HeF's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/153742/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/164723-the-imf-warns-about-surplus-countries-global-imbalances?source=feed#comment-706547 706547 Wed, 07 Oct 2009 07:16:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/164723-the-imf-warns-about-surplus-countries-global-imbalances?source=feed#comment-706545 706545 Wed, 07 Oct 2009 07:14:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/155182-what-should-have-been-discussed-during-the-sed-meetings-part-ii?source=feed#comment-626481 626481 Wed, 12 Aug 2009 10:00:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147666-china-explosion-in-new-lending?source=feed#comment-581834 581834
Stonefox, car sales were up big time, revenues were actually down, and profits way down. That is a little surprising.

Kappa, there were as you point out credit growth constraints in late 2007 and 2008 but the growth was still quite high (over 16%), it was off a very high base, and the credit constraints were undermined by an explosion in off-balance-sheet lending and what most believe to be a huge expansion in the informal banking sector, which may account for as much as 20-30% of all loans. But even ignoring all that, tripling the rate of loan growth in a six month period is still worrying, and when three of the last six months have the highest loan growth by far in Chinese history, that suggests rapid loan growth. There is no six-month period in Chinese history in which net new lending comes close to 1009 H1.

By the way loan maturities are on average more than one year and anyway these numbers are net new loans, not total loans.]]> Fri, 10 Jul 2009 07:22:25 -0400
Stonefox, car sales were up big time, revenues were actually down, and profits way down. That is a little surprising.

Kappa, there were as you point out credit growth constraints in late 2007 and 2008 but the growth was still quite high (over 16%), it was off a very high base, and the credit constraints were undermined by an explosion in off-balance-sheet lending and what most believe to be a huge expansion in the informal banking sector, which may account for as much as 20-30% of all loans. But even ignoring all that, tripling the rate of loan growth in a six month period is still worrying, and when three of the last six months have the highest loan growth by far in Chinese history, that suggests rapid loan growth. There is no six-month period in Chinese history in which net new lending comes close to 1009 H1.

By the way loan maturities are on average more than one year and anyway these numbers are net new loans, not total loans.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/143259-china-debt-is-up-trade-is-down?source=feed#comment-551564 551564 Thu, 18 Jun 2009 06:11:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108379-should-china-raise-wages?source=feed#comment-317962 317962 Mon, 01 Dec 2008 02:54:12 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108270-is-there-more-trouble-brewing-in-china?source=feed#comment-316526 316526 ]]> Fri, 28 Nov 2008 05:28:48 -0500 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108269-china-will-the-rate-cut-by-the-pboc-make-things-better?source=feed#comment-316525 316525 Fri, 28 Nov 2008 05:28:37 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/106253-would-a-trade-war-help-solve-the-problem-of-excess-capacity?source=feed#comment-311398 311398
JWG, the dollar against what? My guess is that in the medium term the dollar risies aginst the euro. It should decline against the RMB, but the timing of that decline has a lot to do with PBoC policy.]]> Fri, 21 Nov 2008 00:57:30 -0500
JWG, the dollar against what? My guess is that in the medium term the dollar risies aginst the euro. It should decline against the RMB, but the timing of that decline has a lot to do with PBoC policy.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104983-can-china-take-up-consumption-slack-from-the-u-s?source=feed#comment-302767 302767
In other words the PBoC had to borrow RMB to buy the reserves, and some people think the rise in the value of RMB liabilities may have already wiped out the PBoC's capital cushion. Giving the government reserves as a 'gift' is no different than having the MoF borrow the money domestically, with the difference being that it would result in a rise in PBoC domestic liabilities rather than MoF domestic liabilities. ]]> Tue, 11 Nov 2008 07:12:37 -0500
In other words the PBoC had to borrow RMB to buy the reserves, and some people think the rise in the value of RMB liabilities may have already wiped out the PBoC's capital cushion. Giving the government reserves as a 'gift' is no different than having the MoF borrow the money domestically, with the difference being that it would result in a rise in PBoC domestic liabilities rather than MoF domestic liabilities. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98879-china-expectations-for-fiscal-expansion-a-little-hasty?source=feed#comment-277551 277551 Thu, 09 Oct 2008 07:01:36 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/98490-how-the-us-slowdown-is-slowing-down-china?source=feed#comment-275376 275376
One of the side-effects of globalization has been the seeming paradox that each country's exports to the US has declined as a share of total exports even while US imports are growing as a share of world GDP. The first fact seems to indicate that the world is becoming less dependent on the US consumer while the second suggests that the world is more dependent on the US.

