Seeking Alpha

stockcrashtestdummy

stockcrashtestdummy
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View stockcrashtestdummy's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • HP's Whitman Bludgeons Her Way Through Doubters And Into 2014 [View article]
    DELL may be private, but if they slash profitability, the new owners are not going to be amused. Unlike stockholders who can only grumble and at worst, sell out, these folks can cause all kinds of grief for Mike Dell and his plan.

    They could stop future investments as most of the new partners are looking to clean up the books, crank up returns to make the company look more attractive and flip DELL in 3 years. You really think those hedge funds are going to forsake ROI for a long term profitability that takes 5 or more years to get to?
    Mike Dell knows better. They do not make the numbers, 2 or 3 will get together and throw him to the curb and there is not a thing he can do about it.

    HP and Lenevo are not going away. In consumer and small business market, they all source from the same suppliers so there is not a lot of areas to lower prices (short of partner MS giving them a sweetheart deal on the OS license costs) without taking it in the shorts.

    The bigger issue is the response to lower demand for PCs. That affects all 3 of these companies. Meg's pushing engineering investment in the higher profit areas is the way to go. Just a different set of competitors.

    More importantly, no longer is the press talking about Mark Hurd and his dinner partner. Looks like HP has turned the corner due to Meg focusing on the basics.
    Nov 27 01:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Memo To Hewlett-Packard Bulls: You People Are Dead Wrong [View article]

    At least he didn't mention Mark Hurd alledgely dining B-grade porn stars or Autonomy costing too much. ;<)

    I suggest people watch the video from today's presentations to the investment community. They had answers to the tough questions by product family people have been asking of late,. Cloud competition, industry servers, lower pc sales, services, tablets, you name it. You can make your own opinion instead of relying in junk analysis like we have above.

    Terahealth has is correct.
    As people start to understand the cloud, they will learn that HP is well positioned with their storage, compute archetechure, and service offerings,. The big question is can they grow these new products faster than some of their older technologies wane. If they do, watch out, the stock price is going to skyrocket.

    Another area to look at is governance. Look at the BoD. There are darn few of the cementheads from just 12 months ago. Ditto the executive team. Meg has been housecleaning with a vengence.

    Disclosure: I have doubled my money on HPQ since Dec when lunkheads like this author wrote People's magazine articles instead of digging in and understanding where where HP is headed.
    Oct 9 10:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Civilian Gun Market Has Peaked; Downside Ahead [View article]
    have you been to a gun shop lately?

    After 4 months, I finally got a chance to stop by the private range I belong to last night. It was scary.
    The cupboards were bare. I mean BARE.
    I could only buy 50 rounds of 22lr ( I usually train with 300 a visit) They had a bit more .45 acp. ammo available for my 1911.
    After I finished shooting, I checked out their gun cases.
    They were so bare it was not funny.

    They had some revolvers, but zip for autos. Where they usually have 2-3 dozen 1911s from Kimber, Remington, S&W, Ruger and ParaOrdennce, they had 2 S&W 1911s. And the price was 300 bucks higher than 4 months ago. THey did have a decent selection of Glocks.

    THere is still a run to go. A lot of folks are looking at the slashing of services in places like Detroit or Trenton and are arming themselves.

    And the big play is females. My wife and her friends are all getting into gjuns. It is not just football women are learning about. Who cares about preppers? Such a small percentage, but you try to incite. If you take the time to listen to the analyst calls, you know the product mix is changing and making it more profitable for them.

    So you short all you want. I will keep my stakes in SWHC and RGR and I will laugh as you lose and lose and lose while thinking this has to crash the next month.
    Sep 11 09:30 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global PC shipments fell 13.9% Y/Y in Q1 to 76.9M units, per IDC. That surpasses Q4's 6.4% drop and Q3's 8.6% decline, and is steep even in light of IDC's recent commentary. IDC: "It seems clear that the Windows 8 (MSFT) launch not only didn’t provide a positive boost to the PC market, but appears to have slowed the market." H-P (HPQ) was the market's leader, but its share fell 200 bps Y/Y to 15.7%. #2 Lenovo (LNVGY.PK) saw its share rise 210 bps to 15.3%, and #3 Dell's rose 40 bps to 11.8%. Apple's (AAPL) U.S. share rose 60 bps to 10%, though U.S. Mac shipments fell 7.5% to 1.4M. [View news story]
    Microsoft messed up big time in the past 12 months. They made some bad assumptions:
    1. Customers were ok with a phone interface for their PCs. People want new functionality, but Win 3.1 should have taught them people want a way to see it in the old way (aka classic mode).
    2. Competing with your biggest customers (HP, Lenano, Dell) with their surface tablet and not thinking they were going to take exception to it was arrogance. Now all these companies are releasing Chromebooks, Linux tablets etc.
    3. They could take as long as they wanted and not do a great job quality testing before a new release. Win8 was way late. In the past, tough, you have no where else to go but MS. Now Apple and Google have changed that game.

    but....

