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153972

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  • Chesapeake Energy: An Open Letter To Carl Icahn [View article]
    I didn't buy CHK today in the hope of Icahn buying more stock. Per the last 13F he had raised his stakes in CHK in Q1 to all an all time high. To rely on Icahn who is already underwater to buy more and the basis for an investment is not sound judgement IMO. With that said, Todd has laid out a sound hypothesis for the stock's valuation. I too do not think that the stock is worth what Todd thinks it is but @ 8 bucks and change, I'm willing to invest in CHK.

    I laid out my reasons in the above comment so I don't need to rehash it.

    There are buyers and sellers everyday. Today, I was a buyer of CHK.

    We shall see in 6 months where Mr. Market is.

    Je vous dis adieu.
    Jul 27, 2015. 06:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy: An Open Letter To Carl Icahn [View article]
    Dar43...,

    Todd was wrong per Mr. Market when he wrote this article. Since he wrote it on June 22, and today's closing or July 24, CHK's stock has lost over 30% of it's market value. There is no quibbling that. Todd's thesis, however remains in tact IMO that given it's holdings it should be worth more than $8.27 at today's close.

    The energy market is in free fall due to speculators, Iran's entry into the world oil market, probable diminishing oil demand in China and new oil coming on stream in C and S America in the second half this year. At the same time the small shale E&P guys are going bankrupt, therefore oil, NGLs, and nat gas won't be as plentiful in the US play. I'm sure more bankruptcies are on the way from the smaller players. The question is will the little guy going bankrupt and removing supply match or surpass what is or will becoming online in the next 6 months. Do you know? I don't. And no one knows in three months where Brent or WTI will be. To be sure, Mr. Pickens and Mr. Kinder have thus far been wrong and they both know more than I do about energy. With that said, if educated oil men don't know, no one does.

    Todd has written a persuasive article on SA the other day and per the link below.

    http://bit.ly/1JE7xbq

    I am not here to defend Todd so please don't take it that way. What I'm saying is he presented a cogent argument on why he thinks CHK is undervalued. I think he is correct. I am not backing up the truck on this stock but I will buy on Monday barring some unforeseen tragedy over the weekend. I don't like to buy stocks that are depressed going into the weekend.

    One of my reasons for buying is that short positions are at an 8 per Yahoo finance. They've added to their positions from the end of May '15 to June '15, per Yahoo finance. Per a commenter in an article that I read there were more put options than call options and by a wide margin. IMO there are too many people betting against CHK. This is a contrarian bet admitedly on my part but I tend to go against the herd.

    I am not blind to CHK's financial metrics. Their overall debt in a market that has a falling commodity price per it's asset base and the FED raising interest rates is not for the faint of heart. At the same time rig counts since last year are down 54% from last year so the drillers and energy service providers are failing pain which makes CHK and other E&P companies have more leverage at the bargaining table.

    http://bit.ly/1qVLp9f

    Something has to give in the next 6 months. I am confident that the Saudis won't blink so that leaves the majors or the shale producers. I still can't believe that XOM, RDS, BP, TOT, et al are still pumping as much at these prices. Someone needs to tell Mr. Tillerson, et al that fighting the Saudis on oil is like fighting the FED.

    I do agree substantially with your above comment. If Todd would've "manned" up and conceded that he was too early to the market much of the vitriol would've been muted.

    Good luck with your investments.
    Jul 24, 2015. 07:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy playing defense, Credit Suisse says in downgrade [View news story]
    Icahn increased his share count in CHK in Q1 to all time high.

    Hedge funds have been also increasing their stakes in CHK starting in Q4 of 2014. Some have taken a real bath so the next 13F should enlighten us all.

    I have a problem relying on hedge funds and the Icahns of the world to invest with them. They do provide stock price support and can agitate for better stock performance but sometimes doing the "right" thing for stockholders is not the best thing for the company.

    Mr. Icahn and most hedge funds are traders not investors. Icahn's recent departure from Netfix is a case in point. I don't begrudge him taking profits and he did extremely well but NFLX as an investment thesis is and was still very sound. I don't have a stake in NFLX.

