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JWG

JWG
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  • The Good Times Should Get Even Better For Good Times Restaurants [View article]
    John L,

    Interesting idea.

    Looking at your chart above of revenue since 2009,
    revenue was falling very steeply until this year. What
    was the problem?

    Looking at the stock price, it fell from $3 to $2 last August.
    What was the cause of that?

    tia/jwg
    Feb 15 05:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking David Einhorn's Portfolio - Q4 2013 Update [View article]
    JV, you wrote:

    GDX position was increased by ~47% to a 4.04% position in Q2 2013 at prices between $37.85 and $46.90.

    However, at no time during Q2 2013 did GDX trade north of $36, according to Yahoo and Google. Nor do they report any splits during or after Q2 that might cause the data to have been adjusted. Can you check your data and document your exact source?

    thanks
    JWG
    Feb 15 03:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Is Rewriting The Textbooks; Likely Headed Lower, Will Test Critical $1,200 Level [View article]
    Hi Recusant,
    I wanted to add in my previous that your view, that China is threatening to become the world's reserve currency, is not that uncommon. I think it's silly, for the reasons I gave, but certainly, you are not alone in that belief. I would have added that but the website took my post before I was read and wouldn't let me edit it. sorry.
    "Even despotic Putin is far more popular in the world than anyone in the US."
    You can't be serious?!?! A laughing-stock is more like it.
    But enough. Good luck to ya.
    /jg
    Feb 8 01:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Is Rewriting The Textbooks; Likely Headed Lower, Will Test Critical $1,200 Level [View article]
    @Recusant: "China could easily step up to take over if the US falters."

    That's the most preposterous nonsense I've seen on SA for a while, and that's saying something. Their banking system is rotten to the foundations. Half the economy is still SOE's that are dead men walking. The strong yen was based on huge trade surpluses, which cannot in the current world be maintained. They lack sufficient energy, water, and air. Their GDP growth and job creation is based on massive gov't investment in infrastructure and construction, and they desperately need to change that to a consumer-oriented economy, but they cannot for many reasons, not least because it would upset the party princelings' gravy train of graft.

    And seriously: what third nation would really trust the Chinese to manage the world's reserve currency less unfairly than the Americans do? Just consider the way foreign firms are treated. Sure, America abuses the "exorbitant privilege," but keep some perspective. Without claiming that America is always as transparent and respectful of published laws as we ought to be, there is still nothing remotely like American levels of transparency or rule of law in China.

    By the way, Recusant: From exactly what authority are you recusing yourself?
    /jwg
    Feb 7 11:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Realistic Possibilities In The Face Of Serious Liquidity Issues [View article]
    Thanks!
    - jg
    Feb 6 09:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Realistic Possibilities In The Face Of Serious Liquidity Issues [View article]
    DDA, you mentioned reading credit documentation. I always wondered: how do guys like you find stuff like that? Isn't it generally non-public info that the company doesn't just give out? Or do you get it 'cuz you work for a lender that they need, so you can demand it?

    /jg
    Feb 6 07:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Realistic Possibilities In The Face Of Serious Liquidity Issues [View article]
    I don't think the experience with major-league baseball illuminates the case at JCP very much. Fans don't have anywhere else to go for big-league baseball. But people have a lot of other extremely competitive places to buy shirts.

    /jg
    Feb 5 08:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Realistic Possibilities In The Face Of Serious Liquidity Issues [View article]
    I understand that reservation.
    /jg
    Feb 5 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Realistic Possibilities In The Face Of Serious Liquidity Issues [View article]
    Amen to what 12306121 said.

    DD, you expressed reluctance to get too deep into debt analysis on SA because it's an equity investor's site, and also because it's a retail investor's site and retail investors can't invest in credit default swaps and similar debt instruments..