    MS pumped the dog for sure on the enterprise refresh using Win8, but maybe a lot of you missed the message last week that in 12 months Vista is no longer supported.

    Corporations are not going to be able to hold their breath much longer. They have to have a supported IT strategy for their desktop/laptop folks as they cannot risk their operations going down. Most are not going to move to Win7 with Win8 out and they are not going to rewrite for Apples at this late stage, never mind having to lose all the investment they have made in desktop code.

    But Win8 has that stupid phone UI that is pissing folks off more than the new Office UIs. If they can get Blue out the door which makes it easy to hide the phone UI, they have a chance of getting back in the game.

    Either way, when is Gates going to cut his losses and fire Ballmer? His arrogance got them into this mess. Screw saving Africa. How about saving Microsoft Bill??? Time to pull a Steve Jobs and can that idiot CEO you crowned.

    And folks are going to be updating their corporate PCs before they replace their iPhone 4S for a iPhone 5 or 6. Same o/s, different size... Where is the ROI?

    Expect the numbers of PCs to reverse fast with blue (aka 8.1) as the corporations start their refresh. May be the last hurrah for PCs, but it will last 3-4 years if you watch technology life cycles.
    Apr 11 09:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Smith & Wesson: A Worst Case Scenario [View article]
    Haoleboy is spot on.

    While sporting rifles are flying off the shelves in panic buying which is unsustainable at current levels, the handguns are a different story because the demographics are changing with the introduction of women.

    I have 2 lanes scheduled at the range tonight. One for the wife and myself, the other for a friend and his wife. We are all old enough to be grand parents. My friend has been wanting to buy a handgun for 4 months but there is no stock available. I have been wanting to buy a S&W Shield for the wife, but cannot find one either. S&W has invested in automation and still cannot keep up.

    Every time I am at the range there are more and more women.
    This is a new untapped market. And they are not buying Rambo hand-me-downs. They want the something that fits their hands and is managable. That is a new market just waiting to be tapped and S&W seems to understand that, though not as well as some of their competitors. Just look at the ads in gun publications. Never see S&W marketing sporting rifles.

    So while the spike to level off, there is a good chance S&W can tap into a longer term new market.
    Feb 12 09:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Smith & Wesson Is A Buy [View article]
    Went to the range last night.
    Still no product on the shelves after 5 weeks.
    The only S&W guns available were a couple revolvers and some screwball guns (eg specialized 22 target shooting pistols with 9" barrels).

    Ditto most other brands. Only screwball stuff is available (40 cals, models with bad reps etc).

    Going to be an excellent quarter for the entire sector, but I Like to stay with the blue chips of those. Bought a bunch of RGR and SWHC 2 weeks ago and have made decent money already and impressed my stockbroker with this play). Cannot wait to see what happens after their announcements.

    Cannot wait to see the next stocks the pension funds decide to dump for PC reasons.. :<)
    Jan 30 08:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gun Control: How To Profit From Increased Demand [View article]
    Went to the indoor range I belong to last week.
    This is a toney joint, push taking classes, very clean, and its members drive BMWs, Jags etc. Not your camo covered yahoos in beater jacked up pickups.

    They usually have a huge selection of new brand name weapons and usually 4-5 of each. When I checked the display cases, they were just about bare. Only revolvers and lower grade semiautos left.

    I then started checking galleryofguns.com. They are a web site that ties FFL dealers together. Do a search on any semi auto pistol or AR and all you see is back order.

    People are buying semi autos left and right.
    G-hammer mentioned the S&W shield.
    It came out last April.
    I have been trying to get one for 9 months.
    Most lists are 40-50 long where they take names.

    SWHC and RGR are going to have great quarter.
    Just thank the PC folks at the pension funds for helping to give you a better purchase price.
    Jan 2 01:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Give Up On Hewlett-Packard [View article]
    HP has some issues, but the author is correct.

    Remember when Scott McNeally at Sun called the HP-Compaq merger "two garbage trucks colliding"? In the end, HP was still standing and integrated the 2 companies. Just took longer than expected by Wall Street and HP management.

    I look at the Autonomy merger the same way as it sucked up a large chunk of cash. It takes longer than expected to get these mega-mergers completed, but HP has proven they can do them successfully.

    The biggest issue has been management. Mark Hurd was needed for the 1st two years to trim their bloated ways, but being a 1 trick pony he just kept cutting past what was prudent and staving off the results by rebanding other's techology. Meg has a ways to go to turn this around.

    More importantly, most the bozos on the board have been replaced, or will be at the next annual meeting since they are not running again. The role of boards and the CEO has changed a great deal in the past 20 years. Hopefully these members know what they are (and are not) suppose to do.

    My final point is they have size. A big block V8 missing on 1 cylinder still has more power than a 4 banger pulling a load, though it may be running rough.

    The question you need to ask is do you think HP has the smarts and wherewithall to fix their mess? I do, as engineering companies have a way of figuring it out.

    Disclosure
    I am long on HPQ.
    Mar 5 08:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
8 Comments
12 Likes