Jeez

Is Potash Corp. Overpriced? (Part 2)

How come the author does not know what you know - "POT has multi-year contracts". Is this really true. That changes the outcome to a large extent.


On Mar 06 05:12 PM User 224899 wrote:

> Paul Choi wrote this: "Investors should recognize that K fertilizer
> is not ‘make or die’ fertilizer. It is a luxury, not a necessity."
>
>
> My response: Any corn crop fertilized with fertilizer that includes
> potash will produce twice as much corn per acre as the same corn
> crop with all other factors the same except no potash is in the fertilizer
> mix.
>
> So, Paul, you think people are going to elect to get half the yield
> from their crops in order to save on potash? I can just imagine the
> policy-making conversations in India: "I've got the answer, Rahkesh,
> we'll let twice as many millions of people starve because potash
> is too expensive this year. We'll just plow the bodies into the fields."
> That's brilliant policy, huh?
>
> We'll see how the Uralkali production goes, and if they can deliver
> what they say they can. Russians have managed to botch their potash
> production twice in the last couple of years due to unsuccessful
> mining practices (maybe they were unavoidable disasters, maybe they
> weren't). The Russians are playing hardball with the natural resource
> markets, if this winter's natural gas story is any indication, and
> when you play that close to the ragged edge you sometimes get cut
> on the blade.
>
> Finally, before anyone starts to think Uralkali is going to "bring
> down Potash Corp", or some other such silliness, let's not forget
> that last year Potash Corp wrote multi-year contracts with India
> and China, which covers deliveries to be made in 2009, and demand
> was so great in 2008 that Potash Corp was only able to make partial
> deliveries.
>

Is Potash Corp. Overpriced? (Part 2)

This is for amusement; don't tell me that you make investment decisions based on what you read here. Every trade has two sides and one can spin a tale either way.

PS: The author does declare that he is short POT. Of course, he is short - how would you take this article if he was long?

On Mar 06 08:50 AM manuel wrote:

> sorry but how do i know if people writing negative comments are shorting
> the stock? what would happen if someone shorts the stock and writes
> negative comments in about every blog commenting the stock? Would
> he get cought? would his comments be cancelled? If he delivers false
> informations?

Taking Prudent Approach: Exiting Potash

What an article! Did you get paid "by the words"? Anyone could have said what you said in a para. What a waste of time.

Potash: Looking for Lower Prices

Wow what an analysis!

"pattern has served as a tight band to guide the stock price." - who all can see this as a tight band? I need new glasses!

Is Potash Corp. Overpriced?

Did I read someone say it is NOT a day trader stock? Just check the price charts on the daily basis on google. Heck last week went from 80 to 95 and down again this week to 85 and the way down to 80 by weekend. I bet half the trading is by quick flippers. And the beauty is that the options move just as fast and furiously.

Here is a suggestion. Buy your 100 shares (or whatever) for next 5 years and with remaining play money, buy whenever it is down by 5-10% on the day. It always comes up within few days. Remember to sell half the position and put stop loss on remaining half.

It has worked as a charm for the last month. I know - it works as long as it works! However, I am always net long with tight stops. I would not wait for it to come down to $65 again.

Good News for Long-Term Potash Investors

duh?