Gigem77

Frank Holmes: China Is the 800 Pound Gorilla of Commodities Demand

It was not a good day for the gold miners either.

Yamana Gold Ramps Up Production

AUY was a 20 dollar stock (19.93) in March of '08. It has seriously underperformed gold since then. Gold is within 10% of a new all time high. AUY needs to more than double to achieve a new all time high. stockcharts.com/charts...
The market knows something is amiss.

Yamana Gold Ramps Up Production

Peter Marrone, CEO, is selling his shares in AUY and buying shares in Aura, a junior miner. AUY recently sold properties to Aura at prices that some analysts think were well below market. Marrone and one other AUY board member are also on the board at Aura, which gives the strong appearance of a conflict of interest. Before the sale, AUY was headed toward 2 million ounces per year of production. I wonder what their share price would be if they had a strong management team like the one at Randgold (GOLD). Keep an eye on Marrone.

No Renewed Bull Phase for Metals Miners Just Yet

Well, well, gold is over 835 and crude is over 121. Another swing and a miss, Bill.

The forward hedge book is smaller than it has been in a decade. ABX still has a sizeable hedge, but most have reduced or eliminated their hedges altogether. Companies like AUY hedge their base metal production and leave their gold fully unhedged.

No Renewed Bull Phase for Metals Miners Just Yet

The dollar index is 70% euros and yen. The rest are background noise. It's running into considerable resistance. It was not helped by the fact that FNM and FRE were shredded today. Crude is back to 116. Gold is 40 bucks off the low of last week.

No Renewed Bull Phase for Metals Miners Just Yet

The dollar rally is the result of a large short position unwinding. The sharp correction in some commodities is likewise a technical event. It is logically incorrect to extrapolate the short term unwinding of trades into a dollar "bull" market.

The dollar is attached firmly to the continued crap out in the financial sector. FNM and FRE are headed for government takeover and their shares will go to zero. Will LEH fail? WM? When the FDIC needs more money, what will the effect be on the dollar?

Despite Disappointing 4Q, Yamana Gold's Outlook Remains Strong

900 is the number I'm using for the 1st qtr '08 which ends Monday. My point is that the analysts estimates are still too high inspite of guidance.

Despite Disappointing 4Q, Yamana Gold's Outlook Remains Strong

Blackmont analyst Richard Gray needs to read the quarterly report. He and most of the other analysts were horribly wrong. They have been wrong about AUY every quarter in '07. Why? Production drops to 220k GEO in the 1st qtr '08. Even using $900 gold AUY with 668 million shares, will struggle to make .16 to .18 which is far short of the .24 avg estimate. So the anaylsts will cause disappointment again by overestimating earnings again.