ANTS

News Flash: Major Market Turns Aren't Announced In Advance

Tom makes a good point that has always puzzled me. While his example is current and topical the theme is universal. In my time as a portfolio manager, I would notice unexpected price moves, ring any number of analysts to find out what was going on, only to be told they didn't know. Then I would ring the company, and they say nothing, then I would talk to other industry people and they were non the wiser. No one appears to know except the market, but who is the market?

Following this I decided that fundamental analysis and valuation is very limited in finding good and timely investment ideas. I developed a quant based system based on risk/reward analysis and now I have no trouble spotting interesting companies, and I invest when the signal says so and justify it later.

To date this signal says no the the banks, but I am with Tom. When the signal says go, then despite any other analysis, I will go.