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M. Pettis
67 Comments
Can China Take Up Consumption Slack From the U.S.?
In other words the PBoC had to borrow RMB to buy the reserves, and some people think the rise in the value of RMB liabilities may have already wiped out the PBoC's capital cushion. Giving the government reserves as a 'gift' is no different than having the MoF borrow the money domestically, with the difference being that it would result in a rise in PBoC domestic liabilities rather than MoF domestic liabilities.
China: Expectations for Fiscal Expansion a Little Hasty
How the US Slowdown Is Slowing Down China
One of the side-effects of globalization has been the seeming paradox that each country's exports to the US has declined as a share of total exports even while US imports are growing as a share of world GDP. The first fact seems to indicate that the world is becoming less dependent on the US consumer while the second suggests that the world is more dependent on the US.
I would argue that the latter is true, and increased trade specialization explains the former fact. If the US slows down, and espcially if there is a sympathetic slow down in Europe, I have little doubt that developing coutnries, especially those reliant on exports, are going to be seriously affected.
As an aside, Paultaut, we will need to see September and October figures before we can be confident that internal consumption can take up the slack. I suspect much of the July/August surge was Olympics related.
China: Holiday Thoughts on Misunderstanding Data
And AWJ, I am not disparaging young people from elite colleges (nor are all my young friends from elite colleges -- I actually deal with a pretty wide group of people here). At Beida, Tsinghua, Renda, Zheda, Fudan and several of the other elite schools at which I taught and lectured I have met lots of very impressive students who have a great deal of idealism and are eager to see Chinese advance in a wide variety of areas, but there is no point assuming that elite students have any more objective view than students from what you unfairly call the "trash" schools. In fact Beida students know that, one way or the otjher, their prospects for advancing in China or going abroad (and all six of the people I spoke to Sunday night said they would not hesitate for a second to emigrate if they could, but it was too difficult for them to do so) are fairly good, and this cannot help but affect their feelings and observations.
By the way I agree with your dismay about Bjork's silly and self-interested behavior. If you are Modern Sky come see me at the Maybe Mars booth, where i spend a lot of time.
The second part of my peice was, I guess, a warning about my own perspectives. I am no more objective than anyone else, but my many years experience in other developing countries leaves me very wary of the claim that economic processes are different in China. I think we need to look at data in China and understand that even when the data is right, it can give us a view that is the opposite of reality because the system has so many moving parts and they react in sometimes contradictory ways to each other.
China: A Run on the Bank of East Asia
Portable, I agree with you completely. Adding gasoline to speculative trading strategies in a market that is already completely dominated by speculation is not a good idea. Expect to see more, not less, volatility.
No Rest for the Chinese Stock Market
By the way your IP numbers obviously haven't been deflated by PPI or you would have had a different view. As for consumer demand, I have always said July and August growth was high but this may because of the Olypmpics. We must wait and see. I suggest, again, that we wait and see.
How Susceptible is China to the Global Crisis?
Amd yes, the melatonin seems to work. My trip back was a lot easier.
How Susceptible is China to the Global Crisis?
On the comparison with the US, real estate development and investment is at least as important to the Chinese economy (and probably more) than it is to the US economy. Since the US was driven into crisis by problems in the real estate market, I don't think we should be comfortable that Chinese banks, even if their exposre were lower, are safe. At any rate given that nearly all financing comes from the banking sysytem, it suggests to me that directly and indirectly a decline in real estate may be far more damaging for Chinese banks. By the way bankers often tell me in confidence that real estate expositre in the banks is much gretaer than simply the loans listed as real estate loans. A lot of borrowers are little more than real-estate shells.
China Still Needs Revaluation, but How Much?
China: Post Olympic Slowdown
China: Olympic Fever and the Market
China: Real Estate Loan Growth May Be Slowing
I don't really have specific recommendations on stocks. I usually try to get a diversified portfolio of B-shares when I invest, but right now I am in cash and will remain for a while longer.
China: Olympic Fever and the Market
China: Real Estate Loan Growth May Be Slowing
China: PPI Inflation and Trade Surplus Higher Than Expected