ANTS's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/153388/comments http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/23892?source=feed#comment-498457 498457
RIO was once regarded as the greatest mining company in Australia. Now, with the assistance of US management, it isn't.]]> Mon, 11 May 2009 01:15:15 -0400
RIO was once regarded as the greatest mining company in Australia. Now, with the assistance of US management, it isn't.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/135754-analyzing-the-nasdaq-streak?source=feed#comment-494547 494547
I have found that a dynamic valuation model is a better way to go. You can use any formula that appears appropriate but it must contain an earnings revision and market premium component. As a stock (or index) is going up,it is a combined reaction to earnings revisions (either disclosed or about to be disclosed) and changes in premium (or market sentiment).

For example analysts may be upgrading earnings, but the market is not reacting, and therefore the premium is high. At some point, the market accepts these revisions and the premium shrinks. The stock then goes for a run because the new valuation will have both higher earnings and lower premium. There are many market dynamics of this nature which are worth following.

It is the dynamic interaction between these two components, once identified and quantified, that leads to superior forecasting.]]> Thu, 07 May 2009 16:45:59 -0400
I have found that a dynamic valuation model is a better way to go. You can use any formula that appears appropriate but it must contain an earnings revision and market premium component. As a stock (or index) is going up,it is a combined reaction to earnings revisions (either disclosed or about to be disclosed) and changes in premium (or market sentiment).

For example analysts may be upgrading earnings, but the market is not reacting, and therefore the premium is high. At some point, the market accepts these revisions and the premium shrinks. The stock then goes for a run because the new valuation will have both higher earnings and lower premium. There are many market dynamics of this nature which are worth following.

It is the dynamic interaction between these two components, once identified and quantified, that leads to superior forecasting.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133711-case-shiller-housing-numbers-the-rate-of-decline-is-decreasing?source=feed#comment-482035 482035
We sometimes think it would be worthwhile selling our home in Brisbane and moving to California, until we factor in health insurance.]]> Wed, 29 Apr 2009 00:56:10 -0400
We sometimes think it would be worthwhile selling our home in Brisbane and moving to California, until we factor in health insurance.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129690-how-stock-market-indices-underperform?source=feed#comment-454065 454065 Mon, 06 Apr 2009 18:13:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/21225?source=feed#comment-451343 451343
All of this is to remind me of the "Tale of the Ancient Mariner". The moral is exactly the same, but alas not the literary merit.]]> Fri, 03 Apr 2009 18:49:09 -0400
All of this is to remind me of the "Tale of the Ancient Mariner". The moral is exactly the same, but alas not the literary merit.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128405-the-fate-of-general-motors-rick-wagoner?source=feed#comment-444900 444900
GM was actually built up during the depression wasn't it? Probably by a CEO who were very good.

The US corporate system/shareholders should be appreciative of this event, and hope that history repeats.]]> Mon, 30 Mar 2009 07:52:02 -0400
GM was actually built up during the depression wasn't it? Probably by a CEO who were very good.

The US corporate system/shareholders should be appreciative of this event, and hope that history repeats.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128393-ousting-rick-wagoner-won-t-solve-gm-s-problems?source=feed#comment-444892 444892
It showed how bad a company can get, and how a good executive can turn it around, albeit with much angst. A good read for GM's new CEO.]]> Mon, 30 Mar 2009 07:37:49 -0400
It showed how bad a company can get, and how a good executive can turn it around, albeit with much angst. A good read for GM's new CEO.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128271-book-review-getting-off-track-by-john-b-taylor?source=feed#comment-443628 443628
The situation worsened, but how are we to know that they made it worse. It is possible that the finance industry became aware of the full depth of the problem after the policy makers disclosed it. Transparency has been an issue in all of these goings on.

To blame policy makers for making it worse, one must show that doing nothing would have made it better. I dont know, but I suspect that doing nothing would have had some pretty bad consequences with counter party failures all over the place.]]> Sat, 28 Mar 2009 18:17:15 -0400
The situation worsened, but how are we to know that they made it worse. It is possible that the finance industry became aware of the full depth of the problem after the policy makers disclosed it. Transparency has been an issue in all of these goings on.

