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    • Fri Nov 14th 14:59 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Don't Let Bulk Shippers Sink Your Portfolio... For Now

      Shipbroker:

      Plese keep writing. Your comments and ideas on shippers to study are most helpful

      On Nov 11 07:38 PM Shipbroker wrote:

      > In the eyes of a professional, anyone who talks about "Shippers"
      > do not know what they are talking about. Folks who own ships are
      > shipowners. Shippers are the people who ship cargo on the ship.
      >
      >
      > The BDI is a wonderful thing but it is only a record. It is not something
      > that professionals hang their hat on. Rather they are amused at how
      > investor types have fallen in love with newly found index. It is
      > meaningless, it only tells me what the competition got for his wares
      > yesterday and how much I should ask for today.
      >
      > The things that matter in shipping are the volumes of cargo being
      > shipped, the distance the cargo has to go (Ton/Mile) and how many
      > ships are available to do this.
      >
      > In the mid 90's it was common knowledge in the business that there
      > would be a shortage of ships, especially bulk carriers, because the
      > fleet was old. According to the BDI, the sages were right, because
      > the BDI went to absurb levels.
      >
      > Although we are at this moment in a period of lower than normal cargo
      > amounts, this is not important. Tomorrow is another day. What pros
      > are looking at is the age of the fleet and the addition of new ships
      > coming in. There is great fear that there will be too many ships.
      >
      >
      > Now mind you, as much as shipowners like to tell you they are experts
      > at transporting cargo, they are really just as much, if not more,
      > investors. Ships being the object. Right now they are adding and
      > subttracting number of ships in the future and speculating wildly
      > how large the fleet will end up being.
      >
      > As for cargo being shipped, one must remember that the world's ports
      > and mines etc are running close to full capacity. So any major increase
      > in cargo is not expected. What is expected is that trade will pick
      > up because the credit crunch is temporary, the world is developing
      > and the appetite for goods is still there, so this will get back
      > to normal in less than a year.
      >
      > If in the next 4 years, every ship over 20-22 years of age gets scrapped,
      > the fleet's carrying capacity will remain the same when the last
      > ship currently on order is delivered in the summer of 2012.
      >
      > 18-22 years is normally considered the life span of a ship because
      > after that, the investment in repairs/maintenance will not be worth
      > it. That of course is a function of how much can be earned in the
      > market. So, high BDI, more old ships, low BDI less old ships. <br/>
      >
      > Although, I have started myself picking out shipping stocks because
      > there are great opportunities. But only carefully. Picks are based
      > on my knowledge of the companies and how strong they really are.
      > Do not let 3rd quarters fool you. Wait for the 4th quarter results
      > to roll in, then see what happens.
      >
      > My shipping portfolio includes SSW and RCKMF because of their business
      > plan. It includes TK and TNK but not FRO and NAT, because FRO and
      > NAT are in the VLCC sector, whereas TK and TNK are in the much more
      > stable Suezmax and Aframax sectors of the tank market.
      >
      > On the bulker side I am waiting for 4Q results. DRYS is out. Mr.
      > Economou unloaded a Caper from his own company, Cardiff, to DRYS
      > and thus onloaded a white elephant on his stock holders. - SB is
      > a candidate because of their long terms contracts but only after
      > I see 4Q freight marklet development and how their contract partners
      > are faring.
      >
      > SEA (Mutual Fund) is fairly well balanced in the various sectors
      > and it couid very well be agood time to buy them.
      >
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      View article »
    • Sun Jul 6th 03:41 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Assurant Is A Compelling Short Sell
      What is the stop loss? When do you cover because the trade goes against you?
      View article »
    • Sun May 25th 03:32 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The White Elephant That Could Destroy Your Portfolio, Part I
      Mr. Summers: You say, "In fact, if you measured inflation today as you did when Volcker was Fed Chairman, you’d find inflation was in the double-digits." You supply a chart, but do not identify the different methods. Please supply the different methods so we can evaluate for ourselves. By the way one method "pre 1983" indicates one of the changes was made during the Volker Chairmanship. So since the article lauds him, was the change for the better or worse, whatever it was? Again please identify the methods and sources for the data used in the chart.
      View article »
    • Tue Apr 22nd 17:29 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      CALM Longs Walking on Eggshells
      Mr. Peavy (April 20, 12:51 comment), Please provide your source for statement CALM is projecting $6.00 for next quarter. I have not seen or heard of that. Its not in their ernings release for last quarter.
      View article »
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