safariman

The Swine Flu Effect

Looking at recent epidemic modeling studies, I've learned that neither quarantine nor even significant world travel curtailment do much to affect the ultimate range or mortality of a disease. We don't have much of an idea yet whether the current swine flu will become a serious event or not. What does seem clear is that costly emergency preparedness procedures are ineffective, and significant travel restrictions will be counter-productive.

Disease spreads. More travel and commerce may makes it spread faster, but will not likely affect the range or mortality of the disease. No area of the world, no matter how remote, seemed to escape the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918. Despite draconian public health regulations nearly everywhere.

Vaccines and antivirals seem the best, and less intrusive option.