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153972

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  • Seventy Seven Energy: An Undervalued Oilfield Service Spin-Off With The Potential To Provide Asymmetric Returns [View article]
    Achilles Research:

    I agree with much of your sentiment after reading SSE's earning release. I've yet to read their conference call transcript or hear it.

    The reason I am writing is within the body of the earnings report is a discussion about rigs. SSE mentioned adding four new rigs in their Tier 1 group, which as I recall were Peake....

    I've read that the reason for the overall market rig diminution beside cuts in cap ex is the older rigs are not as productive as the newer rigs that are coming online and therefore some of the older rigs are being replaced by the new models.

    With this in mind, what percentage of these newer rigs does SSE have in the field as percentage of all their rigs?
    Mar 3, 2015. 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rocket Fuel -20.9% on revenue miss, very weak guidance [View news story]
    IMO it is too late for FUEL to right the ship regarding advertisers. Criteo developed this relationship a long time ago so FUEL will have to play major catch up. And since Criteo customers are renewing and increasing their ad buying per next quarter's guidance, FUEL will need to provide program ad buying that surpasses Criteo.

    Criteo has over 4 quarters of beating revenues on guidance and earning a profit. With this in mind, FUEL has an uphill battle that thus far has shown that it can't win against Criteo.

    FUEL was growing significantly passed analysts' expectations until this quarter and are now forecasting less growth next quarter than last years revenue. IMO they are not a growth story anymore.

    I sold this morning all shares that I owned.
    Feb 20, 2015. 02:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rocket Fuel -20.9% on revenue miss, very weak guidance [View news story]
    Time for me to take losses in this stock and sell. They are guiding lower from year or year next quarter and they won't provide guidance for the full year. OUCH!

    Criteo just reported and beat on revenue increase percentage, turned a profit had better margins, than FUEL then provided a better FY '15 guidance than expectations.

    I have to agree with kevn1111. This stock is not growing anymore like it should.
    Feb 19, 2015. 06:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Devon Energy rises AH as operating revenue more than doubles [View news story]
    Since EOG reported a net income of over 400 million on a GAAP basis the point that I was making about DVN is that management is not as resourceful as they would like us to think. The products that DVN and EOG are the same and their respective oil, nat gas and NGLs volumes are in the same ballpark on a percentage basis of revenue.

    DVN is also reducing Cap Ex by 20% whereas EOG is reducing by 40%.

    All in all a bad report for DVN. That was my point.
    Feb 18, 2015. 06:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Devon Energy rises AH as operating revenue more than doubles [View news story]
    On a GAAP basis DVN lost over 400 million. I haven't drllled down why (no pun intended).
    Feb 17, 2015. 07:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Has A Once-In-A-Lifetime Opportunity To Reset Its Borrowing Costs [View article]
    Dallas,

    As some of the commenters have discussed, if the F bonds are not callable, why would a bond holder sell the bond back to F? Ford cannot force them to sell their bonds back to F.

    On the other hand if F provided an incentive, hence paid a premium, F would have to pay for most of the lost interest income for the life of the bond plus the current appreciation of the bond. I think it would be more expensive than just riding this if factoring in the the underwriting fees, prospectus, etc., costs.

    I would be interested in your thoughts regarding the financial impact on this buyout given that the bonds are not callable and what amount in savings you think F would accrue over the next ten and twenty years?
    Feb 12, 2015. 08:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Kinder Morgan A Buy Now For A Dividend Growth Investor? [View article]
    I find the author's graph about cash flow for 2015 to be down 48% to be very pessimistic. I'd be interested in reading how he arrived at this figure.
    Feb 9, 2015. 10:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Kinder Morgan A Buy Now For A Dividend Growth Investor? [View article]
    KMI has contracts but 100% fee and volume are not entirely based upon whether the E&P company lives up to its commitment. A significant majority is guaranteed but not all of it if the producer opts to cut back.

    I would not be concerned for 2015 since per the latest EIA report volumes are higher thus far in January and February and projected in March than they were last year.

    Also, see my below comment to richjoy403 below his comment to you regarding links supporting my 2015 confidence in KMI.
    Feb 9, 2015. 10:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Kinder Morgan A Buy Now For A Dividend Growth Investor? [View article]
    In last year's 10K KMI discusses hedging, tariffs, and transportation guarantees. It is not specific as to how much by percentage is guaranteed but it is mentioned that KMI's fees are mostly guaranteed by contracts for nat gas and oil that are not based on volumes per se but availability. I've pasted below the operative paragraph pertaining to nat gas contracts. The oil section is similar.

    "With respect to our interstate natural gas pipelines and related storage facilities, the revenues from these assets are primarily received under contracts with terms that are fixed for various and extended periods of time. To the extent practicable and economically feasible in light of our strategic plans and other factors, we generally attempt to mitigate risk of reduced volumes and prices by negotiating contracts with longer terms, with higher per-unit pricing and for a greater percentage of our available capacity. These long-term contracts are typically structured with a fixed-fee reserving the right to transport natural gas and specify that we receive the majority of our fee for making the capacity available, whether or not the customer actually chooses to utilize the capacity. Similarly, in KMP’s Texas Intrastate Natural Gas Group, it currently derives approximately 75% of its sales and transport margins from long-term transport and sales contracts that include requirements with minimum volume payment obligations. As contracts expire, we have additional exposure to the longer term trends in supply and demand for natural gas. As of December 31, 2012, the remaining average contract life of our combined natural gas transportation contracts (including intrastate pipelines’ purchase and sales contracts) was approximately seven years."

