RampMan

8 Comments

    • ON: Fri Apr 11th 12:53 PM
      Commented on:
      Garmin: Clearly Something's Not Right
      THANKs.

      Appreciate everyone selling this stock.

      Don't mind me. We are adding GPS to two aircraft to be compliant with changes in air traffic. Guess what? Most small aircraft haven't bought yet, but practically speaking have to, to keep flying intrument approaches over the next few years. And with aviation fuel at $5/gal, GPS provides economy, better safety and tremendous reduction of cockpit workload under normal and critical conditions.

      On the auto front, anybody notice that the cheap old cab companies, who don't have two dimes, and company fleets are retrofitting older vehicles, AND replacing two year old units. The ever enhanced capabilities of each newer model provides the ROI to keep upgrading.

      Now, the question to ask. Where is the market for GPS?

      Is it with the existing world fleet of personal and business vehicles (aircraft and cars) ?

      Or with the relatively tiny percentage of new vehicles ?

      HMMMM. The issue de jour that I hear is that integration with cell phones and such will obsolete Garmin and TomTom.

      Think about it. A GPS cannot be used, is NOT APPROVED for navigation unless it is mounted in the aircraft. The GPS is not going to be replaced by a hand held, not gonna happen.
      It's not just the rule, it's the only practical solution in that environment.

      Now to the car. Which is more likely ?
      That we'll all figure out each of our cell phones various cabilities while driving (how many people still haven't figured out how to update their voice mail message).

      Or, with GPS become the first data center of the vehicle. Will the dash mounted GPS integrate and become the first capable platform for integration of other data, sattelite tracking, music, data collection ?

      Hands free ? It is illegal to drive in Brooklyn Ohio without both hands on the wheel. Explain please, how the cell in your lap is going to help you navigate. My cell phone is the size of a baby ruth, as a navigation tool, reading, inputting and using is terribly difficult as the device was not designed for the application... user input is hard, no vehicle input, etc

      I'm betting there isn't enough production capacity to fill the continuing new and replacment opportunities within the existing world fleet.

      EXECUTED, $45.25. Thanks everybody
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    • ON: Fri Apr 11th 11:37 AM
      Commented on:
      Why I am Selling Thornburg Mortgage
      I find it refreshing to see/hear the logic of why investors do what they do. Thanks for the insite into your mind.

      I am an extreme bottom feeder. I try for the same bounce potential at a lower price, but it's a daily torment not keep holding off. And with that waiting game I also get the pain of seeing many stocks that's were near the bottom, near but not at my price point rebould dramatically.

      I bought into TMA at 1.59. Clearly the volitility is gone now.

      The best hopes I see are for a stockholder suit, ala Bear Sterns. Like it or not, good management or not, the assets belong to the stock holders, and the choice to let the company (and jobs) survive is uniquely and exclusively the shareholders, not the management. Diluting the stock to keep the jobs may have served the employees, maybe averted bankruptcy, but was not in the best interest of the shareholders.

      I expect, as a result of litigation over the next year, that prior shareholders will have to have the right to buy, as new the new money investors have, up to 5x my number of shares at 1Cent.

      My bet is that reverse dilution will occur, so am holding for the long run.
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    • ON: Wed Apr 9th 23:20 PM
      Commented on:
      Windows Collapsing Under Its Own Weight - Gartner
      I think we all love to hate Microsoft.

      App bloating isn't a MS only problem. Mac updates aren't coming out less frequently. You can't run any of the 700 flavors of Linux without tools to manage its ever growing updates and complex interactions with other systems, and virus defs, and on and on. The world IS getting more complicated, and all systems, MS or not, have to adapt.


      Gartner and a prior reader were correct about specific adjustments.
      - Licensing needs to promote user mobility vs punishing it.
      - Specialized versions, maybe even concurrently running on the same box might simplify some specialized server applications, but not likely the "gotta run everything on one desktop" crowd
      - Virtualization does create separation between the hardware and operating system which we like. We run upwards of 15-20 virtual machines per computer. Certainly the more you run, the more demands on the hardware. We buy lots of new machines as a result, and the economies are absolutely compelling. ROIs of a month or two. The author's "too big for the hardware" chart seems irrelavant to anything.

      But these are technical things, and people have choices.

      As an investor, my question is more like..
      What is Microsoft doing right ?

      I want to know who the wiinners are.

      How is it, that with Sun's free office clone, and myriad fine choices for hardware and O/s.... Why do people, and corporations, overwhelmingly vote for Microsoft with their dollars ?

      Don't care about technical snits, whether the O/S and apps run on Intel, under VM, or on a 20 year old Tandy. I want to guage Microsoft's ability to generate earnings going forward.

      Gartner didn't say "Windows is collapsing under its own weight". They said Windows is monolithic. That comes with being the dominant operating system, across virtually all end user applictions, for two decades.