    I don't see any advantage for investors to buy stocks because Icahn, Ackman, etc., bought them. It is great for price support when they buy but when they sell it works the other way for the herd mentality that is Wall Street IMHO.
    Jul 24, 2015. 04:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy: An Open Letter To Carl Icahn [View article]
    Todd,

    We've all made bad calls. To read some of the comments, you'd think the commenters never made a bad investment, ill timed the market bought a put when it should've been a call option instead.

    As you are all too aware by now some SA readers are more interested in showing you up, beating their chest with their wisdom on investing because they made the correct decision to sell or write put options on CHK.

    Oddly enough, I think the stock is at a bottom. I don't know if there is much more bad news left. They do have an earnings report to tell us about and hopefully we will have some clarification on their hedges next year and 2017 but CHK to me is buy now.

    Good luck with your investments.
    Jul 23, 2015. 07:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Kinder Morgan Still Suits Income Investors [View article]
    Capitulation in the energy sector is almost there IMHO since CHK eliminated its dividend. Other E&P players with less favorable balance sheets will continue to pump to meet debt payments but the big boys can cut back without hurting too much. I foresee some curtailment in oil production domestically by the end of September or the driving season. Nat gas is anyone's guess. It is mind boggling that XOM, CVX, RDS, TOT Stat, continue to pump at these prices for nat gas and oil.

    When the shale production oil big boys blink and cut back on production it will be time to buy again.

    You may not get the best price for KMI then but you will know at least that the bottom is in. This will not hurt KMI either since nat gas and oil pipelines are based upon long term contracts. They have to pay no matter what unless of course bankruptcy rears it's ugly head.

    My main concern for KMI is it's debt. Since interest rates will be on the rise interest payments for KMI backlogs will cost more to build as will its revolver. If diminished nat gas and oil production is a net result what can KMI do once the contracts expire except reduce the toll fees in detoriating markets. This admitedly is a long way off but that is my main worry.

    I am still long KMI and will buy more at $34.50.
    Jul 22, 2015. 07:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Second Half Predictions - Part I [View article]
    Some Canadian and ROW patients come to the US for their visits to the Mayo and Cleveland Clinics, Johns Hopkins, Stanford, UCSF, UCLA, Mt. Sinai Beth-Israel, Bethesda Maryland et al because they treat maladies that very few other hospitals and physicians can do as well as we do and I for one am proud of our technology. This is not to say that France, Chile, Germany and Australia as well can't provide outstanding hospitals, surgeons, etc. but the US is the cream of the crop IF YOU CAN AFFORD IT or you have the connections.

    Pablomike, I don't know your net worth, net income, etc. nor your Canadian friends net wealth, income, etc; and quite frankly I don't give a SH*T, but these type of hospitals, physicians, recovery systems, rehab, physical therapy, home care and follow-up care facilities as well as support systems are predicated upon platinum medical coverage and or connections. This is not say that the average Joe can't get treatment but affluency and/or connections gets you to the front of the line. Please Google (which I own and now am luvin' it), Tom Brokaw, cancer, treatment, and you'll know what I'm talking about.

    I don't begrudge Mr. Brokaw his treatment, surgery, etc. Again, I am not a communist. What I begrudge is a Medicare system that is not provided for all of it's citzens in the richest country in the world. And if you don't like a public health care insurance because of BIG GUVIMENT I can also proscribe to a Swiss or a Singapore based market system that also heavily regulated.

    As St. Paul said in his Epistle to the Corinthians said: http://bit.ly/1Ols9cB

    I'm not a Christian because I can't meet the requirements of entry due to it's high standards; but I do listen and aspire to many of the New Testament readings.

    With this said, don't you think it is time to put away childless things.
    Jul 17, 2015. 10:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Second Half Predictions - Part I [View article]
    Bret,

    If we are going to discuss politicians that can speak out both of sides of their mouth, hypocrites, telling us what we want to hear, etc., Obama was not the first and will hardly be the last.

