]]> Tue, 28 Jul 2009 06:20:21 -0400 stockcharts.com/charts...
The market knows something is amiss.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/151089-prepare-for-a-supply-tsunami-in-treasurys-next-week?source=feed#comment-600609 600609 Fri, 24 Jul 2009 08:03:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/151055-yamana-gold-ramps-up-production?source=feed#comment-600557 600557 GOLD). Keep an eye on Marrone. ]]> Fri, 24 Jul 2009 06:10:03 -0400 GOLD). Keep an eye on Marrone. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147659-inflation-with-gary-north-or-deflation-with-mish?source=feed#comment-580104 580104 Thu, 09 Jul 2009 06:28:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/143036-are-oil-etfs-showing-us-how-natural-gas-etfs-will-trade?source=feed#comment-546117 546117 ftalphaville.ft.com/bl.../
]]> Sun, 14 Jun 2009 12:35:42 -0400 ftalphaville.ft.com/bl.../
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/143036-are-oil-etfs-showing-us-how-natural-gas-etfs-will-trade?source=feed#comment-545948 545948 intelligencepress.com/.../
There is no indication that industrial demand is increasing despite the historically low prices. Companies like CHK have already cut production by several hundred million cubic feet per day. This gas can easily be brought back to the market should demand increase and is thus an overhang weight on prices.

The rig count is misleading because the shale plays are so incredibly productive. Watch production, not the rig count.

UNG and other etfs represent speculation in futures and swaps. They do not and can not take delivery of natural gas. Thus they cannot take gas off of the market. If these vehicles diverge from the reality of the physical market, the shorts will sell them into the dirt. ]]> Sun, 14 Jun 2009 08:57:50 -0400 intelligencepress.com/.../
There is no indication that industrial demand is increasing despite the historically low prices. Companies like CHK have already cut production by several hundred million cubic feet per day. This gas can easily be brought back to the market should demand increase and is thus an overhang weight on prices.

The rig count is misleading because the shale plays are so incredibly productive. Watch production, not the rig count.

UNG and other etfs represent speculation in futures and swaps. They do not and can not take delivery of natural gas. Thus they cannot take gas off of the market. If these vehicles diverge from the reality of the physical market, the shorts will sell them into the dirt. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/142119-what-if-bernanke-succeeds?source=feed#comment-540472 540472 Wed, 10 Jun 2009 10:42:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129489-faber-and-schiff-inflation-inevitable-so-here-s-what-to-do?source=feed#comment-452849 452849
Why haven't the fabricators expanded their production of rounds for retail and planchets for the mints? Perhaps they enjoy the larger spreads and are in no hurry to knock the price down. Buy the contract and take delivery or just buy the GLD and SLV etf shares.

Frankly, I'm amazed at the prices people will pay. Check out ebay and see the highest premiums paid for gold and silver.
]]> Sun, 05 Apr 2009 22:14:26 -0400
Why haven't the fabricators expanded their production of rounds for retail and planchets for the mints? Perhaps they enjoy the larger spreads and are in no hurry to knock the price down. Buy the contract and take delivery or just buy the GLD and SLV etf shares.

Frankly, I'm amazed at the prices people will pay. Check out ebay and see the highest premiums paid for gold and silver.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129465-gold-and-silver-to-buy-or-not-to-buy?source=feed#comment-452427 452427
The ECB dumped 35.5 tonnes of gold on the market last week. The IMF is preparing to sell 400 tonnes already approved by the G20. World mining production is running about 20 tonnes per week. Demand from India is nearly zero. Will investment demand continue to take up the slack as the broad market rises or will money flow back to stocks?

When the GLD holders decide that they would rather have some solar stocks or some biotech, look out below. ]]> Sun, 05 Apr 2009 12:08:13 -0400
The ECB dumped 35.5 tonnes of gold on the market last week. The IMF is preparing to sell 400 tonnes already approved by the G20. World mining production is running about 20 tonnes per week. Demand from India is nearly zero. Will investment demand continue to take up the slack as the broad market rises or will money flow back to stocks?

When the GLD holders decide that they would rather have some solar stocks or some biotech, look out below. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97655-is-this-a-money-making-bailout?source=feed#comment-269359 269359 Tue, 30 Sep 2008 07:00:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97655-is-this-a-money-making-bailout?source=feed#comment-269357 269357
Try as hard as you can to grasp the scope of that statement taken from the bill.

What are the securities, obligations and "other instruments" based on or related to mortgages? Define the terms MBS, CDO and CDS and relate them to mortgages. The bailout bill gives permission to treasury to buy the credit instruments that were created around mortgages.

Americans understand this and we sent a clear message to our reps to kill the bill.


]]> Tue, 30 Sep 2008 06:55:25 -0400
Try as hard as you can to grasp the scope of that statement taken from the bill.

What are the securities, obligations and "other instruments" based on or related to mortgages? Define the terms MBS, CDO and CDS and relate them to mortgages. The bailout bill gives permission to treasury to buy the credit instruments that were created around mortgages.

Americans understand this and we sent a clear message to our reps to kill the bill.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97655-is-this-a-money-making-bailout?source=feed#comment-268219 268219 The plan bails out any company that dumps their illiquid toxic waste deriviatives on the taxpayer in exchange for dollars. I use AIG as one example. There will be many others. Taxpayers do not profit. The paper dumped on the Treasury has no bid. Nobody assigns it any value. It is arrogant and presumptive to say that this toxic waste will ever have any value.

Taxpayers will get higher inflation, higher taxes, a vastly increased national debt and a prolonged crisis. Those things are certain.

