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How Much Risk Is the Treasury Really Assuming from Financial Institutions? (Part 2)

It has not been proved that any of the CDS issued by AIG and standing in 2009 had any cancelling by-letter of any kind.
Even if some CDS might eventually be found to be fraudulent, why should that invalidate biilions of valid contracts?

It is hard to believe the conspiracy theory that AIG managers were systematically risking jail for the benefit of shareholders.

IMVHO, these destructive and misleading accusations seem more like propaganda of traders who are short the financials, rather than a contribution to debate.

Why We Need 'Chapter TARP' Bankruptcy

Bankruptcy for AIG, as for any financial company, destroys the value of the franchise and the company's assets, spreads pain to all creditors and counterparties.
Just compare % of assets recovered in Bear Sterns with the same % in Lehman brothers.
Populism and hot heads can do a lot of damage, then the average citizen will suffer a lot more and 50 years from now great books will be written about how stupid decisions were taken. But it will be too late for two generations.

Primus Guaranty, Ltd. Q1 2008 Earnings Call Transcript

How is the counterparty panic to be overcome?
First, nothing can be done whilst the environment is generally negative.
But after the credit climate improves, Primus will have to issue a large amout in new equity, so to "shock" the market with a massive leverege reduction.
Is there any other way?
Selling insurance is a credibility based business, and financial managers will need powerful reasons to buy insurance again from Primus.

Harvest Energy Trust: Not Like Other Refiners

Live, HTE has just issued convertibles, so the holders are selling shares short, and calls. They will run out of stock eventually, question is, will that be before or after oil prices turn down?

Harvest Energy Trust: Not Like Other Refiners

well results are out now, are they as strong as you xpected?
I see flat per-unit cash flow yoy, may be the comparison looks better in the face of 4q07, and of the pesimistic market expectations.

Old hedges are slowly consumed and replaces by better ones, bit by bit.

The 0.30 distribution monthly was confirmed , and 3.6 $C yearly seems sustainable now, and that makes the 23 dollar/unit very cheap. Even 29 would still be a multiple of 8!

Harvest Energy Trust: Not Like Other Refiners

What happened to the 1Q results, weren't they due on May 7?

No Reason for BofA - Countrywide Merger to Fail

I do have a position in CFC debt (not shares), so I'd like to share your confidence.
The problem is fear. Basically fear of finding that the losses on CFC portfolio finally exceed its bookvalue + reserves
No hard data point to such a shortfall sofar, but if panic spreads, people -BAC board- may prefer to pass on an opportunity rather than run some additional risk.
Ot the other hand, the deal is clever for BAC, and if they let it go, BAC may have to pay penalties, and some still cleverer private equity fund may finally find the courage to put a few billion to capture the leading mortgages issuer and keep it alive until better times return...

Making the Big Switch from Mutual Funds to ETFs

Take a look at PFK, as a substitute for your TIPS. You get a much higher yield, for the same duration, and the difference is a lot more than Prudential spread would justify.

Is It 1990 All Over Again?

Well S&P is @ 1350 already. Now if earnings fall to 80 and multiples to 13, that give a scaring 1040, is that yr view?