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  • Twitter slides following critical WSJ column on CEO [View news story]
    I would guess that Anthony Noto will be the next CEO.
    Dick Costolo followed Ev Williams, Ev Wiliams followed Jack Dorsey,
    Jack Dorsey followed Noah Glass.
    The board is always in control, otherwise TWTR would never have come
    that far.
    Listening to earnings call I get the feeling that DickC is a lame duck already.
    Nov 12, 2014. 01:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Benchmarking Tableau's S-1: How 7 Key SaaS Metrics Stack Up [View article]
    My view on Tableau:
    As a company:
    From an outside perspective selling software looks easier than it really is. Having a superior product is not sufficient. Sales cycles can take very long and company purchase processes might be "irrational".
    On that scale Tableau is doing a very good job but selling software worth 100 mns worth of dollars remains a tough job.Currently the international visibility of Tableau is in its early stages but also quite promising. However entering markets and replacing existing vendors might take some time.
    I work as an independent consultant mainly with SAS based BI software but I get a lot in touch with other software solutions.
    My first impression with Tableau software was last year at a conference shortly after their IPO. Products are really impressive. They have a special appeal to business users who don't like to bother too much with IT departments.

    As an investment:
    Tableau is expected to grow revenues to about 450 mn next year.
    Market cap is about 5bn. I personally do think that's too much.
    On the other hand it might be justified if Tableau is valued as strategic acquisition target.
    As I posted in an earlier comment: Reminds me of Informatica $INFA in its early days.Similar success story, very promising, great products but growth rates slowed down over time.
    Sep 25, 2014. 02:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Benchmarking Tableau's S-1: How 7 Key SaaS Metrics Stack Up [View article]
    Tomasz: I totally agree with fincyn. I'd like to add my two cents:
    "I'd rather be vaguely right than precisely wrong" (Keynes)
    In order to be vaguely right I prefer:

    (1) Back-of-the-envelope calculation Tableau software prices (to be matched versus revenue figures):
    (2) Checking competitive environment:  Players, products, pricing, business models, technology, market size, sales forces. (I work in the industry, I'm kind of biased)

    Sep 24, 2014. 08:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tableau Software: Price Matters [View article]
    @my_symphony: Tableau is doing quite well in it's segment. They are leader of the pack. Check out Gartners 2013 vs 2014 report:

    As software company you try to make the customer dependent on your products and services, so that they cannot use another vendor without substantial switching costs.
    That's hard to achieve in business analytics.

    => what are the odds for DATA growing into current 5 bn market cap ? I am doubtful, but wouldn't be suprised to see the stock moving to $100 again.
    Sep 20, 2014. 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tableau Software: Price Matters [View article]
    Remember Cognos, Microstrategy, Business Objects, Informatica ?

    Tableau Software is a great company and products are great.
    (I have seen these really impressive tools and had talks with the company)

    However: This market is very competitive with many players in
    a rapidly changing technological environment.

    Tableau Software is serving a niche within the BI market segment. There is pressure from below by products like Excel, competition from peers and pressure from above by enterprise players like SAS, SAP, Oracle and IBM.
    Reporting tools can easily be replaced, i.e. limited "moat".

    Based on $72 share price, enterprise value is about 4.4 bn.
    Estimated sales for 2015 is on average 434 mn.
    Total operating expenses for 2014-Q2 were 86 mn , sales 90mn.

    When considering all these facts DATA is just too expensive for my taste.
    Reminds me of INFA in its early days and I would expect a similar longterm chart.


    Investor relation slide is more misleading than helpful.
    1: BI-Tools market - what's the size of DATA's market segment in IDC's definition
    (for sure those 13bn are not reporting tools alone)
    2: Information worker - These numbers by Forrester seem far too optimistic
    (what is the definition anyway)
    3: Spreadsheet usage: So according to Forrsight 363 mn information workers used spreadsheet tools in 2012 ??

    DATA's current 21000 customers cannot be translated into information workers since it is server based software.
    => presentation slide is bullshit (but yes market is growing, just pick the proper metric)
    Sep 18, 2014. 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zyngaphobia Creates A King-Size Buying Opportunity [View article]
    @Ali: Thanks for the article.
    Also worth noting:
    Dividend ex-date is Sep26, 49.6 cents.
    Short coverage the next days should be expected.
    Sep 12, 2014. 08:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyst Concerns And Poor Stock Performance Could Open Doors To Strong Declines At King Digital Entertainment's Lockup Expiration [View article]
    you write:
    "All of these parties will likely be eager to unload shares in KING, as it remains unclear that the firm will ever be able to replicate the success of Candy Crush Saga and recover its share value."

