Thanks sukher. and we are agreed on what you said re stans. Mickey Fulp has an excellent, excellent piece on HREE that anyone should read before investing.
GWG at .25 is a great cost basis. I would sell them if they get over a $1, as they are priced for perfection. The SA nationalization possibility is why I didn't buy them to start, as well as a few other things.
But I think you will do well given the attention that I think this sector is going to get. Could go well over a $1, but that would be my trigger. It's impossible to quantify the nationalization risk, but that's a big step and I would be shocked if it was not somewhat telegraphed ahead of time, at least so you could get out. But who knows.
REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, June 15, 2011 [View instapost]
This is a very good post. The problem with GWG is, I think everyone must understand that their production will feed LCM and probably not much else. In other words, they will not be supplying the market with much.
And they are in SA, which is potentially a tenuous jurisdiction. Same goes for MCP - California might be tough to get going. And we already see the issues LYC is having.
Despite the apparent bickering between supporters of MCP and LYC, I am hopeful that they both are a smashing success and soon.
REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, June 15, 2011 [View instapost]
My prediction, based on nothing more than my opinion, is that we will see a roaring bull market in the REE space by this July/August, if the world has not fallen off a cliff in the meantime.
REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, June 15, 2011 [View instapost]
And yes, I am counting on Keith Bradsher to see through the "inflated numbers" on the quotas and point out what a crazy drop it is if the stated number is 30k for all of 2011, which now includes alloys!
REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, June 15, 2011 [View instapost]
Chihawk,
Thanks for the link and yeah, I've read Jack's piece. I think most underestimate MCP's intellectual property. They are the bluechip in this space. I would buy both Baotou and MCP as the two majors.
Take the XSORBX filter. I love how everyone just accepts (except Jack) that MCP by definition will be supplying 40k tonnes of REEs to market by 2014/15. Yet, when MCP says they will likely be a BUYER of cerium to feed XSORBX, no one takes that seriously. Half of MCP's output will be cerium, that means that MCP (in a perfect world) will only be supplying 20k tonnes to the market, a BIG change in supply structure.
You and I are going to have to disagree on the "market" however. The market just took down 10MM shares at a 10% premium to the spot market. These aren't homegamers, this is big big money.
Shorts are so invested in trying to cover cheaply, I think it has driven a lot of the sector down hard. Hopefully they finish their business and the sector can get back on track. I think MCP has a big affect just because it is the bluechip in the space.
REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, June 15, 2011 [View instapost]
Look fellas, MCP has been driven down and so has everything in the damn sector. But, despite current market price for MCP being $48, someone just took down 10MM shares at $51, almost a 10% premium.
That is BIG news. Further, contrary to that idiot Hykawy's comments that the original insiders are maintaining a substantial stake in the company. Consider that they bought MCP originally for $132MM. After the IPO they have 65% of the company. They have reduced their stake to 40%.
You would have to be an idiot if they would not lighten up a bit and take SOME profits. Of course they would.
But they still have 40% of the company at a $2 and change/share cost basis. THAT IS AN AMAZING VOTE OF CONFIDENCE.
I am hopeful that closing this deal will finally turn around the whole damn sector.
On to the China daily article. Did you see that mention on export quotas that says future quotas will be around 30k tonnes. Perhaps that's a sneak peak. Problem is, that includes rare earth ALLOYS as well as the pure elements (10% + REE content).
That has never been done before. Which means that the pure REE quotas are going to be much much less!!! Just curious if anybody has a way to back out the alloy number from the 30k figure to ascertain exactly what the pure REE quotas are.
REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, June 15, 2011 [View instapost]
GWG is starting to get down to attractive levels again. I would say look hard in the .40s if it gets down there, but I hope it doesn't.
2H quota release is the tell here. If they match 2H of 2010, then here we go. As long as there is not an increase above the 15k tonnes level, then I think a fire is lit under this space big time.
Jesse, I really do not wish to list HREE's problems, and of course there are many.
Labrador eh? BZone is in Quebec, so you obviously don't know what you're talking about. The "metallurgist" sold a few shares after the met release, and has sold about 100k out of 600k+.
I'm sure you subscribe to the "hykawy" theory of abandonment, eh??
but I guess you've got a mining background as well, and can show us where and how wardrop's pea is so "flawed". Btw, where is stans' PEA? 43-101? etc., etc. Hey, I wish that all potential near term producers would have success, just saying that I like QRM over HREE for very many reasons.
One would rather build a facility from scratch, than use HREE's.
Quest is my number one pick. I would not touch HREE and I will caution you to be very careful with Stans, even though I like the ticker change from RUU.
Arafura will be solid, but the problem is they are majority owned by the Chinese. Not sure what that means but it makes me wary.
REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, June 14, 2011 [View instapost]
TripleBlack,
How do I find this instablog every day? Chihawk and I had a rather "spirited" discussion the other day in regards to NTU and QRM.
Reading his posts here, he seems like a good guy, just not wise to pop up and say a company is "toast", especially given the current market environment.
So, are you guys all playing the crazy speculatives, or do you ever talk about the "cream of the crop" juniors??