      I suspect Microsoft is working to overcome the issues that come with success so they can continue growing.

      Like it or not gang, Microsoft is wildly successful. We might as well focus on why, not why not.








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    • ON: Wed Apr 9th 22:37 PM
      Commented on:
      Garmin: Clearly Something's Not Right
      By the way, with gas going up, don't even consider a GPS as an effective way to reduce time, fuel and aggravation.

      Consumers on limited budgets certainly won't figure out that saving 20 miles and 20 minutes of drive time a month cuts consumption by more than the cost of the GPS. And they certainly don't need to navigate around obstructions. Arriving on time is overrated. Knowing where you are in an emergency isn't much help either.

      SELL SELL SELL
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    • ON: Wed Apr 9th 22:27 PM
      Commented on:
      Garmin: Clearly Something's Not Right
      I about 5% (err...3% now) of my trading account in Garmin.

      Have watched it just keep on sliding. Plus it's terribly volitile.

      It's faired worse than any other stock I have. Certainly not as well as Ford who's way up in last few weeks.

      Guess that means more cars with fewer GPSs.

      I think everybody should consider getting out of Garmin, this week, right away... as I have just a little cash left and would like to get as many shares as I can before something triggers a rise.
      View article »
    • ON: Sun Mar 9th 18:12 PM
      Commented on:
      Market Not Buying Forward P/E Estimates
      What exactly are we debating ? Every upturn, and every downturn, eventually ends and reverses. We all have to play the factors affecting the market against our specific investments. The old factors are there, and every few years some new ones: Global Warming, Innovations, bigger Natl debt, or curves from left field like the sub prime sludge, or whatever the RTC thing was a few years back.

      Here's what I know.

      My crystal ball has always been reallly fuzzy. I have no clue what's going to happen next month, so I invest accordingly. I don't care about short term results, 90 day trends and can't imagine what signal I could find to pick the bottom better than everybody else.

      What I do know is BAC is a strong company with good management that has performed year over year, it has more cash than others, and pays a great dividend.
      I know BA has 750 orders, now delayed a year, for aircraft it will deliver over the next decade. It will make money, and my stock will rise.
      AT&T and VZ pay a 5% dividend to sooth the pain if they moves up or down a bit. NAT has paid a 7% dividend for 10 years, but it's stock is down now, pushed down from a rediculous high based on one bad quarter..

      Apple is innovative, has preserved cash. I believe in the company, and plan to hold because I think it will grow a little, or a lot, in the next few YEARS.

      I've watched mine yo-yo from $70 in 2006 to $199, and nearly back.
      Though it doesn't pay a dividend, I continue to protect myself, earn income and play the "banker" by selling options to folks who play the timing game. somebody just paid $27 for a $150 call for Jan10. My net for shares purchased at $126 this month is $99. Two years from now, if it expires I get to sell a new option, or, if I'm "unlucky" will be forced to sell at $150 for a 50% profit.

      So, you guys keep betting the farm on the timing thing. I'll stick with looking for companies with solid management, 5 and 10 year track records of revenue and earnings growth, conservative cash management, dividends, and enough volitility to allow me to sell options over and over and over.

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    • ON: Thu Mar 6th 18:59 PM
      Commented on:
      Why I've Decided to Raise Some Cash for March
      hmmm.

      I never understood the "testing(retestin... the limits" stuff, even with a math degree. Now more than ever, seems like sophisticated voodoo, as markets are punching holes in various barriers.

      From my perspective it's simple. Earnings drive the price of stocks. Prices rise and fall based on investor perceptions of likely changes in earnings, sometimes based on fact, sometimes on emotions, but not because some silly triangle is facing north, left or elsewhere.

      I'm guessing there will be all kinds of explanations as to how clear this chart was AFTER the market does whatever it does. But stock values continue to respond to demand, costs of goods, and the unique strategic advantages/disadvantag... a company has in its market. Toss in less predictable factors from left field... weather, elections, turmoil, legislation, and innovations.

      Net? Interpolating statistics of aggregrate market activity only provides a hint of future performance, and only given similiar circumstances. We all still have to make decisions on which factors affect performance of individual stocks.


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    • ON: Thu Mar 6th 12:32 PM
      Commented on:
      Thornburg's a Huge Bargain After Monday's Crash
      >> Well, at 3:23 PM, while TMA was trading at about $3.60 (a bit under my entry price of $3.81 - oops!).... I ended up buying another 10,000 shares near the end of the day (at $4.51/share).

      The key to being a good bottom feeder isn't to buy mildly beaten stocks, you need to see buckets of blood. Too many other factors, so a few, only a few, will ever recover, or pay dividends.

      I think you're overall assessment is "right enough" to be plausable but that doesn't mean the market will ever perceive it the same way. I preferred buying today at $1.50 (3/6) At that price, TMA has potential for enormous returns but it's still very long odds that anybody will ever pay more.

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