To blame policy makers for making it worse, one must show that doing nothing would have made it better. I dont know, but I suspect that doing nothing would have had some pretty bad consequences with counter party failures all over the place.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126357-what-ncaa-basketball-upsets-teach-us-about-trading?source=feed#comment-433084 433084
I adopt a system which uses what i consider statistical advantage, and it works very well in backtesting. Since 2 Jan, this system has been up almost 8% on the S&P, but then things go wrong and we fall back, but still in front.

In real time, its very hard to run a concentrated portfolio which beats an index, because there are always stocks which drop 10% in a few days which ruin the story. Try as i might, it has proven impossible to eliminate this feature. Is it just the trouble with concentrated portfolio's ??]]> Thu, 19 Mar 2009 23:14:54 -0400
I adopt a system which uses what i consider statistical advantage, and it works very well in backtesting. Since 2 Jan, this system has been up almost 8% on the S&P, but then things go wrong and we fall back, but still in front.

In real time, its very hard to run a concentrated portfolio which beats an index, because there are always stocks which drop 10% in a few days which ruin the story. Try as i might, it has proven impossible to eliminate this feature. Is it just the trouble with concentrated portfolio's ??]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/19929?source=feed#comment-428561 428561
If these executives had the thoughts ascribed, and insisted on a contract to secure their future, then they were, in normal circumstances, stupid. In normal circumstances, these employees must have considered what would happen if AIG went into bankruptcy. These employment contracts and payments would be part of a huge pile of unsecured creditors, expecting to be paid nothing at all.

It looks to me very likely that these contracts could have been considered only on the basis of a bailout being the most likely outcome. ]]> Mon, 16 Mar 2009 21:31:38 -0400
If these executives had the thoughts ascribed, and insisted on a contract to secure their future, then they were, in normal circumstances, stupid. In normal circumstances, these employees must have considered what would happen if AIG went into bankruptcy. These employment contracts and payments would be part of a huge pile of unsecured creditors, expecting to be paid nothing at all.

It looks to me very likely that these contracts could have been considered only on the basis of a bailout being the most likely outcome. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122215-market-is-entering-rough-waters?source=feed#comment-401032 401032
There just has to be a resolution to the bank/insurance crisis. We have to believe that all the bad news is out, and especially from now on, no more rabbits in the hat. Unfortunately, some commentators, such as Rubini, are clearly indicating continuation of bad news.

So, no substantive uptick for many months yet.]]> Tue, 24 Feb 2009 06:04:47 -0500
There just has to be a resolution to the bank/insurance crisis. We have to believe that all the bad news is out, and especially from now on, no more rabbits in the hat. Unfortunately, some commentators, such as Rubini, are clearly indicating continuation of bad news.

So, no substantive uptick for many months yet.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119659-sorkin-s-questions-to-bank-ceos-answered?source=feed#comment-383328 383328
So what to do? let the employees have a substantive say. They are the ones who see the true worth of the CEO's contribution.]]> Wed, 11 Feb 2009 00:19:10 -0500
So what to do? let the employees have a substantive say. They are the ones who see the true worth of the CEO's contribution.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/118975-best-time-ever-to-trade-options-leads-to-lower-volume?source=feed#comment-378797 378797 Fri, 06 Feb 2009 16:00:32 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/118975-best-time-ever-to-trade-options-leads-to-lower-volume?source=feed#comment-377973 377973
I haven't investigated this myself, but it is likely that call and put backspreads which capitalise on fast up or down moves with limited downside would yield the best results.]]> Fri, 06 Feb 2009 06:35:35 -0500
I haven't investigated this myself, but it is likely that call and put backspreads which capitalise on fast up or down moves with limited downside would yield the best results.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116784-twenty-two-years-of-job-creation-wiped-out-in-a-single-day?source=feed#comment-367961 367961
Dont forget, Europeans could always escape to the USA for a better opportunity. Where are you going to go?]]> Tue, 27 Jan 2009 15:36:34 -0500
Dont forget, Europeans could always escape to the USA for a better opportunity. Where are you going to go?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111175-oil-majors-should-just-buy-real-gold?source=feed#comment-332518 332518
As a shareholder in an oil company, I would be horrified if management were to start trading in gold on the basis described. In fact that of itself would be an extreme breach of management duty to shareholders, which is to produce oil. Look at Metallgaslshaft if you want to see what happens when management starts to consider fiddling in commodity markets.