]]> Mon, 29 Sep 2008 07:07:35 -0400 The plan bails out any company that dumps their illiquid toxic waste deriviatives on the taxpayer in exchange for dollars. I use AIG as one example. There will be many others. Taxpayers do not profit. The paper dumped on the Treasury has no bid. Nobody assigns it any value. It is arrogant and presumptive to say that this toxic waste will ever have any value.

Taxpayers will get higher inflation, higher taxes, a vastly increased national debt and a prolonged crisis. Those things are certain.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97655-is-this-a-money-making-bailout?source=feed#comment-267918 267918 tinyurl.com/4g8xlo
"It is hard for us, without being flippant, to even see a scenario within any kind of realm of reason that would see us losing one dollar in any of those transactions.”
— Joseph J. Cassano, a former A.I.G. executive, August 2007
This genious is typical of who created the mess. Now we are supposed to bail them out, instead of allowing them to fail.

"In the case of A.I.G., the virus exploded from a freewheeling little 377-person unit in London, and flourished in a climate of opulent pay, lax oversight and blind faith in financial risk models. It nearly decimated one of the world’s most admired companies, a seemingly sturdy insurer with a trillion-dollar balance sheet, 116,000 employees and operations in 130 countries."

These are the arrogant gamblers that you want us to bail out. Well it looks like you get your wish. 634 billion more is on the way thanks to the amoral cowards in Congress.

But the government does not have that money. It has to be borrowed and the national debt expanded. So Treasury will begin issuing huge tranches of debt. Who will buy that debt? Only the Fed will , only the Fed. What will be the impact of all that high powered money on the bond markets and the dollar?

What happens when the money is used to purchase default swap crap at mark to model value and the purchases never turn a profit? Who goes to jail for lying? No one? The arrogance is stunning.

What will you say when the next SecTreas comes around and says he needs 700 billion more? That I can guarantee is going to happen. ]]> Sun, 28 Sep 2008 19:56:52 -0400 tinyurl.com/4g8xlo
"It is hard for us, without being flippant, to even see a scenario within any kind of realm of reason that would see us losing one dollar in any of those transactions.”
— Joseph J. Cassano, a former A.I.G. executive, August 2007
This genious is typical of who created the mess. Now we are supposed to bail them out, instead of allowing them to fail.

"In the case of A.I.G., the virus exploded from a freewheeling little 377-person unit in London, and flourished in a climate of opulent pay, lax oversight and blind faith in financial risk models. It nearly decimated one of the world’s most admired companies, a seemingly sturdy insurer with a trillion-dollar balance sheet, 116,000 employees and operations in 130 countries."

These are the arrogant gamblers that you want us to bail out. Well it looks like you get your wish. 634 billion more is on the way thanks to the amoral cowards in Congress.

But the government does not have that money. It has to be borrowed and the national debt expanded. So Treasury will begin issuing huge tranches of debt. Who will buy that debt? Only the Fed will , only the Fed. What will be the impact of all that high powered money on the bond markets and the dollar?

What happens when the money is used to purchase default swap crap at mark to model value and the purchases never turn a profit? Who goes to jail for lying? No one? The arrogance is stunning.

What will you say when the next SecTreas comes around and says he needs 700 billion more? That I can guarantee is going to happen. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97655-is-this-a-money-making-bailout?source=feed#comment-267874 267874
You obviously are a socialist. These fat cats made hundreds of millions on the way up and now want to share the losses with all of us. Let them fail. I'm not paying for them to create derivatives and default. ]]> Sun, 28 Sep 2008 18:56:15 -0400
You obviously are a socialist. These fat cats made hundreds of millions on the way up and now want to share the losses with all of us. Let them fail. I'm not paying for them to create derivatives and default. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97655-is-this-a-money-making-bailout?source=feed#comment-267359 267359
September 24 – Bloomberg (Shannon D. Harrington, Caroline Salas and Pierre Paulden): “The $62 trillion market for credit- default swaps, created to protect banks from loan losses, helped fuel a near-meltdown in the financial system and now may be regulated for the first time. "

September 22 – Bloomberg (Bei Hu): “Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s $700 billion plan to buy devalued assets from financial companies is ‘a joke’ because it doesn’t go far enough to calm markets, said Kenichi Ohmae, president of Business Breakthrough Inc. Ohmae, nicknamed ‘Mr. Strategy’ during his 23 years as a McKinsey & Co. partner, called for a $5 trillion ‘international facility’' to be made available to financial institutions. The system could be modeled on one used by Sweden during its banking crisis in the early 1990s, he said. ‘This is a liquidity crisis. The liquidity has to be so big that people won’t get panicky.’”

The Fed already pumped an average of 180 billion per day via the discount window during the past week.

The sheep get sheared with smoke in their eyes and you guys are part of the smoke machine.]]> Sun, 28 Sep 2008 09:25:44 -0400
September 24 – Bloomberg (Shannon D. Harrington, Caroline Salas and Pierre Paulden): “The $62 trillion market for credit- default swaps, created to protect banks from loan losses, helped fuel a near-meltdown in the financial system and now may be regulated for the first time. "

September 22 – Bloomberg (Bei Hu): “Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s $700 billion plan to buy devalued assets from financial companies is ‘a joke’ because it doesn’t go far enough to calm markets, said Kenichi Ohmae, president of Business Breakthrough Inc. Ohmae, nicknamed ‘Mr. Strategy’ during his 23 years as a McKinsey & Co. partner, called for a $5 trillion ‘international facility’' to be made available to financial institutions. The system could be modeled on one used by Sweden during its banking crisis in the early 1990s, he said. ‘This is a liquidity crisis. The liquidity has to be so big that people won’t get panicky.’”

The Fed already pumped an average of 180 billion per day via the discount window during the past week.

The sheep get sheared with smoke in their eyes and you guys are part of the smoke machine.]]>