    I've also read that CO2 division is hedged @ $91 for 2015 and would not impact the dividend in 2015.

    http://bit.ly/1AL7t8X

    The nat gas storage, transportation, etc presentation in January provided significant insight of where KMI is at and where it plans to be in the out years.

    The contracts for nat gas are long term and per the presentation are more secure in 2016 as well as 2015 than 2014.

    I would also add that any expansion, therefore CAP EX to KMI pipelines are associated with the contracting E&P companies for that particular pipeline. In other words KMI does not build and hope they come. They already have firm contracts in place for the oil and gas before they start spending money.


    http://bit.ly/176Xmk4

    I would anticipate that KMI's upcoming 10K will have gobs of info related to nat gas pipeline, storage, etc as well as hedges, customers, etc.

    I am confident given the January presentation, recent earnings report, DCF and KMI reserves that the dividend is safe for 2015.

    In conclusion and this is a banal remark but market price appreciation is not guaranteed nor is the dividend or it's 10% increase for 2015.
    Feb 9, 2015. 10:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Might Not Be The Best Time To Buy VF Corp [View article]
    I bought today, 2/4 on the pullback due to the overreaction in the market to Ralph Lauren's poor quarter. VFC is one of the best apparel manufacturers in the world. Their supply chain is probably the best and their product mix is diversified. They may have the best apparel management team in the business.

    The author appears to be gauging for a misstep or relying upon analyst's expectations. Their net income from FY '11 to FY '13 improved 36.27%. Revenue over the same period improved almost 20%. They are on track to smash last year's holiday quarter based upon the Sept '14 quarter's performance. All other prior financial metrics are very good or outstanding.

    I agree that their PEG is over extended per the analysts but the analysts are projecting only 10% growth. I anticipate better growth over the next two years.
    Feb 4, 2015. 07:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: AT&T, Verizon will sue FCC immediately after reclassification [View news story]
    Because the FCC has the right to do so per various Congressional acts.

    http://fcc.us/1za5lCG
    Feb 4, 2015. 02:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: AT&T, Verizon will sue FCC immediately after reclassification [View news story]
    The VP of AT&T had to write what he wrote to differentiate their wireline phone, wireless systems from broadband. But broadband is a telecom service in the sense that FIOS and U-Verse offers wired phone service. Similarly broadband offers communication for voice, data and video. Doesn't wireless offer that as well?

    I think the AT&T VP is trying to do a Bill Clinton and parse words.
    Feb 4, 2015. 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney Looks Prudent In Shanghai Park Delay [View article]
    Mr. Young: How bad is the smog overall in Shanghai during the spring, summer and early fall where the Disney park is located? I don't anticipate DIS having the park open in the winter '17 after its spring '16 opening due to the the very cold conditions.

    I am dating myself but I can recall terrible smog in Disneyland in the late 1960s as a child. It was so bad that at times your eyes would water and you couldn't clearly read the Disneyland Hotel sign from the park. At that time, the Anaheim park was filled, parents and kids were having a great time, etc. It was also a different time regarding knowledge of the health effects of smog long term on children and adults.

    I am somewhat concerned about the smog in Shanghai having a deterrent effect on the residents of Shanghai and other visitors attending the park as your article discusses regarding the winter smog effects.

    Long DIS.
    Feb 4, 2015. 01:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google: Terrible Performance Should Be Worth $430 [View article]
    Google reported a good quarter regarding revenue. Search is still their meal ticket. You Tube is also paying off. They are investing in real estate and data centers to accommodate their growth plans.

    As Mr. Maurer's comments infer Google is also investing and expensing for items that are not paying off, for example, Google glass, driverless cars, fiber optic, and in the future Elon Musk's satellite launches.

    I am in a quandary about the founders of Google. They don't appear to respect ROI and ROA.

    As far as Google not providing guidance, so what. I am in agreement from another commenter that this is a game that is played by Wall Street analysts. What is important is do they show revenue growth, reasonable operating margins, steady net income, cap ex for anticipated growth, R&D that is relevant to the business , good cash flow, and a sound debt to equity.

    Share buybacks IMO are used to game the system for CEO's the board and senior VPs for their options. This is not say that Google shouldn't buyback shares to prevent 401K dilution but not to make EPS look better for the corner office.

    At this point in Google's business evolution it should consider starting a dividend. They are spending too much money on projects that IMO won't payoff in the next 5 years. Since CEOs, CFOs, COOs, and senior VPs have a difficult time forecasting year over year heavily investing in projects 5 years out is not worthwhile and the money better spent rewarding investors.

    I remain long Google but I remain concerned.
    Feb 2, 2015. 03:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Phase Of Search [View article]
    I like the article Tech Thoughts. Please continue with the good work.
    Feb 2, 2015. 02:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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