As to ratio of commodity prices, I'm just passing on some personal history. When I started resources analysis, it was suggested that we could look at various ratios. But it was pointed out to me that a mining company just has to be aware of supply issues in particular, and on reflection that is the most important issue in project planning. Thats why they spend so much time estimating industry cost curves and why they are obsessed with production costs. They learned long ago that basing mine planning on price forecasting is a waste of time.]]> Wed, 17 Dec 2008 18:02:16 -0500
As a shareholder in an oil company, I would be horrified if management were to start trading in gold on the basis described. In fact that of itself would be an extreme breach of management duty to shareholders, which is to produce oil. Look at Metallgaslshaft if you want to see what happens when management starts to consider fiddling in commodity markets.

As to ratio of commodity prices, I'm just passing on some personal history. When I started resources analysis, it was suggested that we could look at various ratios. But it was pointed out to me that a mining company just has to be aware of supply issues in particular, and on reflection that is the most important issue in project planning. Thats why they spend so much time estimating industry cost curves and why they are obsessed with production costs. They learned long ago that basing mine planning on price forecasting is a waste of time.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111175-oil-majors-should-just-buy-real-gold?source=feed#comment-332429 332429
How anyone reconciles the effect of supply/demand on prices, and then refers to such ratio analysis is beyond me. My pet question refers to the 3 Magi and Christmas (appropriately enough). The three gifts were gold, frankincense and mir (sorry if the spelling is wrong). The question is, what was the ratio of gold to oil in those days, and by extrapolation, what is the long term ratio of oil to frankincense ?

No answer, usually (most times because no-one even knows what the other two substances are, much less why they were deemed to be comparably as valuable as gold).]]> Wed, 17 Dec 2008 16:20:15 -0500
How anyone reconciles the effect of supply/demand on prices, and then refers to such ratio analysis is beyond me. My pet question refers to the 3 Magi and Christmas (appropriately enough). The three gifts were gold, frankincense and mir (sorry if the spelling is wrong). The question is, what was the ratio of gold to oil in those days, and by extrapolation, what is the long term ratio of oil to frankincense ?

No answer, usually (most times because no-one even knows what the other two substances are, much less why they were deemed to be comparably as valuable as gold).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/107989-the-more-things-change?source=feed#comment-315050 315050
I can, with a bit of luck, look after myself in the current environment. But if we go to 10% inflation as in the 70's, stock market values will plunge even further, no dividends will keep up and I start to eat my capital. Well I can tell you that I will line up for government "assistance " really quickly long before I really need it. And why not, its government policy that makes me do it.]]> Tue, 25 Nov 2008 17:58:08 -0500
I can, with a bit of luck, look after myself in the current environment. But if we go to 10% inflation as in the 70's, stock market values will plunge even further, no dividends will keep up and I start to eat my capital. Well I can tell you that I will line up for government "assistance " really quickly long before I really need it. And why not, its government policy that makes me do it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105706-how-low-can-they-go?source=feed#comment-304738 304738 Thu, 13 Nov 2008 00:13:03 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/102191-did-the-end-of-the-investment-banks-cause-the-latest-sell-off?source=feed#comment-292110 292110
Given the huge amount of damage to people's retirement savings, plus the loss of confidence, should we not expect an authority to ask, "are you Prime Broker, reducing your exposure to your hedge fund clients, causing them to sell equities in a disorderly market, and by how much". And should we not expect an answer "Yes sir, by $XXX Billion".

Why on earth is the explanation of this event being left to conjecture?]]> Mon, 27 Oct 2008 23:19:17 -0400
Given the huge amount of damage to people's retirement savings, plus the loss of confidence, should we not expect an authority to ask, "are you Prime Broker, reducing your exposure to your hedge fund clients, causing them to sell equities in a disorderly market, and by how much". And should we not expect an answer "Yes sir, by $XXX Billion".

