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    • Wed Aug 13th 18:48 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      General Discussion on HTE
      Further, oil price falls would not affect income compared to first half 2008, as it was mostly hedged at lower than 100 per bl.
      And still further, the refinery has ben having very bad crack spreads, and those can only improve in the future, in average.
      So the 0.30 monthly distribution looks solid as far as the eye can see, and even could rise.
      Market shall recognize this any time now, probably when the panic of oil falling prices abates.


      On Aug 08 12:20 PM S.Murphy wrote:

      > Looking at the technical aspects of HTE right now, it seems to be
      > considerably undervalued/oversold based on historical valuations
      > relative to crude prices. With the speculative bubble in crude unwinding,
      > even if oil finally settles under $100/bl, crack spreads should leave
      > Harvest in good financial shape and the dividend intact. Oil is certainly
      > not getting any easier to extract from the ground and adequate supply
      > will be an issue until some alternative form of energy becomes feasible.
      > There is simply no alternative energy source even remotely feasible
      > in the foreseeable future. If the speculative bubble swings the other
      > way (short), as pendulums do once everyone tries to sit their butts
      > on THAT bandwagon, OPEC will simply reduce output. Either way HTE,
      > BPT, PWE, BTE, PGH, and PBT look like they are all oversold at the
      > moment, more because of the mass exodus from oil than from a fundamental
      > perspective.
      View forum topic »
    • Mon Jun 2nd 00:29 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      General Discussion on HTE
      Solid buy
      Hedges have been depressing reported results, but that's being consumed.
      HTE is valued for 90 dlrs oil and 8 dlr natural gas
      View forum topic »
    • Tue May 27th 23:19 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Primus Guaranty, Ltd. Q1 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
      How is the counterparty panic to be overcome?
      First, nothing can be done whilst the environment is generally negative.
      But after the credit climate improves, Primus will have to issue a large amout in new equity, so to "shock" the market with a massive leverege reduction.
      Is there any other way?
      Selling insurance is a credibility based business, and financial managers will need powerful reasons to buy insurance again from Primus.
      View article »
    • Sat May 10th 17:21 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Harvest Energy Trust: Not Like Other Refiners
      Live, HTE has just issued convertibles, so the holders are selling shares short, and calls. They will run out of stock eventually, question is, will that be before or after oil prices turn down?
      View article »
    • Wed May 7th 22:20 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Harvest Energy Trust: Not Like Other Refiners
      well results are out now, are they as strong as you xpected?
      I see flat per-unit cash flow yoy, may be the comparison looks better in the face of 4q07, and of the pesimistic market expectations.

      Old hedges are slowly consumed and replaces by better ones, bit by bit.

      The 0.30 distribution monthly was confirmed , and 3.6 $C yearly seems sustainable now, and that makes the 23 dollar/unit very cheap. Even 29 would still be a multiple of 8!
      View article »
    • Wed May 7th 17:47 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Harvest Energy Trust: Not Like Other Refiners
      What happened to the 1Q results, weren't they due on May 7?
      View article »
    • Mon Mar 10th 17:24 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      No Reason for BofA - Countrywide Merger to Fail
      I do have a position in CFC debt (not shares), so I'd like to share your confidence.
      The problem is fear. Basically fear of finding that the losses on CFC portfolio finally exceed its bookvalue + reserves
      No hard data point to such a shortfall sofar, but if panic spreads, people -BAC board- may prefer to pass on an opportunity rather than run some additional risk.
      Ot the other hand, the deal is clever for BAC, and if they let it go, BAC may have to pay penalties, and some still cleverer private equity fund may finally find the courage to put a few billion to capture the leading mortgages issuer and keep it alive until better times return...
      View article »
    • Sun Feb 24th 15:05 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Making the Big Switch from Mutual Funds to ETFs
      Take a look at PFK, as a substitute for your TIPS. You get a much higher yield, for the same duration, and the difference is a lot more than Prudential spread would justify.
      View article »
    • Fri Feb 22nd 07:39 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is It 1990 All Over Again?
      Well S&P is @ 1350 already. Now if earnings fall to 80 and multiples to 13, that give a scaring 1040, is that yr view?
      View article »
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