phlash79

• Who's to Blame for IndyMac's Failure? [view article]

  Schumer could have simply stated that a number of regional banks were at or near insolvency...it was with great amount of idiocy that he mentioned an institution by name...regardless of any speculation the fact remains that with the publishing of his open letter depositors with drew 1.3 billion from INDYMAC...I don't know what reserve ratio is required but the bottomline it represented something over 6.3% of their assets plus it drove down their stock price and associated market capitalization...I agree it was like yelling "fire" in a crowded theater and you have to ask yourself...who benefitted by creating panic? How much additional fear has the "self fulfilling" prophecy caused by Schumer going to create? How many more financial institutions will now see a similar run creating the proverbial snowball effect?
  
  At best Schumer should be censured for poor judgement and investigated for using his office and authority for potential abuse and maybe even outright monetary gain...
  
  With that said...he had a responsibility to make the case for appropriate oversight...but he has been head of the committees and in the offices mentioned in the above article for what "two years"?
  
  Draw your own conclusions from there as to who is doing their jobs... Jul 13 12:11 PM

• Did Apple Manufacture a First-Day iPhone Shortage? [view article]

  Is everyone forgetting that their were supply problems and production supposedly only began in earnest 2 or 3 weeks later than promised...I would suggest that this issue underlied the entire of shortage...also I find it quite possible that the idea of "hold back" was someones bright idea of making sure to keep the sales flow going through the weekend due to shortage...but maybe in retrospect it was someones idea of making sure that they didn't overload the activation system...lol...of course limiting downloads of 2.0 to new customers for several days might have worked better...lol...in any respect it is what it is and hopefully the companies both learned a few new lessons...apparently the activations and downloads were somewhat easier by the end of the day on Friday...not 3 days like last year...as to the stock price...unfortunately AAPL won't rise stratospherically as long as the S&P 500 is going down...at best it will rise slightly or only go down a little until all this financial mess and the fear it is causing is mollified... Jul 13 11:47 AM

• Apple Hype Priced In - Stop Trading! (6/9/08) [view article]

  I agree...apple has far to go...he is treating like a trade instead of an investment and I am sure a few months from now when apple is at all time highs due to the synergy of their business ventures...he will sheepishly vow not to repeat his mistake in the future...lol...I find it funny that all the Fast Money Guru's admitted to "holding" apple long term...and a few recommended buying more on the dips... Jun 10 08:05 AM

• High Steel Prices: A Preview of Peak Oil [view article]

  two additional points...addressing the timing of solutions...electric cars like Israel is setting up ...is only a degree of scale in difference to mandating that we move to digital TV and subsidizing the set top converters...if we want to move to electric vehicles I am sure we can find motivations to accelerate the process...
  
  The two points on Thorium...the plants can be be built in a fraction of the time and at a fraction of the cost...And for the fearmongers the units can be built with a failstop similar to the freeze plugs in your car/truck engine that shuts down the reaction and stores the reactive material...no nuclear accidents that current nuclear technologies suffer from... May 18 12:54 AM

• High Steel Prices: A Preview of Peak Oil [view article]

  Carbon based fuels have a limited lifetime...the beginning of the end was the first day we started using them...the continuing folly is to argue the point...we live in an eco system that we impact significantly and no matter what we do...we are going to impact that system...the trick is find balance and avoid tipping points...electricity offers the best alternative to petroleum for transportation...Thori... powered nuclear power generation offers a solution for the future...the Indians and Russians are pursuing this as we speak...there is a tremendous amount of thorium found in nature...it offers more energy per kilogram than anything else currently known...it requires plutonium for a trigger which is why the Russians want to utilize the technology to obliterate their weapons grade fuel...why because it leaves none behind...which would solve the issues facing us from terrorist states like Iran, Korea and others that need power...political reasons are another whole discussion...half life of the material is measured in 100's of years instead of 1000's....fuel will last 7 years requiring a lot less maintenance...all of the other forms of renewable energy will provide stopgaps and alternatives but "those who have cheap and available energy will grow more stable and will be the leaders in the future...this should be the US"...
  
