hanson001

This Recession Ain’t Over

Great article and comments. Before working for the BLS for five years in consumer prices-CPI, I had all the concerns pointed out in this post and comments. Part of the problem with government numbers is that they become too complex over time.

Check out how many changes has been made to the CPI over the years. For instance, how can one measure the substitution effect, which is now a factor, to produce inflation numbers anyone would believe? All these "political changes" are screwing up what was once a great tool of measuring inflation. But changes also take place on the collection end of this data.

It's all way too complex for any reasonable person to collect. It's easy enough to collect data in a grocery. But try collecting price data from hospitals, repair shops, lawyers, and car dealerships, for example, and you run into a less than honest respondent on top of very complex data. Think about that real hard my gentle reader.

Add to this the way that government promotes people and you end up with management that wants everything perfect, but doesn't want to hear about how the data might not be correct. Do not ask and do not tell. Just like the teachers unions, they have to protect their secure income flow environment. And like our nation's policies, "leave it to the next generation to figure out."

Can not trust a damn thing anymore! Welcome to the new normal.