TPoise

23 Comments

    • ON: Thu Oct 9th 12:33 PM
      Commented on:
      The Last Days of Morgan Stanley
      I was actually hoping TARP give it some money in exchange for preferred shares. Remember, if Merrill Lynch wasn't allowed to fail, I don't think Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs would be as well. We are seeing the fallout of LEH hitting the market with AIG.

      And now as a retail bank, MS has better access to the discount window and just about everything else the Fed has available. John Mack is a very smart guy, and I wouldn't be surprised that he wouldn't be able to pull a rabbit out of his hat on this one.

      Disclosure: Long MS Senior Unsecured Debt
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    • ON: Thu Oct 9th 00:22 AM
      Commented on:
      Morgan Stanley Appears a Little Too Desperate for Cash
      Obviously you have a thing out for MS. However, if you read their latest financial statements (and assuming it is correct), they have about $171 billion in cash-like assets, then add on the $9 billion they will get from the Japanese. That leaves them with $180 billion, more than enough to cover all of their Level 3 assets, senior unsecured debt, preferred securities, and liquidity 6 months into the future.
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    • ON: Mon Oct 6th 20:10 PM
      Commented on:
      Opportunity in Emerging Markets Amidst This Panic
      Today I dipped my toes in the water so to speak by buying 10 more shares of BIK (a low-expense BRIC etf). This magical $140 seems pretty low right now, but I am on a 15-20 year time frame, and I expect dramatic reversal of fortunes. Do I think I properly picked the bottom? By no means did I even try, but tried-and-true techniques such as dollar-cost averaging do play a big part in a long-term portfolio.
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    • ON: Tue Jul 22nd 23:05 PM
      Commented on:
      Financials Future Still Uncertain
      Come on guys, you are all starting to sound like the Chicken Littles from MarketWatch
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    • ON: Tue May 27th 20:08 PM
      Commented on:
      Raising Margin Requirements May Spike Oil Prices Higher
      Speculation can occur without margin. ETFs are cash-based, and any mom-and-pop investor can buy cheap ETFs (DBE is only $50) and without having to take delivery.
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    • ON: Thu May 8th 23:00 PM
      Commented on:
      DivX Looks into the Future of Web Video
      Poor analysis. Speaking from a technology standpoint, DiVX is the format of yesterday's web. Today, Adobe's Flash runs sites like YouTube and other embedded video in today's media. DiVX tried to come out with their own media years ago and it failed. It is now stuck being the format of choice for movie pirates around the world.
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    • ON: Mon Apr 28th 22:50 PM
      Commented on:
      Mid-Cap Growth: Charting a New Uptrend?
      I like the exposure VV gives me to Large Cap (S&P 500) and also Mid-Cap. Best of both world. 750 of the largest companies...
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    • ON: Sun Apr 27th 11:56 AM
      Commented on:
      There Is Plenty to Fear in This Market
      I'm still averaging in into the Large Caps with VV, MGV, and SPY, but I do feel like this rally in the past 2-3 weeks have been nothing but short covering. But this is a time in the market where you stick to your strategy. If the market does turn back down for another leg down, then I will still average in.

      But to say this whole credit crisis, housing crisis, inflation crisis, unemployment "crisis" is over in 6 months is wildly optimistic.
      View article »
    • ON: Sat Apr 26th 12:18 PM
      Commented on:
      The Case For 2-1/4
      I believe the Fed should also pause the cutting. However, I believe they will not and will cut a quarter point. My hypothesis is that if they pause now, and the worse case scenario is true, and have to cut later, that will send more shockwaves through the market since the market has already priced in a second half recovery.

      Imagine if we're in late June and we still get another cut. The whole notion of a recovery will be thrown out the window and the Dow would drop by at least 1,000 points in that scenario. Thus, the Fed will give us a quarter-point as "insurance". But expect a heavy-dose of language geared towards inflationary pressures.
      View article »
    • ON: Fri Apr 25th 00:10 AM
      Commented on:
      Confusing Volatility With Risk - A Costly Investment Mistake
      I disagree on Small-Cap Growth versus Small-Cap value. Compare VBR (Value ETF) versus VBK (Growth). VBK outperforms.

      finance.google.com/fin...;
      View article »
    • ON: Mon Apr 7th 23:24 PM
      Commented on:
      Spend Your Dollars Quickly before They Print More
      Inflation is typically a lagging indicator. I believe the "recession" will dampen demand, especially international demand for commodities.

      If not, oh well. Contrary to popular belief, the world will NOT come to and end just because oil stays above $100 a barrel.
      View article »
    • ON: Mon Apr 7th 21:12 PM
      Commented on:
      Spend Your Dollars Quickly before They Print More
      Sad to see all the MarketWatch.com Chicken Littles and inflation-kiddies start to take over here.
      View article »
    • ON: Thu Mar 27th 22:28 PM
      Commented on:
      The Credit Crunch: Taking Personal Responsibility
      At the end of the day, all those "rational" home buyers were speculators. We all do this when we buy any type of asset, whether its a car, house, stock, or even gold. Intrinsic value of any asset varies based on supply and demand. Back in 1999, everybody was saying that "stock prices always rise", and in 2005, people were saying the same things about houses. If they simply wanted a roof over their head, they would have rented a house. But we have been beat over the head by various pundits that owning a house is always a "good investment". There's a corollary to the popular phrase: [insert asset here] prices always rise--until they don't.
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    • ON: Thu Mar 20th 21:15 PM
      Commented on:
      Visa’s Record IPO: A Profitable Long-Term Investment?
      $80 by the end of the year? I am projecting $120. Even at >$200, MA is still only 30 P/E. With no credit concerns and easy revenue, owning V is "easy money" at this point.

      Disclosure: I'm buying as much as V as I can
      View article »
    • ON: Wed Mar 19th 02:52 AM
      Commented on:
      The Fed Underdelivers
      The Fed did the right move today I believe. 75bp is well enough to provide the stimulus necessary without going too overboard on inflation. Yes, true the futures markets were pricing in 100bps, but does the Fed always dance to the tune of Wall Street? Thank goodness they don't. The "recession" will lower demand of commodities, just like it has done in just about every recession, especially the last one. Lest you forget that after 9/11, Oil plunged to around $25/barrel and we have $0.99/gallon gas.

      I'm not going to go all Jim Cramer and say today was the bottom (he kinda sounded lonely saying that...). Like the guy above said, go out and play with your kids and come back in 9-12 months for the start of the next bull.
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