  As usual Education is the key...and this site tries to accomplish that by presenting the facts...blaming politicians is a waste of time...they spend their entire lives acheiving compromise...a crisis creates change...and a crisis is approaching... May 18 12:48 AM

• Oil Bulls' Biggest Nightmare: A Stronger Dollar [view article]

  I have one rhetorical question...I keep reading that the US individual savings rate is low...what I want to know are they using outdated criteria...ie how much is in savings accounts? I don't know how they define it but there must be 100's of billions if not several trillion dollars be contributed (saved) into 401K's, SEP's, IRA's etc...as provided for by law...the same monies that are either on the side lines in CD's or Money Market accounts or equities or treasuries...I would say that we probably save more money in this fashion than anyother country in the world...I know between contributions and matching and earnings I built my account well into 6 figures...
  
  And I call it savings for retirement...lol Apr 27 09:01 PM

• Apple Confirms iPhones Targets, But Will Defer Some Hardware Numbers [view article]

  The only thing left to say...is that when the financials lower there future earnings estimates every analyst sighs with relief that now we know the real truth...as opposed to Apple who seemingly provides accurate and acheivable financial goals and strives to surpass them...and even more discouraging are the analyst who pick one aspect of Apple's great product lineup and expect them all to act like rising stars when everyone who really knows business that "Cash Cows" like IPOD pay the bills...they overlook the "residue" business that keeps on paying both from deferred revenues and from the "iTune" store...or the overwhelming success of their retail outlets in the US...whereas all the other "high end" retailers including Starbucks whines about "customers" spending money on living...if you offer value the customers will support you... it all comes down to ethics...Apple appears to have...other companies don't and a fair number of the analyst appear to get paid to trash/manipulate the stock especially during earning report times...
  
  I researched the last few earnins reports and the pattern is always the same...unfortunately I was not aware of this...I will be in the future like aapl shareholder above... Apr 24 01:19 AM

• Under The Radar News - Tuesday [view article]

  I read 5 negative to very negative outlooks above and yet banks and financials climbed significantly...I am sure glad that reporting outlets like Seekingalpha and Minyanville exist to provide the facts along with references...if a tech company had the issues anyone of these financial companies have...it's stock price would tank significantly more...I almost feel like a number of the mainstream press are on the payrolls of the FED and Big Investment houses to provide false hope and misinformation...
  
  Have a great day!
  
  Peace Apr 01 01:08 PM

• The Fed and the Henhouse [view article]

  Michael,
  
  I read you here and on Minyanville...it is obvious that you are not on the Fed's and JPM's payroll to disseminate misinformation...lol..... others will read your insights and heed your advice...I am starting to wonder if only you and a handful of others have seen presentations like T2 partners...
  
  Have a great day Apr 01 12:57 PM

• Financials Likely in Dead Cat Bounce, But Fed's Now a Wildcard [view article]

  I have researched the RBMS and CBMS monthly default rates...looked at how they put together CDO's ...learned a new word...Tranches...and in all of these presentation and articles not one person mentioned that real estate --in my mind a renewable resource...should be devalued to pennies on the dollar...the property remains...someone will eventually purchase it...albeit at a discount to the loan value but still the asset or liability depending on how you looked it is still physically present...why not reconsider this write down mess based on real market values despite depressed prices and then realize that eventually the asset will move from depreciating to appreciating...
  
  Can you explain why the drastic writedowns? If not please let me know where I can purchase some of this real estate for .05 per dollar of value...regardless of the inflated price...lol
  
  Mar 24 08:00 PM

• Bespoke's Commodity Snapshot: Key Support Lines Challenged [view article]

  I'd say the time to buy gold is right after the IMF sells it 400 tons...as of this moment...they haven't reached a decision on the timeline... Mar 24 01:57 AM

• Global Precious Metals Correction: Healthy and Overdue [view article]

  You know it is funny...the FED didn't make the money (30 Billion) banks did it...however their funny money as mentioned above has now been added to our national debt because it will end up being covered...and even that number was probably a compromise...that JPM had to accept...as I have read elsewhere two other potential bidders declined to take part...
  
  The IMF is supposedly going to sell 400 tons of gold...do you think one or more of the members jumpbed the gun...and sold some to support the dollar for their own interests? In addition, do you think some of the banks, dealer/brokers sold off some of their holdings in ETF's and physical gold maybe even leased gold...lol
  
  The BSC transaction will be tied up in lawsuits for the foreseeable future guaranteed...
  
  CIT is failing...
  
  And I agree all the rhetoric on reasons why the institutions went to the Fed Window is just that...they really needed the monies...
  