I would argue that the latter is true, and increased trade specialization explains the former fact. If the US slows down, and espcially if there is a sympathetic slow down in Europe, I have little doubt that developing coutnries, especially those reliant on exports, are going to be seriously affected.

As an aside, Paultaut, we will need to see September and October figures before we can be confident that internal consumption can take up the slack. I suspect much of the July/August surge was Olympics related.]]> Tue, 07 Oct 2008 01:42:18 -0400
One of the side-effects of globalization has been the seeming paradox that each country's exports to the US has declined as a share of total exports even while US imports are growing as a share of world GDP. The first fact seems to indicate that the world is becoming less dependent on the US consumer while the second suggests that the world is more dependent on the US.

I would argue that the latter is true, and increased trade specialization explains the former fact. If the US slows down, and espcially if there is a sympathetic slow down in Europe, I have little doubt that developing coutnries, especially those reliant on exports, are going to be seriously affected.

As an aside, Paultaut, we will need to see September and October figures before we can be confident that internal consumption can take up the slack. I suspect much of the July/August surge was Olympics related.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97869-china-holiday-thoughts-on-misunderstanding-data?source=feed#comment-270200 270200
And AWJ, I am not disparaging young people from elite colleges (nor are all my young friends from elite colleges -- I actually deal with a pretty wide group of people here). At Beida, Tsinghua, Renda, Zheda, Fudan and several of the other elite schools at which I taught and lectured I have met lots of very impressive students who have a great deal of idealism and are eager to see Chinese advance in a wide variety of areas, but there is no point assuming that elite students have any more objective view than students from what you unfairly call the "trash" schools. In fact Beida students know that, one way or the otjher, their prospects for advancing in China or going abroad (and all six of the people I spoke to Sunday night said they would not hesitate for a second to emigrate if they could, but it was too difficult for them to do so) are fairly good, and this cannot help but affect their feelings and observations.

By the way I agree with your dismay about Bjork's silly and self-interested behavior. If you are Modern Sky come see me at the Maybe Mars booth, where i spend a lot of time.

The second part of my peice was, I guess, a warning about my own perspectives. I am no more objective than anyone else, but my many years experience in other developing countries leaves me very wary of the claim that economic processes are different in China. I think we need to look at data in China and understand that even when the data is right, it can give us a view that is the opposite of reality because the system has so many moving parts and they react in sometimes contradictory ways to each other.]]> Wed, 01 Oct 2008 02:48:57 -0400
And AWJ, I am not disparaging young people from elite colleges (nor are all my young friends from elite colleges -- I actually deal with a pretty wide group of people here). At Beida, Tsinghua, Renda, Zheda, Fudan and several of the other elite schools at which I taught and lectured I have met lots of very impressive students who have a great deal of idealism and are eager to see Chinese advance in a wide variety of areas, but there is no point assuming that elite students have any more objective view than students from what you unfairly call the "trash" schools. In fact Beida students know that, one way or the otjher, their prospects for advancing in China or going abroad (and all six of the people I spoke to Sunday night said they would not hesitate for a second to emigrate if they could, but it was too difficult for them to do so) are fairly good, and this cannot help but affect their feelings and observations.

By the way I agree with your dismay about Bjork's silly and self-interested behavior. If you are Modern Sky come see me at the Maybe Mars booth, where i spend a lot of time.

