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Purple_K

Purple_K
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  • Reasons Why I Have Even More Conviction In U.S. Silica [View article]
    "3. Question what everyone else, and I mean everyone else---they are SELLING the stock, not buying--- see that you don't see."

    - this is so ignorant as to defy replying, yet I will. Your stance is that if someone is NOT following the herd mentality, they are probably wrong. That contrarian investing doesn't work. And that when everyone is BUYING, when you are selling, you are probably wrong.

    (Let me stop your furious replying - no, you don't SAY that verbatim. But your statement is that he's "learning a lesson" strongly implies *he* is missing something, not the herd)

    Really? So when stocks have had a long run to the upside, have a lot of hype (inverse of the oil price hysteria of the last 2 months) and the smart money - who bought when the sector was terrible, or at least much lower - are selling when everyone else is screaming "New Paradigm! Disruption!" and buying, they are wrong?

    Im not saying this kid should be all in on one idea. Actually the fact that he says that at all is a sign of his experience, if for no other reasons than a) You should never expose your actual positions in general and b) It invites red herring trolling and dismissal of his fine analysis of this company by people who assume since he's young and going heavy it's simply the recklessness of youth, as opposed to having some balls when you believe in the idea. One need look no further than the fact the Packers will be watching the Super Bowl from home in two weeks to show that sometimes you need to do a cup check in order to win.
    Jan 19, 2015. 10:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reasons Why I Have Even More Conviction In U.S. Silica [View article]
    I am, only inasmuch as it affects my options positions. To wit, I had to cover both my 26 and 27 calls in the last 2 days as I didn't want to give up my long position. But the strength when the rest of the oil patch was down hard on 1/14 made me wonder if shenanagins were afoot.
    Jan 16, 2015. 02:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy: Good News For A Change [View article]
    SOES hasn't existed since, idk 2002 maybe? It *is* where I got my start, though

    "Gadfly" can be found in any dictionary.

    The quote is not meaningless, it is one of the most accurate things ever said. However, a sentiment doesn't define an investment strategy - but when you ARE going to speculate, if you can't live by that sword, you'll die by it. One need only witness the QQ'ing and schadenfreude that goes on here when some dilettante is on the wrong end of a downmove to see that in practice.
    Jan 16, 2015. 02:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Medallion Financial Corporation Has Far More Than '28%' Exposure To Medallion Prices [View article]
    West-

    There's nothing "secret" about it. Unless this is your sockpuppet account (at 28 comments), if youve lurked these boards you see the same thing over and over. I could go back to the glory days of companies like $PEIX and show how the same type of "new paradigm" zealots continually beat this dead horse.

    Also, dripping sarcasm noted.
    Jan 16, 2015. 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reasons Why I Have Even More Conviction In U.S. Silica [View article]
    Also FWIW, I closed my 26 and 27 calls for JAN at a tiny profit, and rolled forward into FEB 28 and 29's. I have bids in to cover on significant weakness, but either way my cost basis will be close to the 3-year low, and that's a level I am willing to hold at.
    Jan 16, 2015. 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reasons Why I Have Even More Conviction In U.S. Silica [View article]
    Well... some things to consider:

    -as Alex pointed out, balance sheet is solid. For the time being.

    -has been extremely strong in face of volatility last few days, which leads me to think at least near term bottom in between 23-25

    -the fact that this is oil- fracking- proppant- based will add to the swings, and lack of weekly options tends to give extra juice to monthlies

    -I sold 23 puts for JAN when stock was 23.05 or so on 1/12 and got .80 for them. In truth I acted a bit hastily, but the fact someone paid so much for them - and couldn't have been more wrong - indicates to me there is a lot of uncertainty premium there

    I am very bullish on oil going forward in general - despite the nonsense about "ending hydrocarbon / ICE" folderol, at least for my lifespan, oil will be essential. This oil downmove is IMO a "generational wealth" opportunity, the likes I havent seen since I bought $IP under 6 and $GE under 8. We will look back in 3 years and ask why we did not buy more (assuming you buy the right ones). Do I think $SLCA is a buy and forget company? I dont know. But I think were way closer to the bottom on oil than the top, and no one is going to ring a bell when the last seller hits the bid. I am slowly accumulating the ones I think will still be here 5 years from now.
    Jan 16, 2015. 01:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Everything Has Changed: Oil, Saudi Arabia, And The End Of OPEC [View article]
    "So here we are in the future and Mr Bradbury was exactly correct."