  Also the Fed loosened up the criteria prior to this weeks auction...sounds like we have found a shortcut to the RTC ...just pick up the mortgages without all the red tape and middlemen...lol
  
  Have a great evening...
  
  Mar 24 01:45 AM

• 3 Reasons To Be Bullish on the Investment Banks [view article]

  I agree the investment houses maybe an investment someday...but just in the last few days...S&P downgraded both GS and LEH...The monthly default rates of RBMS' (Residential Backed Mortgage Securities) is accelerating with huge increases in subprime loans not even close to reset dating back only to AUG 07...we haven't even started seeing many of the 2006 resets of 2/28 loans...the lending criteria was so loose that 2006 defaults will far surpass 2005's...and even the first half of 2007 2/28 resets are still 18 months away...CBMS (commerical backed mortgage securities) are seeing increased defaults...I wonder why when you have empty buildings because the economy is in a downturn...ALT A and even Prime borrowers are defaulting at higher rates...
  
  Why would you invest in a sector that may be rallying on short covering? Or why would you invest to find a bottom when we are at least a year away from any type of recovery...CIT is failing as we speak...BSC's purchase will be mired in lawsuits for the foreseeable future...Earnings on banks will be lower for at least the next year...what is positive about this? or is it wishful thinking...I would imagine had Apple turned in a 42% loss and said it's earnings would be down 50% for the rest of the year...it wouldn't go up $20 rather it would tank to almost worthless...I think that the S&P is so heavily waited in financials that we see self-fulfilling prophecy in action...too many are wishing it would go up and others are artificially pushing it up...the deleveraging in commodities maybe the best sign we have of a move to bolster balance sheets...
  
  But most of all I think the headline was misleading and could create misconception...yes when we are at a true bottom then bottom fishing will take guts...re run this article then...lol
  
  Mar 24 01:31 AM

• As Alt A Mortgages Breakdown, Ultrashort Financial Not So Cool Anymore [view article]

  Yes it would seem that SKF is the place to be...I legged in as the price started falling...I have seen several analyses of the RBMS --residential backed mortgage securities and the CBMS -- commerical backed mortgage securities....specific... monthly default rates and they agree with they synopsis above...in fact the graphs show the upcoming resets for sub-prime are defaulting earlier and at a higher rate...it also showed higher rates for the ALT A and even the Prime...MY GREATEST FEAR with this position is the continued intervention in creative and unexpected ways that the government continues to implement to keep the credit market and the BIG 5 Trading houses from freezing up...this is one play where I believe patience and wide stops to the downside will be necessary...unless the widespread market begins to learn the magnitude of the issue and that we have only been dealing mostly with loans defaults from 2005 resets...
  
  Have a Happy Easter... Mar 22 11:01 AM

• CPI: Respite or Reversal? [view article]

  THe core CPI maybe a great filter for looking at long term trend...but i the real world I still have to buy food and fuel...and without a doubt those prices are up and rising...also a force multiplier on commodities is the flight of previous equity buyers to equities focusing on commodities further driving up simulated demand and thus the prices...already DBC is seeking additional commodities to purchase to sustain the growth...they have reached limits on wheat, corn, soybeans, etc...so now they are looking to soy oil and meal and others...this means that food prices can't help but go up...as artificial demand drives up pricing...
  
  Further the injection of liquidity has created a deflation of the dollar so from our perspective...prices are going up...a case could be made and has that the value of the dollar is sinking rapidly while other currencies are rising...so that has to be considered as while...the Euro which started out near parity with the dollar is now worth over .50 more and projected to reach 1.60 in the near future...even the Canadian dollar is worth more then the US dollar...
  
  Most importantly the news from S&P that we are seeing the end of the subprime writedowns included "for 2007"...what most don't realize and they definitely took advantage of our naitivity is that the current mess only reflects the unwinding of loans made in 2005...the loosening criteria for loaning in 2006 and even some in 2007 mean that will will see even more writedowns for 2008 (for loans hitting reset from 2006) and 2009 (for loans hitting reset from 2007)...in other words this mess is just beginning and the FED has burned through a significant portion of their "Capital" to date...the trend in the stock market will down for the foreseeable future...I am using ultrashorts purchased on rallies and sold on dips to make money...seems to work like clockwork and acts as a great hedge maintaining my portfolio value on those stocks like S and AAPL I am long on...
  
  Im Mar 16 11:13 AM

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