Gigem77

Has the Dollar Hit a Major Bottom?

Since this article was written on 17-August the dollar has tanked from over 79 to a new yearly low of 76.46. Gold has risen from 930 to 1011. Silver ran from 14 to 17. The S&P 500 has risen from 975 to 1048. Prechter is wrong again. Everybody who took his advice and bought the dollar, shorted gold and shorted stocks, has lost money.

Has the Dollar Hit a Major Bottom?

Prechter was bearish on stocks through the 90's, ouch! He was wrong about gold in 2001, 2002 and 2003 and still is. He was wrong about interest rates in 2004, clinging to the notion that falling stock prices would cause higher rates when in fact just the opposite happens. Is it so hard to imagine that he is wrong now about the dollar and deflation?

Forget $100 a Barrel - Oil Will Plummet to $30

Thanks for another good laugh.

July gasoline data show week over week increases in demand as the price fell. Demand has been suppressed and is returning with marginally lower prices.

New technology is exciting, but irrelevant to oil demand until that new tech is deployed commercially.

The next president will face a number of daunting challenges. One of those will be grasping the math of oil demand and production. You also face that challenge.

Oil is not plentiful, thus the exploration in difficult and expensive places like offshore Brazil, the deepwater Gulf and offshore Africa. These new finds will take years to bring into production and those will be the most expensive barrels ever produced. The rigs that PBR is mobilizing lease for 700k per day.

Buy RIG and NOV. They are minting money and will continue to do so for years.

Oil vs. the Market: Major Changes Expected This Month

DUG is an ultrashort fund that tracks the DJUSEN index. It shorts the shares of energy companies. It does not short oil. To short oil you need a fund that actually shorts futures like DTO.

Oil vs. the Market: Major Changes Expected This Month

If oil keeps dropping 3-4 dollars per day, your 100 target will be hit in a week. I think we saw the bottom Friday, but if the market ignores bombed pipelines, we could see 110.

Buy and hold investors have had their heads handed to them for 8 years unless they were long commodities and even those have had some sharp corrections. It's definitely a traders market.

Doug Noland writes a good piece on leveraged speculators, at the end of this page. His insights on dislocation in the markets are worth the long read. www.prudentbear.com/in...

Short Oil as a Long Investment

You can't drive a car looking out the rear window. 100+ years of commodity data has to be adjusted for the addition of a growing middle class in both China and India. And then adjust for the effects of rapid growth in world population. Then look at the failure of oil producers to increase production past 86 million bbpd. 10 years ago China was an oil exporter, today they import over 7 million barrels per day and that number is growing every year. That's a paradigm shift. I hope you put some tight stops on those shorts.