'Cashed Up' REEs Ready to Go [View article]
'Cashed Up' REEs Ready to Go [View article]
GWG at .25 is a great cost basis. I would sell them if they get over a $1, as they are priced for perfection. The SA nationalization possibility is why I didn't buy them to start, as well as a few other things.
But I think you will do well given the attention that I think this sector is going to get. Could go well over a $1, but that would be my trigger. It's impossible to quantify the nationalization risk, but that's a big step and I would be shocked if it was not somewhat telegraphed ahead of time, at least so you could get out. But who knows.
Best of luck.
REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, June 17, 2011 [View instapost]
LYC should be fine, both MCP and LYC are going to be able to capture a lot of FOB pricing.
For all juniors, we should be rooting these companies on to succeed.
'Cashed Up' REEs Ready to Go [View article]
As far as JORC, query why a Canadian listed company would be doing an Aussie version of the "get out of jail free card"?
43-101, subject to regulatory disclosures and potential prosecution, is all I'm interested in.
Not to say that the JORC is inaccurate, just curious and I don't want to trust anything that potentially could turn into a bre-x type scandal.
REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, June 15, 2011 [View instapost]
And they are in SA, which is potentially a tenuous jurisdiction. Same goes for MCP - California might be tough to get going. And we already see the issues LYC is having.
Despite the apparent bickering between supporters of MCP and LYC, I am hopeful that they both are a smashing success and soon.
REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, June 15, 2011 [View instapost]
Best of luck to all fellow REE nerds.
REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, June 15, 2011 [View instapost]
REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, June 15, 2011 [View instapost]
REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, June 15, 2011 [View instapost]
Thanks for the link and yeah, I've read Jack's piece. I think most underestimate MCP's intellectual property. They are the bluechip in this space. I would buy both Baotou and MCP as the two majors.
Take the XSORBX filter. I love how everyone just accepts (except Jack) that MCP by definition will be supplying 40k tonnes of REEs to market by 2014/15. Yet, when MCP says they will likely be a BUYER of cerium to feed XSORBX, no one takes that seriously. Half of MCP's output will be cerium, that means that MCP (in a perfect world) will only be supplying 20k tonnes to the market, a BIG change in supply structure.
You and I are going to have to disagree on the "market" however. The market just took down 10MM shares at a 10% premium to the spot market. These aren't homegamers, this is big big money.
Shorts are so invested in trying to cover cheaply, I think it has driven a lot of the sector down hard. Hopefully they finish their business and the sector can get back on track. I think MCP has a big affect just because it is the bluechip in the space.
REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, June 15, 2011 [View instapost]
That is BIG news. Further, contrary to that idiot Hykawy's comments that the original insiders are maintaining a substantial stake in the company. Consider that they bought MCP originally for $132MM. After the IPO they have 65% of the company. They have reduced their stake to 40%.
You would have to be an idiot if they would not lighten up a bit and take SOME profits. Of course they would.
But they still have 40% of the company at a $2 and change/share cost basis. THAT IS AN AMAZING VOTE OF CONFIDENCE.
I am hopeful that closing this deal will finally turn around the whole damn sector.
On to the China daily article. Did you see that mention on export quotas that says future quotas will be around 30k tonnes. Perhaps that's a sneak peak. Problem is, that includes rare earth ALLOYS as well as the pure elements (10% + REE content).
That has never been done before. Which means that the pure REE quotas are going to be much much less!!! Just curious if anybody has a way to back out the alloy number from the 30k figure to ascertain exactly what the pure REE quotas are.
That's gonna be a big deal.
REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, June 15, 2011 [View instapost]
2H quota release is the tell here. If they match 2H of 2010, then here we go. As long as there is not an increase above the 15k tonnes level, then I think a fire is lit under this space big time.
Despite the neverending selling for weeks now.
'Cashed Up' REEs Ready to Go [View article]
Jesse, I really do not wish to list HREE's problems, and of course there are many.
Labrador eh? BZone is in Quebec, so you obviously don't know what you're talking about. The "metallurgist" sold a few shares after the met release, and has sold about 100k out of 600k+.
I'm sure you subscribe to the "hykawy" theory of abandonment, eh??
but I guess you've got a mining background as well, and can show us where and how wardrop's pea is so "flawed". Btw, where is stans' PEA? 43-101? etc., etc. Hey, I wish that all potential near term producers would have success, just saying that I like QRM over HREE for very many reasons.
One would rather build a facility from scratch, than use HREE's.
But good luck to you.
REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, June 14, 2011 [View instapost]
'Cashed Up' REEs Ready to Go [View article]
Arafura will be solid, but the problem is they are majority owned by the Chinese. Not sure what that means but it makes me wary.
REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, June 14, 2011 [View instapost]
How do I find this instablog every day? Chihawk and I had a rather "spirited" discussion the other day in regards to NTU and QRM.
Reading his posts here, he seems like a good guy, just not wise to pop up and say a company is "toast", especially given the current market environment.
So, are you guys all playing the crazy speculatives, or do you ever talk about the "cream of the crop" juniors??