prescient11

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108 Comments

    • Sun Mar 16th 01:09 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Bailout's Pathetic - Here's Who To Blame
      Chicken little, chicken little. The sky is not falling. They just lack liquidity and no one will deal with them. The intrinsic value of the assets is good for the most part, it's just that people are too afraid to do business.

      Tell you what, I'll keep investing in equities, and you put the money in the mattress. How many frantic losers post on these boards. Find me a "no men wanted" sign and I'll start thinking the doom and gloom has a point.
      View article »
    • Thu Mar 13th 17:50 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Requiem for a Departing Economic System
      Are there no disclosures for this author, does he own any equity or short positions? Many thanks.
      View article »
    • Thu Mar 6th 15:45 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      E*Trade Financial: Laying the Foundation for Success
      PJ, one thing that should be asked is whether you actually read your comments. Really, stop lying on this comment section. Mr. Layton expects $1.5B in the HELOC portfolio at most, that is it, and has already been discussed.

      So again, please stop lying. By the way, Etrade will have over $1B in cash over well-capitalized levels, thus they will not likely be in such a bad situation again. TMA, unfortunately, does not have ready access to that much cash, hence the margin calls on good assets. Might not be a bad investment at these levels, but I haven't done enough dd on it.

      Jegan, you're a customer and I've got a bridge to sell you.
      View article »
    • Thu Mar 6th 09:56 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      E*Trade Financial: Great Company, Great Bargain
      No matter what you think about the company, consider this. Mr. Layton, who is not an idiot by any means and was in consideration for the top job at JP Morgan took all of his compensation to be CEO in stock options. That's right. The $1M salary he receives he was already receiving in his capacity as Chairman of the Board.

      To take the CEO job, he is taking absolutely no cash. He has nothing but stock, and his strike price is $4.27. That makes me feel pretty good about his views on where Etrade's stock price should be. Now we can listen to people opine in the comment session, or we can review the cold hard facts above. Oh, and as icing on the cake, Mr. Layton spent $1M of his own cold hard cash purchasing Etrade stock on the open market for $4.07.

      I'll put my money beside Mr. Layton's any day of the week.
      View article »
    • Thu Mar 6th 09:45 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      E*Trade Financial: Laying the Foundation for Success
      Daffy, watch that default rate, if it doesn't go above $150M on the chargeoffs we should have smooth sailing. If it is above $150M in chargeoffs on the home equity portfolio, we should probably reevaluate. I agree that we should be good though. As the author points out - book value here is just over $6.
      View article »
    • Thu Mar 6th 07:36 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      E*Trade Financial: Laying the Foundation for Success
      PJ568, wow, thanks for that brilliant insight. Good piece by the author, and yes, Mr. Layton is the right fix. $2 below book price and their capital ratio is almost twice that of Citigroup's. If the chargeoffs are at or less than $100M in the home equity portfolio for the 1Q of '08, double down on your position immediately.
      View article »
    • Sun Feb 24th 20:02 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Bank Led, Bank Insurer Bailout?!
      I think this article is very simple and fails to see the forest for the trees, and no, the Florida analogy is not apropos. The author apparently fails to realize or ignores the fact that these insurers do not only insure CDOs and other sketchy financial instruments, but they also insure municipal bonds and other financial instruments that are very strong and will not fail. If ABK loses its AAA rating, then, in a very difficult credit environment already, institutions such as Citibank will be FORCED to dump excellent performing assets along with the bad stuff.

      That would not be good for anyone. For most of the ABK insured assets, I'm sure Citi and the others are happy to hold them. Until someone can provide a breakdown of exactly how many questionable financial instruments ABK insured, and how many of these questionable instruments banks like Citi holds, as compared to their solid ABK insured assets such as municipal bonds, as a percentage of their total ABK insured assets, anybody trying to make a case that the banks are bailing out worthless assets is an idiot.
      View article »
    • Sun Feb 24th 15:31 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Seeking Alpha Now Carried On E*Trade
      Mr. Weinstein, congratulations on your recent recognition. Except for Mr. Shinnick's recent piece, Seeking Alpha has been one of the only reliable sources for accurate and unbiased information related to Etrade stock. It's nice to see your site get the recognition it deserves and it is good to see that Etrade has recognized your site's contribution to many other company analyses. Time and again Seeking Alpha is one of the only good sources of in-depth due diligence for the retail investor. I rely on it often. Thanks for sticking up for the little guy.

      I do hope your site continues to do its good investigative pieces on Etrade stock as well. I think many are going to be surprised to find out what a turn around story is happening with Etrade. For all of the noise, Etrade customers are among the most loyal around -- Etrade has shown amazing customer retention through this rough patch. Now, the company likely will win back customers and continue to survive and thrive with its superior platform and competitive nature.

      It is quite fitting that two renegades, if you will, in the online arena have recognized each other. Etrade has questioned the established Wall Street broker model and Seeking Alpha has taken over the role of the traditional "analyst" in terms of both factual research and analysis. Congrats and best regards.
      View article »
    • Fri Feb 22nd 16:46 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Read This Before Buying E*Trade
      Newcomer:

      One thing for your model, supposing they don't refinance, the fact is that Etrade will be paying 12.5% per annum (I believe I'm right on the per annum part, but the 12.5 percentage is definitely accurate) on $1.75B from Citadel -- the remaining $800M was a cash payment for Etrade's CDO portfolio. Just curious as to how that affects your valuation modeling? Best regards.
      View article »
    • Thu Feb 21st 21:00 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Read This Before Buying E*Trade
      Brief point of clarification - $15 by 1Q '09, in my opinion.
      View article »
    • Thu Feb 21st 20:56 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Read This Before Buying E*Trade
      JBMaria, no one is hiding. Your comments normally do not need any refutation or response. I cannot believe you cut and pasted an article onto this forum. Bush league. I'm not posting on the Yahoo board until next week. By the way, any time you want to debate I'm game - just save it until next Tuesday.

      And Mr. Shinnick you're free to join us, when I laugh at some responses or comments my wife also looks at me, so I got a kick out of that. Glad to hear you added to your long position. The odds are very high you will be rewarded. My view is that we are at $15 by 1Q. Regards.
      View article »
    • Tue Feb 19th 00:39 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Read This Before Buying E*Trade
      I don't know why I checked this, but I did. Fair enough, then what was the original title? And see, you get the last word as well. Good night.
      View article »
    • Tue Feb 19th 00:21 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Read This Before Buying E*Trade
      Sigh, not to be one to always try to get the last word, but this is it, and I'll finally sign off. You stated: "I did not make a single prediction in my article with respect to buy, sell or hold. Many articles I have read make glowing ones and unabashadly say "buy" with no discussion of risks." I find that to be disingenuous at best. Respectfully, the title of your article is "Read This Before Buying Etrade." Clearly, you want potential investors to consider your article before acting. If you actually do the complete DD here, a title of a good follow up article (since you can't amend your current article) should and would be:

      "Buy Etrade". You also would likely do well to increase your current position at these levels, in my opinion. For those of your readers seeking a complete review of Etrade's portfolio and business, please refer them to the Yahoo Finance board for Etrade under the ETFC symbol. We welcome them over there for a great investment at current price levels and a discussion of the overall positions. Best of luck to all.
      View article »
    • Mon Feb 18th 23:43 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Read This Before Buying E*Trade
      Mr. Shinnick, I will leave the discussion with this. Etrade longs have long-suffered through the lies and negligent reporting from the major media, that does nothing but quote analysts who are either lying or entirely negligent. Seeking Alpha has been one refuge for the truth, where retail investors could look for great analysis, the same with the Motley Fool for the most part. That is why I took such offense to your article. We assume that Seeking Alpha will provide the complete picture, if one is to make such sweeping statements.

      I honestly do believe some clarification is in order to your conclusion. Etrade has set aside $500M, and plan to have that number over or at $1B by the end of 2008, above well-capitalized levels. This is an amazingly good capital ratio. Yes, it's true that they could still go bk presumably, but it's likely that Citigroup would get there first if the economy truly melts down to that point. Given that Etrade has already been hurt by someone yelling Fire in a crowded theater, I think it is irresponsible to say they are "precariously&quo... close when that is obviously not the case. I would respectfully submit that that portion of your article, at least, should be revised or amended to reflect exactly what a strong capital position is in, stronger than many huge household financial names these days.
      View article »
    • Mon Feb 18th 22:58 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Read This Before Buying E*Trade
      "Compost and More Compost"???

      Game, set, and match.
      View article »
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