    I won't discuss the litany of presidents both Pubs and Dems throughout our history because it is several and some of them of them are on Mt. Rushmore.
    Jul 17, 2015. 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Motors Vs. Ford: Looking At The Impact Of China's Slowing Economy [View article]
    What happened to civility?
    Jul 16, 2015. 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Second Half Predictions - Part I [View article]
    Abortion is still legal in this country. Planned Parenthood is not making any money selling body parts.

    http://thebea.st/1Sq0tnA

    Regarding government control through regulations, laws, should we return the 19th Century way of performing medicine for our healthcare?

    Yes, the government pays for Medicare, Medicaid, and the VA as well as associated employees. Should we drop that too?
    Jul 16, 2015. 04:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Motors Vs. Ford: Looking At The Impact Of China's Slowing Economy [View article]
    Can Eurozone sales for F with increasing model introductions this year save F's bacon?

    Price competition in China with auto plant expansion by F and almost every other automaker on the planet is a concern with a country that has a bubblicious home and condo buying market and Chinese regulators of equity markets that remind me of the gang that couldn't shoot straight.

    F's C. and S. America sales have been in the tank and do not show signs of improvement anytime soon.

    N. American sales are OK but should've been better. In all fairness F's management has said all along it will be a second half story.

    I don' like the latest F headline on F series truck discount either. Management said it doesn't expect to have its F series lineup adequately stocked until September. This sounds to me that the assembly divisions are having parts supply problems, transportation problems, plant layout design problems or management issues somewhere or a combination of all of them.

    I am still long F but very cautious until they report. I may add if the price dips below 14.25 barring bad news from some aspect of F's world operations.

    Mr. Market is in flux is the reason I'm looking for a furhter dip in F's share price. As Phil Esterhaus from the hit TV series in the 80s said. "Hey. Let's be careful out there."

    http://bit.ly/1HD8rt2
    Jul 16, 2015. 10:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks Inks Deal To Open In South Africa In 2016 [View article]
    I concur with the author's opinion on the S. Africa expansion with some caveats.

    To be sure, S. Africa does have concerns. It's labor unrest has be an ongoing concern for years and years. It is usually caused by by poor working conditions, pay, etc and S. Africa has plenty of that. It's unemployment is also very high and youth unemployment is too high to be sustainable for any length of time without protests, rioting then crackdowns by the government, which makes investor sentiment less positive.

    SBUX IMO made the right move entering into S. Africa market in the long term because as the author suggests it's US market store count is quite high.
    Jul 16, 2015. 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel pushes out 10nm CPU launch; shares pare gains [View news story]
    A $1billion cut in capital budgets is not good for a tech company.
    Jul 16, 2015. 08:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Numbers That Matter From Wells Fargo's Earnings [View article]
    Very good article. Concise and to the point.
    Jul 16, 2015. 08:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Second Half Predictions - Part I [View article]
    Office Rat,

    You won't see any either that is practical given today's high tech medical treatment costs, doctor owned medical service clinics, test facilities, etc that create conflicts of interest, etc.

    Paul Ryan has a plan. Below is the link.

    http://1.usa.gov/1TDeFMp, etc.,

    It is dated.

    After perusing it you'll find that his solution is prevention of disease and his bottom line is a voucher system. I can't say I was surprised.

    I'm all for prevention. It is too bad he doesn't since most of our problems result in the poor quality of food we ingest, our eating habits and lack of exercise.

    If Mr. Ryan supported a bill that provided quality food in our K - 12 grade schools, I might buy into his argument. Instead his voting record indicates that he is aligned with Big Ag.

    Given today's technology, lack of doctors to meet the increased patient demand, state regulated hospital system that results in mixed standards and elevated costs for national chains, etc. as well as a for profit healthcare insurance system that charges more than Medicare because they can you have the system you do.

    Mr. Ryan's plan offers no solutions to those problems.
    Jul 15, 2015. 05:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Second Half Predictions - Part I [View article]
    I don't know about her qualifications so I can't comment on that. I did read, however that she was informed that her agency needed to upgrade the firewall and overall security on their web site and she opted to ignore it. One has to wonder given the recent hacks into Anthem, JPM, Target, etc., what was she thinking.
    Jul 15, 2015. 05:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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