Why on earth is the explanation of this event being left to conjecture?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100510-more-tarnish-on-the-greenspan-legacy?source=feed#comment-285055 285055
In it a sailor kills an albatross, and the crew of the ship were agreeable because the bird "bought the fog and mist". Later the crew turns against the sailor because, now becalmed, the bird "made the breeze to blow".

So it appears with Greenspan. In all those years of garbage spoken, no-one, it appears, challenged it. Instead an industry arose purporting to decipher it. As house prices rose, everyone owning a house was happy, in fact it was THE item of conversation, and never was heard a word condemning the fact that generationally, house ownership was fading for most who were born after 1980.

Now we hear about how stupid the whole episode was. And what do we want to see, well I guess number one is house prices recovering. That even more stupid. In this period I recall Stephen Roach, Robert Schiller and Nariel Roubini as some of very few who came out publicly to decry the whole asset bubble phenomenon.

And now "The Rhyme of the Ancient Mariner", written a hundred years ago, predicts the outcome. Hang the albatross around Greenspans' neck.

No way, it should hang on millions of necks.]]> Sat, 18 Oct 2008 00:58:40 -0400
In it a sailor kills an albatross, and the crew of the ship were agreeable because the bird "bought the fog and mist". Later the crew turns against the sailor because, now becalmed, the bird "made the breeze to blow".

So it appears with Greenspan. In all those years of garbage spoken, no-one, it appears, challenged it. Instead an industry arose purporting to decipher it. As house prices rose, everyone owning a house was happy, in fact it was THE item of conversation, and never was heard a word condemning the fact that generationally, house ownership was fading for most who were born after 1980.

Now we hear about how stupid the whole episode was. And what do we want to see, well I guess number one is house prices recovering. That even more stupid. In this period I recall Stephen Roach, Robert Schiller and Nariel Roubini as some of very few who came out publicly to decry the whole asset bubble phenomenon.

And now "The Rhyme of the Ancient Mariner", written a hundred years ago, predicts the outcome. Hang the albatross around Greenspans' neck.

No way, it should hang on millions of necks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92269-witnessing-the-biggest-transfer-of-wealth-in-history?source=feed#comment-238956 238956
But even more so, I am shocked at the downmarket tone of so many contributors.]]> Mon, 25 Aug 2008 22:35:47 -0400
But even more so, I am shocked at the downmarket tone of so many contributors.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90399-the-price-of-oil-cramer-s-mad-money-8-18-08?source=feed#comment-234310 234310
Sometimes I do a trade and immediately get the feeling it was wrong, and it stays that way. On that basis it feels like I also am flip flopping for myself, but once you get uncomfortable with a position, its best to liquidate.]]> Tue, 19 Aug 2008 18:44:14 -0400
Sometimes I do a trade and immediately get the feeling it was wrong, and it stays that way. On that basis it feels like I also am flip flopping for myself, but once you get uncomfortable with a position, its best to liquidate.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91453-options-as-a-gold-en-opportunity?source=feed#comment-234270 234270
Why make a hedged trade? I would say in this market, it makes a lot of sense. It is so easy to miss a directional move.]]> Tue, 19 Aug 2008 17:31:43 -0400
Why make a hedged trade? I would say in this market, it makes a lot of sense. It is so easy to miss a directional move.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90814-the-downside-of-momentum-based-investing?source=feed#comment-229697 229697
Its a tough world. Had I valued these stocks using normal metrics and listening to broker advice, I would never have bought them. They were always too expensive. But as each day passed, earnings were upgraded and upgraded again until somehow it appeared that the market was the lead indicator and the analysts were just catching up to the true story.

At some point in time, the implied growth rate in the valuation seemed too much, and maybe at that time, the tables turned.

If I have a secret to share, its that I scan the index for these opportunities and I invest in them on a portfolio basis, not as individual picks, nor on the advice of Cramer. So I was lucky (maybe skillful) that my momentum analysis found them early. I must say, I don't know what to do now.]]> Wed, 13 Aug 2008 16:24:32 -0400
Its a tough world. Had I valued these stocks using normal metrics and listening to broker advice, I would never have bought them. They were always too expensive. But as each day passed, earnings were upgraded and upgraded again until somehow it appeared that the market was the lead indicator and the analysts were just catching up to the true story.