    I would encourage you (and others) to write all you want about debt. It's conventional wisdom, which I believe, that the debt guys are smarter than the equity side in analyzing companies' actual financial and economic condition, because they have to be. What got me interested in the JCP soap opera in the first place was somebody on SA who remarked that JCP bonds had bounced. I'd find it equally informative to hear about what credit default swaps are telling you, about JCP or anything else, never mind that I'll never invest in one. Fliper's comments above were also interesting and a new tactical idea for me.

    So don't hold back on that account.
    /jwg
    Feb 5 04:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Realistic Possibilities In The Face Of Serious Liquidity Issues [View article]
    Great article. Write more! tnx/jwg
    Feb 4 10:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Rule: Buy American Capital Below $13.33 [View article]
    Whew. That was the least worrisome possible response. (:-).
    Tnx/jwg
    Feb 4 09:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Is Rewriting The Textbooks; Likely Headed Lower, Will Test Critical $1,200 Level [View article]
    Robert,
    I like your contribution but observe that it is purely technical, not fundamental, and largely ignores that gold is a world market, and motivations for buying gold are very different outside America.
    Felix Zulauf, perennial gold bug and Barrons Roundtable contributor, is your [almost] perfect opposite: bullish on gold, largely fundamental in approach, itemizing developments by country. See his comments in the Roundtable, part 1 of 3, dated Jan 18.
    I've heard viewpoints like yours before, and viewpoints like his many times. What I would really sit up for would be if you, or a gold bear like you, responded to his comments point by point and explained whether you disagree and why.

    Just a suggestion. Thanks for this post.
    /jwg
    Feb 3 11:42 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Rule: Buy American Capital Below $13.33 [View article]
    Philip,

    I returned to this article in anticipation of 4Q 2013 results. I'm interested in your point about how to value ECAS, and I understand it qualitatively. But I've been trying to reverse engineer your calculations, and I'm $5M off. $5M is not material but it makes me wonder if I'm looking at the same thing you were.

    You wrote in the O.P. that "Since the European subsidiary is owned and operated by ACAS, the consolidation of assets is legitimate for valuation purposes and the NAV of the subsidiary's assets should have been used. This results in adding $225 million to the ACAS NAV"

    Where did you get $225M from? I'm looking at at the June 30 ACAS 10-Q, page 53, table at the bottom of the page. They give ECAS's NAV as 1,022 M, but its fair value as $802M, which is a discount of $220M not $225M. Were you using some other source here?

    tia/jwg
    Feb 3 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power: Out Of The Pipe And Into The Light [View article]
    Simont,
    Maybe fair points about Axion; I don't follow Axion and don't know its particular history. I was only disagreeing with your over-general assertion that repeated capital raises are always a sign of incompetent management.
    cheers
    /jg
    Feb 2 11:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power: Out Of The Pipe And Into The Light [View article]
    Simont wrote, "I don't know but something just smells wrong with the management team. You cannot and should not go out and keep diluting your shareholders every year."

    I have no opinion about Axion, but as a generalization, that statement is very far from reality.

    Essentially all venture-funded, pre-IPO startups work just like that. Every "round" of startup financing dilutes the earlier shareholders. It is normal because (a) if the startup is winning, it needs to grow investment well before the effect is seen in sales, and that makes it a net consumer of cash; (b) if it is losing, the choice is to shut down or double down, and if the existing investors think there is still a chance to get it turned around, they have to accept (often serious) dilution to get more cash to keep going.

    Public shareholders, both retail and institutional, appear to be much less tolerant of reason (a), probably mostly because public companies are bigger and usually no longer growing by 50% per year. Therefore dilution is usually for reason (b), i.e. the company is in trouble.

    Even then you cannot generalize and say it's bad management. You have to look at the reasons why the company is having problems and decide whether those causes were avoidable, and more importantly, whether they will continue or can be overcome. It's the difference between something like Kodak, which is just going to bleed for years and then die, and a startup with a viable idea that just took longer to get airborne than expected and they need more runway.

    /jg
    Feb 2 02:44 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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