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Advance Auto Parts, Inc. Q1 2008 Earnings Call Transcript

AAP Beat EPS Consensus But Only With Fewer Shares

AAP beat EPS consensus by $.08 cents, listing earnings of $.86 cents per share vrs. consensus of $.78 cents per share, but if you take out all the share buybacks and keep the number of shares constant, the EPS for this quarter is $.77 cents per share. Not really beating and getting stronger if your only reducing your number of shares through buybacks, and with the buybacks making your EPS number bigger.... Just a thought....

Analysts Mixed on FormFactor's Earnings Disappointment

Oh yeah, sure it will bounce... NOT..., just like your posts on ABH and NTRI being bounce candidates. ABH went from the bounce area of $17 all the way down to $5 before it BOUNCED, and NTRI went from the bounce area of $17 down to $13 before it BOUNCED, and remember Notable Call's Headliner Article, "Bear Stearns Deal should Happen at $2," where Notable Calls was "Tempted" to SHORT!!! And let's not forget Notable Calls terrible SGP call.
I'm not saying you cannot be wrong. Everyone gets them wrong, some more then others, but for heavens sake, at least be more accurate then a coin toss. If you go through Notable Calls posts, and randomly pick out ten articles, and ten at random, Notable Calls success rate is around 50%. The most amateur, of the most amateur investor can get 50%, just toss a coin, Heads Long, Tails Short.
Just saying if you are thinking of acting on Notable Calls "Actionable" articles... LET THE BUYER BEWARE...

4 Reasons To Buy Schering-Plough On This Big Drop

Closed at $13.86 today. Could of saved money by waiting...Cheaper prices ahead...

4 Reasons To Buy Schering-Plough On This Big Drop

Closed at $14.75 today, still less then your $15.80 price. Up 34 whole cents on a day when the DOW was up a whopping 391 pts. Wow, how much is this stock going to go up if the DOW only goes up a couple of hundred points, or actually goes DOWN. What's that, I think I hear the sound of cheaper entry prices are ahead...

4 Reasons To Buy Schering-Plough On This Big Drop

Hey Notable Calls- You could have gotten it cheaper had you waited. You said you were buying around $15.80, closed today at $14.41.... Could have saved yourself some $$$.

Based on your previous calls, (Like ABH call 2/21 at $17 dollars, could have bought it for TEN DOLLARS eight days later!!!) I'll just wait for it to drop much much much much much more.

Seems to be the way your calls go. Nothing personal...

Amend Jingle Mail Laws

Man, what a dopey article. I say dopey because of the comment, "In Europe, there is little walking away from houses with negative equity because Europeans are legally liable for negative differences between their house value and mortgage amount."

In America, homeowners are legally liable too. A homeowner signs a legal, binding, ENFORCEABLE CONTRACT, and if the moneowner walks away from the house (or mails the keys), a bank can, AND WILL, take the homeowner to court to get a judgement for the amount owed. If judgement is granted the bank, the homeowner's wages can be garnished to satisfy the judgement.

You make it sound like the laws and courts systems in Europe take contractual law more seriously then in the U.S., well thats bull. Homeowners who default on their mortgages will be taken to court. A bank's loss on an $8000 credit card will probably be written off, but a banks loss of $75000 on a mortgage will cause the bank to seek legal counsel to try and recover what they can.

There is no "FREE" lunch, not in Europe, and definitely not in America, just try to walk away from a mortagage with a large balance due and see what happens...

Thornburg's a Huge Bargain After Monday's Crash

This looks good:

TMA Thornburg Mortg files 8-K filing; On March 19, 2008, the Board of Directors amended this amendment to the Bylaws to permit an investor to acquire in the offering shares of stock with a value at the time of acquisition of up to $300 mln (1.27 +0.14)