    Any proof for that ?
    In my opinion affiliate and non affiliate investors have already signaled that there is a long term interest and that they won't be selling at any price.
    So far KING does have outstanding(!) financials and is nicely generating cash. It is just a matter of time until the underlying value of the company will be reflected in the stock price.
    Company is currently priced for medium term failure.
    I doubt that early investors share that point of view.
    Sep 11, 2014. 05:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyst Concerns And Poor Stock Performance Could Open Doors To Strong Declines At King Digital Entertainment's Lockup Expiration [View article]
    Don, when are you going to correct the article ?
    Sep 10, 2014. 05:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter Is Still Struggling To Find Its Purpose [View article]
    Good article.
    The Twitter we see today is not the same it used to be in Ev, Biz and Jack days.
    The company managed to get the platform stable, attract advertisers money and to
    become more professional overall.

    This wasn't an easy task, but Dick Costolo and his team did a great job.
    I'd assume though that the VCs behind the scenes had massive influence regarding the latest moves.
    And if the numbers won't rock, Costolo will be the next one to "take on an advisory role".

    I used to be short to 30 levels, but that territory is too hot nowadays.
    TWTR has too much brilliant employees which might crack the money making formula. However in no case I'll be long in the stock, financials are just too shallow so far.
    Jul 29, 2014. 02:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Bank Of America Downgrades King Digital [View article]
    @Jeffrey: your article on June 9th made far more sense to me than this one.
    Current valuation of king is still very attractive unless business will decline.
    So far there is no indication of a slowing business. Quite the opposite.

    Second quarter 2014 financial results will be released after market close on Tuesday, August
    That's what matters and will have far greater impact on the stock price
    than current market jitters.

    From an investors point of view I like the fact that the odds are high for the stock price to move to its "correct" position in the near future. (which could be P/E of 20)
    Jul 23, 2014. 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Things You Should Know About King Digital [View article]
    @littup: I agree. There are companies out there just selling future profits to shareholders and getting "quite nice" valuations.
    I see KINGs current valuation as an opportunity to play this current market view.
    I do expect limited downside and upside price to P/E levels of around 20.

    By the way: I did some field testing on Bubble Witch Saga 2 on the IPad.
    Release date 05/19/14. I had to delete it. Too addictive, that game is very well done. Huge potential.
    Jul 19, 2014. 01:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • King "Deals" Up Ancient World Mystery and Magic with its First Card-Based Mobile Game, Pyramid Solitaire Saga [View article]
    @englishstriker: do you expect declining revenues in the long run for ?
    Jul 5, 2014. 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter: 3 Reasons Why I Am Bullish [View article]
    " Noto received 1.5 million restricted common stock units along with the option to buy an additional 500,000 shares. This package clearly aligns Noto's pay with TWTR's stock performance."

    Well that's around 60 million $ at current levels.
    No wonder @anthonynoto tweeted on July 1st:

    "I could not be more excited about joining the @Twitter team & helping them reach every person in the world. #indispensable"
    Jul 3, 2014. 11:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Things You Should Know About King Digital [View article]
    regarding management:
    Interview CEO Riccardo Zacconi from 06/2012 at internet conference LeWeb
    in London.
    Very focused, result oriented , started in 2003, profitable since 2005 and they delivered.Interview partner Eric Eldon seemed a bit skeptic, but Riccardo Zacconi has a clear vision.
    Jun 18, 2014. 11:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Things You Should Know About King Digital [View article]
    Pamela, great article, thank you!
    My two cents: I am considering three basic scenarios:
    Scenario 1: Revenues/earnings are sustainable (flat) at current levels
    => longterm buy, stock will rise to proper valuation

    Scenario 2: Assumptions in your DCF model
    => screaming buy

    Scenario 3: Revenues decreasing over time to 2012 levels
    => avoid, but don't short

    I am currently positioned long at scenario 1. What I like about the company is:

    1. its outstanding management team, which has a longterm perspective.
    2. this company is making money, not only creating only phoney NON GAAP earnings
    3. checked the most recent game "Bubble Whitch Saga", it's well done
    Jun 14, 2014. 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment