prescient11

As Bank Industry Analysts Lose Jobs, Serious Blogs Take the Forefront

Thanks Reggie, I will. I think you've got another paid subscriber! You finally got me. Maybe you can tell me how stupid I am for being an ETFC long in this environment. argh.

As Bank Industry Analysts Lose Jobs, Serious Blogs Take the Forefront

Reggie, I thought you were done wth Seeking Alpa man? Your subscriber part of your blog is kind of whack, I keep trying to log in to no avail. My email is [e-mail] if you can help.

For those who don't know Reggie he's the best around, GGP is his crown jewel. He also called HIG and the other insurers and the downfall of the IBs. His analysis is the best. I shouldn't have closed my short on GGP in the $20s, and you shouldn't have closed it in the teens,wow!

Congrats on all the success man, you've earned it.

The Trouble with Rescues and Stimulus

I echo "I should know"'s comments completely. WFC didn't want the money. Should their shareholders suffer? The author should perhaps do her research.

The Weakness of the Treasury's New Bailout Plan

Felix, the resident genius with "concerns". Really, man, why don't you just own up to it. No plan would be perfect. And they're taking preferred shares so they do not dilute the common. While it's not as much oversight as one would like, what do you expect them to do, FORCE healthy banks to accept this capitalization and then FORCE them to accept new board members, someone probably as dense and bureaucratic as yourself.

Listen, despite your constant cabal-like effort to communicate "concerns" about everything, this is the government giving you a big middle finger, saying, listen skippy, we, the Euros, everyone is backing our banks and that's it. So move along Felix, just move along man. You've been out of your league for some time.

The financial system will not fall, it appears, based on these broad guarantees, and I think the governments of the first-world nations should be applauded for their efforts in this regard. Let's just hope the lesson has been learned and once the bleeding is stopped they fix the disease.

Down With Rating Agencies! Plus, Lehman for Laymen

Ratings agencies should be sued out of existence, how has that not happened?

Is the U.S. Banking System Safe?

Bearfund, I agree, I'm at a loss on WFC as well. Stock may even be overvalued, who knows there.

What I do know, however, is that they are not falling off a cliff and the rumors of their death had been very exaggerated.

This leads to my hypothesis that negative home values are not a direct correlation, or even a strong correlation, between the very large loss estimates the author cites and current forecasts.

we'll see how the construction loans go.

Is the U.S. Banking System Safe?

There will be more losses, but the end is not at hand. If you had bothered to review WFC's quarterly release, even accounting for their 180 day change on the chargeoff for the HELOCs, they are making money.

Imho, where uber-bears make the greatest mistake is that they believe people have a stop-loss on their house. This is not the case. Negative equity only becomes a factor when one cannot or chooses not to make the payment on the house. Thank God moving is such a pain.

More losses are likely, and many investment banks holding leveraged instruments are likely holding their losses. Whether it's a trillion, or a few more hundred billion, I don't know.

The housing rescue bill is more important than many, many, realize. GS estimated that US banks will have to raise $65B of capital. The housing bill just injected $300B onto banks balance sheets, and this should affect some downstream CDOs and other instruments as well.

Of the much-maligned baseball analogy, in my view we are likely in the bottom of the seventh inning.

The world is not ending, financials will still be around. Take a hard look at WFC's earnings release, and then you will know why it went up 22% in one day and much higher in the days that followed.

Guess what, with all the dire predictions they were still making money. Even if you put all their home equity losses on the books, that is still the case. Enjoy the summer, take the kids to the lake.