The second part of my peice was, I guess, a warning about my own perspectives. I am no more objective than anyone else, but my many years experience in other developing countries leaves me very wary of the claim that economic processes are different in China. I think we need to look at data in China and understand that even when the data is right, it can give us a view that is the opposite of reality because the system has so many moving parts and they react in sometimes contradictory ways to each other.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97368-china-a-run-on-the-bank-of-east-asia?source=feed#comment-266662 266662
Portable, I agree with you completely. Adding gasoline to speculative trading strategies in a market that is already completely dominated by speculation is not a good idea. Expect to see more, not less, volatility.]]> Sat, 27 Sep 2008 05:03:05 -0400
Portable, I agree with you completely. Adding gasoline to speculative trading strategies in a market that is already completely dominated by speculation is not a good idea. Expect to see more, not less, volatility.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95388-no-rest-for-the-chinese-stock-market?source=feed#comment-258764 258764
By the way your IP numbers obviously haven't been deflated by PPI or you would have had a different view. As for consumer demand, I have always said July and August growth was high but this may because of the Olypmpics. We must wait and see. I suggest, again, that we wait and see.]]> Fri, 19 Sep 2008 07:43:31 -0400
By the way your IP numbers obviously haven't been deflated by PPI or you would have had a different view. As for consumer demand, I have always said July and August growth was high but this may because of the Olypmpics. We must wait and see. I suggest, again, that we wait and see.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96135-how-susceptible-is-china-to-the-global-crisis?source=feed#comment-258752 258752
Amd yes, the melatonin seems to work. My trip back was a lot easier.]]> Fri, 19 Sep 2008 07:28:05 -0400
Amd yes, the melatonin seems to work. My trip back was a lot easier.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96135-how-susceptible-is-china-to-the-global-crisis?source=feed#comment-258750 258750
On the comparison with the US, real estate development and investment is at least as important to the Chinese economy (and probably more) than it is to the US economy. Since the US was driven into crisis by problems in the real estate market, I don't think we should be comfortable that Chinese banks, even if their exposre were lower, are safe. At any rate given that nearly all financing comes from the banking sysytem, it suggests to me that directly and indirectly a decline in real estate may be far more damaging for Chinese banks. By the way bankers often tell me in confidence that real estate expositre in the banks is much gretaer than simply the loans listed as real estate loans. A lot of borrowers are little more than real-estate shells.]]> Fri, 19 Sep 2008 07:26:03 -0400
On the comparison with the US, real estate development and investment is at least as important to the Chinese economy (and probably more) than it is to the US economy. Since the US was driven into crisis by problems in the real estate market, I don't think we should be comfortable that Chinese banks, even if their exposre were lower, are safe. At any rate given that nearly all financing comes from the banking sysytem, it suggests to me that directly and indirectly a decline in real estate may be far more damaging for Chinese banks. By the way bankers often tell me in confidence that real estate expositre in the banks is much gretaer than simply the loans listed as real estate loans. A lot of borrowers are little more than real-estate shells.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93597-china-still-needs-revaluation-but-how-much?source=feed#comment-244270 244270 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 03:01:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93099-china-post-olympic-slowdown?source=feed#comment-243004 243004 Mon, 01 Sep 2008 07:54:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/91865-china-olympic-fever-and-the-market?source=feed#comment-236226 236226 Fri, 22 Aug 2008 06:42:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/91441-china-real-estate-loan-growth-may-be-slowing?source=feed#comment-235440 235440
I don't really have specific recommendations on stocks. I usually try to get a diversified portfolio of B-shares when I invest, but right now I am in cash and will remain for a while longer.
]]> Thu, 21 Aug 2008 08:14:19 -0400
I don't really have specific recommendations on stocks. I usually try to get a diversified portfolio of B-shares when I invest, but right now I am in cash and will remain for a while longer.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91865-china-olympic-fever-and-the-market?source=feed#comment-235436 235436 Thu, 21 Aug 2008 08:09:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/91441-china-real-estate-loan-growth-may-be-slowing?source=feed#comment-233766 233766 Tue, 19 Aug 2008 06:26:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/90332-china-ppi-inflation-and-trade-surplus-higher-than-expected?source=feed#comment-228430 228430 Tue, 12 Aug 2008 06:25:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/90196-olympic-excitement-doesn-t-impress-china-s-market?source=feed#comment-227514 227514 Mon, 11 Aug 2008 05:41:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/88567-people-s-bank-of-china-relaxes-lending-caps?source=feed#comment-224792 224792
Sorry JtB, but I don't post my stuff directly here and I don't know how the affect the font.]]> Thu, 07 Aug 2008 08:17:24 -0400
Sorry JtB, but I don't post my stuff directly here and I don't know how the affect the font.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88908-underground-lending-in-china-exceeds-rmb-10-trillion?source=feed#comment-224791 224791 Thu, 07 Aug 2008 08:14:05 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/89144-will-china-development-bank-buy-dresdner?source=feed#comment-224788 224788 Thu, 07 Aug 2008 08:12:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/87389-people-s-bank-of-china-falls-in-line?source=feed#comment-219017 219017 Thu, 31 Jul 2008 04:32:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/86185-china-american-style-vs-latin-american-style-crises?source=feed#comment-213013 213013 Thu, 24 Jul 2008 06:11:45 -0400