prescient11

100 Comments

    • The Last Days of Morgan Stanley [view article]
      Delete my comment why don't you, you piece of garbage. Oct 09 10:18 PM
    • GGP Suspends Dividend in Attempt to Address Liquidity Concerns [view article]
      Way to go Reggie Middleton. Great call. Oct 06 12:27 PM
    • Hank Paulson: Smartest Man in the Room [view article]
      Do only doom and gloom freaks post here. I will say that I think Paulson has an idea of what this is. Do you morons really think that he and his lieutenants, who have been working for 24 hours straight for months, do not understand the problems.

      Yes, all you are geniuses and Paulson knows nothing. The author may be a little too much in favor of Hank, but it's clear that Paulson has some plan. A lot better than what I've heard from the uber-bears. Most of which I see post again and again on these articles with nothing ever to say.       Oct 01 11:50 PM
    • Did the FDIC Sabotage WaMu's Management and Erode Investor Confidence? [view article]
      yes, FDIC limits need to be raised, at least $500k. Sep 28 04:17 PM
    • Worrying About Large-Deposit Bank Runs [view article]
      Well well well Felix, I see that these SOBs are being investigated for aggressive short selling and CDS manipulation. Care to apologize to Dear John Thain now, or will you never own up to your own ignorance and mistakes. Sep 26 06:05 PM
    • Credit Default Swaps: The Show Isn't Over [view article]
      You've got to look behind the data, as some "indices" are acting entirely irrational, the ABX index trades as if the subprime loans will default at a rate over 100%, that's not even possible.

      An index is not the be all end all, and at many times can reflect trader's irrationalities as well. Something to monitor and be aware of, but not the true measure by any means.       Sep 16 03:18 PM
    • Liquidity or Solvency? Sometimes It's Hard to Tell [view article]
      This is exactly the question that needs to be asked. Sep 16 03:08 PM
    • Lehman is Toxic at Any Price [view article]
      Excellent point, these monday morning quarterbacks always chirp up about this time... Sep 14 04:34 AM
    • AIG: The Mark-to-Lehman Market [view article]
      Where are you at Felix? I suppose an intelligent response to your articles is too much. You were wrong with your exchange with Dear John Thain, and you are wrong now. The idea that this is just an efficient market is a lie perpetrated and repeated by fools.

      Do not be one.       Sep 13 04:47 PM
    • Down With Rating Agencies! Plus, Lehman for Laymen [view article]
      Ratings agencies should be sued out of existence, how has that not happened? Sep 13 01:45 PM
    • AIG: The Mark-to-Lehman Market [view article]
      There is an interesting article about CDS speculators essentially engaging in aggressive naked short selling TO FORCE THE DEFAULT of companies by driving their share price to the ground. Thus, they cannot raise capital because of this ridiculous low share price and most do not want to purchase the company because the shares don't stop dropping.

      Now, we can argue about the merits of whether they should have raised capital when their share price was higher, but that really puts the cart before the horse, doesn't it. In other words, I find it ridiculous that if LEH has adequate capital levels, that it should be forced to dilute shareholders at $20/share to raise ADDITIONAL capital so that the "market" will feel comfortable with its business. You do see the vicious cycle that is happening here, don't you.

      Banking is about trust. Assume LEH has adequate capital at $20/share, thus no need to dilute shareholders at this price or raise additional capital. Then, "rumors" about LEH's assets and losses start to percolate on the street. Hedgies with enormous assets and the ability to leverage ridiculous pressure, drive the share price down, scaring all of the investors and LEH's customers/counterparti... that perhaps LEH isn't stable. Thus, funds are removed from LEH even though they had sufficient capital, and now LEH's share price is at such a ridiculously low level and unstable that no one wants to invest. Thus, their capital continues to bleed as a result of this, and problems occur. How about that Felix, why don't any of you uber-bears ever address that frigging point.

      It's so frigging obvious it's ridiculous. Look at the action in the bonds and the CDSs, to the extent one can. After BSC no fool is going to be as transparent as buying crazy out of the money put options. But I bet the real play is in the bond and CDS market. If one restored the uptick rule and banned naked shorting out right FOR ALL COMPANIES then this would cease. Cramer is absolutely right here.

      And where is the damn SEC, the damn OTS, the damn Fed, the damn Treasury, our FRIGGING OFFICIALS PAID TO STOP THIS. They fiddle while Rome burns and these companies' debts are forced upon the taxpayer. My own conspiracy theory is that they want this forced consolidation of financial companies. For what purpose, who knows. But I find the fact that nothing is done about these obvious manipulations to be absurd. Naked shorting is already illegal, why has it not been stopped?

      Of course, LEH must bear a bit of the blame. In this environment, diluting shareholders at $20 is much better than a forced sale at $2, given that what happens above is obvious and will continue to happen until "the Street manipulators" are satisfied. Until then, the carnage will continue. But the wealth destruction we are witnessing, and subsequent taxpayer burdens, without any intervention by regulators, is ridiculous.

      As goes the famous saying, "when they came for me, there was no one left to stand to object..." True words indeed.       Sep 13 01:19 PM
    • Debating the Lehman Collapse [view article]
      Both are right. Dear John Thain is more right, much more so. The damn SEC sits on its hands and does NOTHING while short sellers and hedge funds ILLEGALLY naked short sell LEH to death which CAUSES counterparties to lose confidence and this leads to the spiral we are witnessing. Plain and simple.

      However, LEH should know better and have become much more transparent about its situation, and they should have done so 2Q. Which is why MER might be a good bet to pick up on these drives down - I haven't studied it but at least they appear to try and deal with these issues.

      At the heart of this though, DEAR JOHN THAIN is exactly right. And further, this whole mark to market fiasco needs to stop. If your neighbor's house goes into foreclosure and sells for $10,000, does that mean your previously $300,000 house is worth $10,000.

      But we have leaderless government that does nothing proactive other than goofy "bailouts" rather than getting to the heart of the matter. Ever wonder why? They want consolidation, they want more control over the matters, and if bankers weren't so damn stupid, now they're going to have Uncle Sam in their business for years to come.

      Short selling abuses - illegal naked shorting - was supposed to be stopped in July. It is now September and it is occurring by every sheeple hedge fund with an "idea" to throw around.       Sep 12 12:37 PM
    • Lehman Won't Be the Last Major Bank Failure [view article]
      A few major banks may "fail", but you're wrong on the CDS deal, that will be taken care of. Same way FDIC will not accept a WM failure. Imho. Sep 12 08:01 AM
    • Could Lehman's Failure Cause a Systemic Meltdown? [view article]
      The answer, obviously, is yes. Does no one read? JPM looked at what would happen if BSC was just allowed to fail and it concluded, with I think a 90% certainty, that the major IBs would ALL FAIL, including GS.

      Think about that for a second, the exposures are so great that it would bring down GS.

      If you think the government is going to allow that to happen, think again. However, equity holders will likely be wiped out since the Fed./Treasury is rumored to be involved. Sad case.       Sep 11 06:03 PM
    • Time To Bail Out WaMu? [view article]
      Damn, someone beat me to it. Sep 10 01:40 PM
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