prescient11

As Bank Industry Analysts Lose Jobs, Serious Blogs Take the Forefront

Thanks Reggie, I will. I think you've got another paid subscriber! You finally got me. Maybe you can tell me how stupid I am for being an ETFC long in this environment. argh.

As Bank Industry Analysts Lose Jobs, Serious Blogs Take the Forefront

Reggie, I thought you were done wth Seeking Alpa man? Your subscriber part of your blog is kind of whack, I keep trying to log in to no avail. My email is [e-mail] if you can help.

For those who don't know Reggie he's the best around, GGP is his crown jewel. He also called HIG and the other insurers and the downfall of the IBs. His analysis is the best. I shouldn't have closed my short on GGP in the $20s, and you shouldn't have closed it in the teens,wow!

Congrats on all the success man, you've earned it.

Liquidity or Solvency? Sometimes It's Hard to Tell

This is exactly the question that needs to be asked.

Lehman Follows Good Bank/Bad Bank to Redemption

Roger,

How exactly would the mechanisms of this take place though? Obviously this is a model that many may follow, but what would the likely effect on the stock price be, there has to be some pain for dealing with all this garbage either when selling it or spinning it off?

thanks

Which Banks Will Survive?

IThinkBig, there we go, some actual discussion.

The $300B, obviously comes from the taxpayer, but it will be in the form of repackaged loans with an FHA guarantee.

Lender cuts the loan principal to 90%, issues a new FHA backed mortgage, and then can sell it in the market. Should be as liquid as a T-bill. Thus, the cash gets directly to where we desperately need it, these lenders' balance sheets. I think it will have a tremendous effect, especially with some of the biggies.

Which Banks Will Survive?

Jonathan swift, again, what a great comeback. How about writing titles like "Which Banks Will Survive?"

Can you not answer the question/point that I raised? If not, then why bother to respond. $300B is on its way. Now, do you have a point?

Which Banks Will Survive?

user 138602 and nyka,

where's the lack of analysis, damnit. sorry user if that offends you.

I made a point regarding the housing bill. Where's your counterpoint?

Thanks so much.

Which Banks Will Survive?

saltaway, respond to my point first. then we can talk.

Which Banks Will Survive?

Does this loser sit up at night thinking of what clever titles he can put out there that will grab attention? You got me, I clicked the link only to see your smug stupid face come up first thing.

Listen up skippy and listen up good, you may think you know what you're talking about, but in reality you fail to realize what's happened. Think for once damnit. Think beyond your limited capacity and the numbers you cherish. Are you stupid enough to really believe that the government is going to want to foot the bill for all the likely failures if what you profess is to take place. Of course they won't. That's why the government just injected $300B of liquidity into the banking system a la the housing bill.

Game, set and match. Go look for the sky to fall, as we're not there yet. But the smugness is really too much.

Is the U.S. Banking System Safe?

Bearfund, I agree, I'm at a loss on WFC as well. Stock may even be overvalued, who knows there.

What I do know, however, is that they are not falling off a cliff and the rumors of their death had been very exaggerated.

This leads to my hypothesis that negative home values are not a direct correlation, or even a strong correlation, between the very large loss estimates the author cites and current forecasts.

we'll see how the construction loans go.

Is the U.S. Banking System Safe?

There will be more losses, but the end is not at hand. If you had bothered to review WFC's quarterly release, even accounting for their 180 day change on the chargeoff for the HELOCs, they are making money.

Imho, where uber-bears make the greatest mistake is that they believe people have a stop-loss on their house. This is not the case. Negative equity only becomes a factor when one cannot or chooses not to make the payment on the house. Thank God moving is such a pain.

More losses are likely, and many investment banks holding leveraged instruments are likely holding their losses. Whether it's a trillion, or a few more hundred billion, I don't know.

The housing rescue bill is more important than many, many, realize. GS estimated that US banks will have to raise $65B of capital. The housing bill just injected $300B onto banks balance sheets, and this should affect some downstream CDOs and other instruments as well.

Of the much-maligned baseball analogy, in my view we are likely in the bottom of the seventh inning.

The world is not ending, financials will still be around. Take a hard look at WFC's earnings release, and then you will know why it went up 22% in one day and much higher in the days that followed.

Guess what, with all the dire predictions they were still making money. Even if you put all their home equity losses on the books, that is still the case. Enjoy the summer, take the kids to the lake.

Metrics, Mortgages and Analysts

The real expert,

Explain what you mean by risk factors and I'll let you know if I agree or disagree. I vehemently disagree about the "massive dilution" you reference, by the way.

Metrics, Mortgages and Analysts

The real expert,

We'll see won't we. I'll remember this come 1Q of '09 and we can see whose call was right.

So rather than listen to your blathering Monday morning quarterbacking about oil, etc. How about you enlighten us as to your calls that will take you to 1Q of '09 and we compare then, shall we?? I believe ETFC will yield a 200% gain by then.

We await your genius.

Metrics, Mortgages and Analysts

Wez, nice retort, as informative as your first.

Metrics, Mortgages and Analysts

Wez, really, how stupid can you be? Do you actually engage in analysis or spout off random thoughts only? Etrade has an extra $1B in cash just sitting around, in case they haven't provisioned enough. That is a HUGE cushion that can absorb any further blows.

Who said Etrade is immune? Stop constructing straw men. Etrade's stock price has been destroyed because everyone assumes they will get hit very hard. So think before the next time you write, for all of us.

Speculator, your analysis is about as good as Wez's. Thanks for your self-promoting non-analysis.