Co announces in an 8-K that on March 18, 2008, the Board of Directors of Thornburg Mortgage, Inc. (the "Company") approved an amendment to the Co's Amended and Restated Bylaws (the "Bylaws"). Certain provisions of Maryland law effectively limit the amount of the Co's stock that can be owned by any person. The Board of Directors amended the provision under the Maryland Control Share Acquisition Act that, with certain exceptions, eliminates the voting rights of any person who acquires in excess of 10% of the Co's voting stock unless two-thirds of the shares eligible to vote approve such voting rights. The amendment would have permitted an investor in the offering that the Coy is undertaking in connection with its entry into an override agreement with counterparties to its reverse repurchase, securities lending and auction swap agreements and related recapitalization efforts (collectively, the "Offering") to acquire up to 30% of shares of stock from the Co, provided that the Co receives acceptable evidences and assurances that such ownership would not jeopardize the Co's REIT qualification and an officer of the Co provides a written consent to such acquisition. On March 19, 2008, the Board of Directors amended this amendment to the Bylaws to permit an investor to acquire in the Offering shares of stock from the Co with a value at the time of acquisition of up to $300 mln, provided that the Co receives the assurances and an officer of the Co provides a written consent as described above. This description of the amendment to the Bylaws does not purport to be complete and is qualified in its entirety by reference to the full text of the amendment, which is attached hereto as Exhibit 3.2 and is incorporated by reference herein.

Thornburg's a Huge Bargain After Monday's Crash

I 2nd Crazee_Traders thoughts. This Investment Thread is the best I have seen, and I've been reading "Financial boards" since the late 90's, and most boards are worthless with just "Pumping & Dumping" comments,and calling each other names, or just posting short worthless comments like, "RIMM going to $500 baby, Eat $%#t shorts!!!". Jack and many of the other posters have really put forth some insightful writing on the stock, TMA, and this thread has been a pleasure to read.
Last week, based on the Feds actions, I went into this stock long, and I am staying with it. The latest board actions have hit the stock hard, but I am not selling, I will stay until, "My Targets" are reached, or until the stock goes under, which could happen. The risk is there, always has been. Would not be the first time for me, but in this line of work, low priced stocks go bankrupt, (Unless, of course, the Fed bails you out) Low priced stocks have a low price for a reason...

In Defense of Jim Cramer on Bear Stearns

People have called Cramer thousands of times tens of sthousands of times about STOCKS! Cramer "I'd load up on blank, I'd sell blank, I would be a buyer of blank, etc., etc., and all the calls are about what he thinks of the STOCKS, but THIS time, THIS time he was talking about the deposit money at BSC and not the stock. yeah right. Show me one time, just one time in all the bank buys and sells where Cramer spoke of deposit money. Anyone who listens to Cramer gets what they deserve...

Thornburg's a Huge Bargain After Monday's Crash

WOW, with Bear Stearns selling out for $2.00 dollars a share, TMA is valued higher then Bear Stearns. TMA market cap $350 million vrs Bear Stearns market cap of $226 million, We must have somehow gone through "Alice in Wonderland's" looking glass, where up is down, and Large Cap Financial stocks are actually small cap stocks, they just don't know it yet.

Thursday's Rumor: Bear Goes Belly Up (Who's Next?)

Went Long the Bear at $29.90. We'll see if I am a genius or a complete idiot???

Thornburg's a Huge Bargain After Monday's Crash

Hi Jack,

You have posted many great articles which have been a pleasure reading. With the Feds recent action, I think the downside risk is countered by TMA's upside potential, so I have taken a good size position, average cost, $3.33. Obviously by today's volume and price movement, and upgrade by Bear Sterns, others far smarter then me think so too.

Thornburg's a Huge Bargain After Monday's Crash

Sorry Jack, TMA now at $1.93. Catching the falling knives can be tough...

Any Hope Left for Thornburg after Devastating Action and 50% Drop?

Mark- It sounds like you are not following your own rules now when you say, "At this point, I am simply going to hold on with this substantial loss, and see where things go ..."
In a previous article you said,

"Now, if we are talking a 3 week swoon that is one thing, but structural stock retreats over time, are losses - no matter what the financial press tries to feed you. A common mistake we all make is to sit in a position awaiting than "much anticipated rebound" just so we can "break even".
Sounds like your holding now "just to break even."
Good luck with that strategy.

Thornburg's a Huge Bargain After Monday's Crash

Hi Jack,

How did you do with TMA today, Tuesday, 3/4/08?? Closed down $.76 cents today at $3.56. You may have taken quite a hit today. Not sure what your average cost is, sounds to be around $4.04 a share. (20,000 at $3.81 & 10,000 at $4.51) At 30,000 shares, average cost $4.04, sounds like you took a $14,700 dollar loss today. (12% ONE DAY HIT) So what is your time line on this stock??? Did you have a stop loss in place, TMA could go down some more. A bargain at $4.00, a bargain at $3.00, I think it will also be a bargain at $2.00. I wish you luck.