Gigem77

A Surprise in Store for the Dollar?

The US manipulates their inflation data (CPI) and this masks the reality of negative GDP. The BLS has become the "Ministry of Truth". Even this heavily massaged data is going to show a CPI gain of +.7% this week. The PPI is expected to be +1.3%. Meanwhile, FRE and FNM are in deep trouble. They have over 1.5 trillion in direct debt. Freddie is ``insolvent'' under fair value accounting rules, according to former St. Louis Federal Reserve President William Poole. LEH fell 40% last week. What happens if they go under? Throw in Indymac causing loss of confidence in the banking system and one could conclude that the dollar is in deep trouble. Gold blew through 960 Friday. Crude is almost to 150. Let's see what kind of "surprise" the fed and treasury can script.

Dollar Reversal Underway?

Well, I guess that's settled, lol. DXY 72.37 this morning, gold over 920 and crude at 141. The dollar is toast.

Dollar Reversal Underway?

June consumer confidence came in much lower than expected. The dollar tanked. There is very little chance that the Fed will raise rates as economic problems continue to worsen.

Dollar Reversal Underway?

This is the weakest dead cat bounce the dollar has made in 2 years. It failed at 74. The dollar (DXY) has failed to rise above the 200 sma since early in '06. That number today is 75.14. Good luck taking out that technical level, dollar bulls. This week the fomc will not raise rates and next month the ECB will. Trichet said so. Would he lie? ;) Nothing fundamental has changed. The trade, budget and current account deficits are still growing. Inflation is running hotter, even using the phony BLS data. Money is flowing out of stocks, bonds and real estate. It's flowing into commodities. So where is the source of a dollar rally?

Jawboning and short-covering into the quarter-end are the last hurrah for the buck. But it won't get 'er done.