billydlight

More Disappointing Retail Sales

I see Tony Soprano hasn't been here yet. I had to give advice to a coworker who has just discovered that his nice, new, truck is running him $600 a month, 60/week on gas. He makes $10-12 an hour. His fridge is getting harder to fill. Hours are getting shorter at work. He had NO THOUGHT of buying a plasma TV or dishes or garden tools. Not now anyway. If food continues to climb people will garden just like granny did in the 30's and 40's. No one will buy his truck because he carried debt from his trade-in. I told him to drop the insurance on the truck and buy a bicycle with the saved cash...or...walk away from the truck. No, no upturn soon but hey, garden tools may spike! Isn't that bullish?

CFOs: Recession Has Already Started

Tony Soprano has probably never been lip-serviced about how good an employee he is before being dismissed at the end of the week. Later to see his old job in the paper after a "rebound" for less pay. Lol! 2001...so much fun! I worked tel-com sector. Was told, pushed and pamphleted that World Com was the wave of the future. I asked "WTF do they do and why a line layer should care?" They said, "Invest now! (Realtor:Buy Now!) They will build a trans-atlantic internet cable!" Knowing history, I laughed in his face. Where's the cable now? When 9/11 came they said, "Don't worry. It was in NY. Far, far away." I began looking for other work that day. I was ready when the pinkslip arrived.

5 Reasons the Fed's Credit Bailout Will Likely Disappoint

Oh, how it is irratating to hear positive spin. I am with you. I live in Montana and here the local paper has published only 2 articles about our local economy. 1: The bust will not effect us because we are immune to national problems. 2: If recession comes the county and cities are OK because people love Montana.
I ran numbers with a colleague today. We figured out what our actual "buying power" is. Housing, credit, commodities, the number is really small compared to what is currently "acceptable". We honestly don't know how people are making it. Prices must come down. The draw we are ensnared in is that we have lived thru recessions, wage freezes, stagflation and inflation. But, we haven't been in this perfect storm. If property crashes while food and fuel skyrocket(inflate) doesn't that make property more worthless? MY "bullish" recomendation is this...to deflate the dollar. From what I understand, that means more money must disappear. Write down it all. Crash the market. Foreclose the home and sell it to however buys it. Bankrupt the debtor. Eliminate the insolvent banks. Value is an ambiguous term. $1mil condo becomes $1k because that's all anyone will pay. New banks will emerge. Business will be more efficient. The dollar will become stronger because there is less of them. Big Credit Card can join Big Railroad in history. AAA will be AAA. It sucks, it risks world war but this is what happens with fiat currency. Otherwise war may still come, our crime rate will skyrocket, interest on nt'l debt will outpace soc. prgms and we go third world. At least those in hi power positions, CEO's, will still be rich either way right?

Could Citigroup Be Any More Dysfunctional?

This makes perfect business sense. When a company begins it has outstanding leadership. Then, as it ages, people are promoted that are not a "threat" to those higher up the ladder via flattery, etc. Productive employees are left under a glass ceiling. Why rock the boat by removing an expert loan officer through promotion? As middle managers are promoted, backed by good numbers from the productive self-starters, they begin to rot out the core management. They avoid "exposure" by promoting a patsy(take-one-for-the... underneath them. The "productive people have messy desks" theory comes into play also. Sadly, the "Office Space" parody reaches all areas of business from solid waste to coffee shops. This critical mass paves the way for opportunity and new companies. It is hard to say but more often than not, an honest work ethic leads you to a dead end.