    -completely leaving out the violent, nihilistic, totalitarian society, robot hounds and book-burning.

    With all due respect to Bradbury's masterpiece (and it is), his "exactly correct" is more a matter of "throw enough things at the wall and something will stick" than augury.
    Jan 16, 2015. 12:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reasons Why I Have Even More Conviction In U.S. Silica [View article]
    "Its $32 call expiring June 19 has a bid price of $2 and the premium is a whopping 26%, or a staggering 5.2% a month!"

    - staggering indeed! But smarter money than us is bidding those for a reason. I would never go out more than a month or so on any oil based call selling, especially after the downmove since summer. You can get $1 for the FEB 30, which is a definite call should oil move, but if youre *trading* SLCA, and your cost is sub-25 (as it should be if you got in last week or so), there are worse things than making $6 on a $25 stock in 6 weeks.
    Jan 16, 2015. 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy: Good News For A Change [View article]
    +1 for passive-aggressiveness: "Self-styled"
    -1 for thouroughness

    Even you should know that investment style leads to name, not vice versa, and if you actually *read* the bio, I was quoting from the bible of trading, good sir, not naming myself.

    My point is that one would think that one of the few coal companies currently considered to be "high quality" (truly subjective) would move a few cents on such news, Chinese or otherwise. I long ago abandoned my coal positions, somewhere around $BTU 16 or so, but down here seems opportune for aggressive call selling against.
    Jan 16, 2015. 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medallion Financial Corporation Has Far More Than '28%' Exposure To Medallion Prices [View article]
    "The technology involved is not especially exotic (like the fuel cell cases that are inaptly cited)"

    -kudos on missing the point completely

    I was not drawing apples-apples comparison of technologies, rather, if you are familiar with these boards (particularly $TSLA) you will recognize the same template is used to prophecize the doom of (insert_industry_here)

    savvy?
    Jan 16, 2015. 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy: Good News For A Change [View article]
    Under 6.5 again. Apparently someone is reading "good news" a bit differently.
    Jan 15, 2015. 03:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reasons Why I Have Even More Conviction In U.S. Silica [View article]
    Ok thanks for clearing that up - I have been writing calls and selling puts when it has moved sharply, some expire worthless, some I have covered in order to roll to next month. It is showing resilience in todays market which leads me to believe we might stay above 26 tomorrow for expiration and I would rather hold my sub-24 long position then give it up at 26.

    I was confused as to your time frame on them, and it didn't make sense to initiate a new short call for 2 days and no premium.

    Good luck!
    Jan 15, 2015. 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reasons Why I Have Even More Conviction In U.S. Silica [View article]
    Why would you do this? "Case in point is $28 call expiring this Saturday."

    They have been 0 bid all day, total 10 volume at .10. Since you wrote this today, I would assume you checked your theoretical executions - in that, if you even *got* taken trying to sell these, you make a whopping .10/contract before fees, yet risk some unforseen event occurring.

    If you think this is adequate reward for your risk, we're playing different games, good sir. Not to mention your likelihood of even getting filled on this is almost nil.
    Jan 15, 2015. 12:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Medallion Financial Corporation Has Far More Than '28%' Exposure To Medallion Prices [View article]
    "The overarching reality is that a technologic disruptor has begun to rattle a fairly hidebound industry. Whether it's because of (substitute_hype_compa... now, or something else later, the (substitute_unpopular_... business is pretty much toast."

    -same nonsense with $TSLA $PLUG $FCEL and others in the flavor of the moment

    NYC will not abandon the medallion system in any timeframe that would affect people investing <10, which is not even counting the fact that the business model of $TAXI is shifting away from one that is totally reliant on said medallions anyhow.
    Jan 15, 2015. 11:26 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reasons Why I Have Even More Conviction In U.S. Silica [View article]
    Is the huge spike today a reaction simply to the share repurchase? I am a bit skeptical as there are still juicy premiums in the 26 calls for this Friday
    Jan 14, 2015. 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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