At some point in time, the implied growth rate in the valuation seemed too much, and maybe at that time, the tables turned.

If I have a secret to share, its that I scan the index for these opportunities and I invest in them on a portfolio basis, not as individual picks, nor on the advice of Cramer. So I was lucky (maybe skillful) that my momentum analysis found them early. I must say, I don't know what to do now.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89447-commodities-on-the-downhill-slope?source=feed#comment-224688 224688
The other thing is the psychology of seeing stocks fall 10% in one day and recover 6% the next day. It is very very hard to maintain investment discipline while moves of this magnitude occur on a regular basis, and I would rather have my mind (and pocket) free of the distraction.]]> Thu, 07 Aug 2008 03:19:47 -0400
The other thing is the psychology of seeing stocks fall 10% in one day and recover 6% the next day. It is very very hard to maintain investment discipline while moves of this magnitude occur on a regular basis, and I would rather have my mind (and pocket) free of the distraction.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88463-house-prices-falling-in-australia-housing-tracker?source=feed#comment-220835 220835
Iansingman finds it hard to believe the prices quoted, but its true. In fact I would say he would be hard pressed to buy a 600sq m block of land in the capital cities for less than $300,000. Years ago, one might consider moving to some far flung town to get cheaper housing. I have recently returned from a holiday to Alice Springs, which is pretty far flung, and the cost of housing there easily meets $700,000. Australia is not cheap anymore.]]> Sat, 02 Aug 2008 01:51:48 -0400
Iansingman finds it hard to believe the prices quoted, but its true. In fact I would say he would be hard pressed to buy a 600sq m block of land in the capital cities for less than $300,000. Years ago, one might consider moving to some far flung town to get cheaper housing. I have recently returned from a holiday to Alice Springs, which is pretty far flung, and the cost of housing there easily meets $700,000. Australia is not cheap anymore.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88463-house-prices-falling-in-australia-housing-tracker?source=feed#comment-219851 219851
The housing market in Australia is an outcome of the worst possible government inaction, where demand is being stimulated and supply is artificially reduced. Why, I don't know, but the net of it is that a median house is now 10 times median salary, and there is no pressure for that to reduce. None at all.

]]> Fri, 01 Aug 2008 01:29:25 -0400
The housing market in Australia is an outcome of the worst possible government inaction, where demand is being stimulated and supply is artificially reduced. Why, I don't know, but the net of it is that a median house is now 10 times median salary, and there is no pressure for that to reduce. None at all.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86784-news-flash-major-market-turns-aren-t-announced-in-advance?source=feed#comment-213789 213789
Following this I decided that fundamental analysis and valuation is very limited in finding good and timely investment ideas. I developed a quant based system based on risk/reward analysis and now I have no trouble spotting interesting companies, and I invest when the signal says so and justify it later.

To date this signal says no the the banks, but I am with Tom. When the signal says go, then despite any other analysis, I will go.]]> Thu, 24 Jul 2008 17:47:16 -0400
Following this I decided that fundamental analysis and valuation is very limited in finding good and timely investment ideas. I developed a quant based system based on risk/reward analysis and now I have no trouble spotting interesting companies, and I invest when the signal says so and justify it later.

To date this signal says no the the banks, but I am with Tom. When the signal says go, then despite any other analysis, I will go.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85424-lufkin-industries-up-as-oil-prices-surge?source=feed#comment-213017 213017
I run the data on all companies in an index, so I don't know what the market thinks of it. Then again, listening to the market chatter is more likely to hinder a decision to invest rather than to assist.

It will be in my portfolio today, and I'm sorry I didn't find it sooner.]]> Thu, 24 Jul 2008 06:18:43 -0400
I run the data on all companies in an index, so I don't know what the market thinks of it. Then again, listening to the market chatter is more likely to hinder a decision to invest rather than to assist.

It will be in my portfolio today, and I'm sorry I didn't find it sooner.]]>