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Chemist29

Chemist29
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  • Why You Shouldn't Always Trust Financial Websites' Numbers [View article]
    If you can't figure out from a financial statement in 5 minutes where the earnings are coming from, you probably shouldn't be buying stocks. Buy SPY.

    If you think investors pick stocks based on looking at a reported P/E ratio, you would be sorely mistaken. I mean, some do, but even the "professional, smart money" (oxymoron if I ever heard one) can do basic accounting
    Jan 1 02:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Won't the FCC Just Let the Internet Be? [View article]
    It's not completely clear to me how comcast, cox, etc. controlling what content is allowed to come through is good for the consumer. Every argument presented above is a simply theoretical one which we feel good talking about completely free market capitalism, which ignores the basic fact I typed above. The whole reason comcast and others dont want net neutrality is so you have to pay for their tv programming. This has nothing to do with government running the internet.

    Then again, we can go back 100 years ago when there was no FDA and people took poison, put it in a box, and said it cured disease. Because that's free market right there. (I'm not saying the FDA is perfect, because its not, but there is a very good reason for regulation. The private sector messes up, sometimes.)
    Dec 21 04:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chimera: Making RMBS Look Good [View article]
    I'm long CIM as well because I think its a great way to sit back and collect 17% in a risk/reward fashion, however I think its important to point out that a stock offering done above BV is not dilutive, but rather represents an accretion to book value. And if CIM can put the money to work quickly (need to feed those new hungry shares a dividend!) its not terrible and not dilutive at all. I dont remember off the top of my head what book value was but its about 3.3, so an offering at 3.9 is not really a terrible negative.

    With regards comparing agency backed MBS and non agency, I think its important to think of the duration and nature of the portfolios. Agency MBS are priced extremely high, I think over par at the moment and with the payments guaranteed, the only risk is interest rate risk. So when the economy/government/fed gives signs that interest rates go up, these guys will get crushed. And I'm not sure I'll be able to anticipate this before Mr. Market will. With CIM and the hire coupon and discount bonds, are much less sensitive (as those duration numbers pointed in the article suggest) and as the economy improves they can be written up as well. Although, if the economy turns south the credit risk is also a potential negative. Alright, enough rambling! long and strong CIM

    Also, I believe the issue of GAAP earnings vs. distributable earnings has been looked at and is beyond the scope of my knowledge, but there could be a modest cut in the dividend at some point in the future if I remember some articles. Oh well.
    Nov 18 05:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paragon Shipping: In-Depth Analysis for the September 2010 Quarter [View article]
    Good writeup! I got out of PRGN about 2 weeks ago (because the market was hot, and the drybulk index wasn't rebounding) So...why the long position? Do you believe the oversupply problem is not really a problem? I mean, theres a 5% dividend waiting right now which isn't bad, but as the charters expire they will be renewed at lower rates unless the drybulk rebounds, as I see it. Curious to know your thoughts!
    Nov 16 08:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apollo Investment: Quarterly Earnings Preview [View article]
    Yeah, the fees is a negative and the modest dividend cut which I sort of expect is probably a negative. I've made a lot of money in Apollo and I think it might be time to ring the register. I believe Solar Capital might be a better place to park the money! Their cost of capital is a bit higher but the dividend coverage is superb
    Oct 29 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ares Capital Raises Historic Thirty Year Notes [View article]
    Very interesting piece of news! I'm inclined to think of this as a good thing for ARCC. Does anyone know what their weighted average cost of debt would be now? Also, anyone know what sorts of spreads different asset classes are yielding? such as senior secured vs. subordinated etc.
    Oct 18 02:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • John Paulson Says to Buy Dividend Stocks and Houses, Sell Bonds [View article]
    People buying houses did not cause the bubble. People buying houses they could not afford and banks giving loans they had no business giving caused the crisis. Just saying.
    Sep 30 05:50 PM | 56 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Noble Corp.: Continued Gulf of Mexico Uncertainty Ahead [View article]
    Great writeup. On a fundamental and balance sheet basis I really like NE as well, and even though something like 15-20% of their exposure is Gulf of Mexico, "regulatory inaction" will pressure the other markets in which these operators drill, so its hard to say what a normalized earnings rate is. So while I believe NE is "cheap" on a valuation basis, I guess the current cash flows might not be sustainable?
    Sep 16 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Debt Does the S&P 500 Have? [View article]
    An increase by 58%? ouch haha. It is a good thing I just finished the CFA level 1 volume "financial reporting and analysis" so I have an idea of what you are referring to. I'm sure its a long task to go through line by line of GE's financial statements and convert the operating leases to finance leases, but how bad would it be for these guys?
    Aug 20 04:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasury Unlikely to Complete Citigroup Share Sale on Time [View article]
    Honestly, its not clear to me why the government is not doing private placements as well to large institutional investors. I read somewhere in an article that they have been approached by large investors wanting to do just such a thing, but I guess they prefer dumping 55 million a day into the market.
    Jul 25 06:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan and Citigroup Earnings Ring Memories of Lehman [View article]
    Thain is taking a lot of heat, and I agree shopping for office furniture that is ridiculously expensive was a stupid move. But, remember, Thain got what from bank of america? 29$/share? A hefty premium to its selling price, and far above its 0$ / share inherent value. So maybe not so bad for Thain huh :P
    Jul 19 01:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan and Citigroup Earnings Ring Memories of Lehman [View article]
    Yeah, its pretty frustrating. And then you have bank of america doing the same thing, but it was just an "error". I dont think anyone believes these tricks to reduce leverage at the end of a quarter were "errors"....
    Jul 15 02:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Buyout for Canada's Montney Gas Play: Who's Next? [View article]
    Great writeup! Always nice to see someone delve into the details of the canroys. Sounds like PGH (which I am long a decent amount in my US taxable account) is moving more towards NG instead of oil? Any thoughts on the natural gas market in general?
    Jul 14 02:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital Increases Revolver, Improves Terms [View article]
    Good analysis as always! What do you think of the slight deferment and definite decrease in the distribution? Seems to me it is roughly in line with NII and to be honest I'm sort of relieved. I almost felt PSEC was a US OIl and Gas Royalty trust distributing all its equity back to shareholders as its reserves run their natural course! Now that NII seems to be in line with a roughly .31 quarterly distribution hopefully they can properly put all their prepayments and return of capital back into their "robust pipeline" rather than back to shareholders, and just let us collect the interest!
    I'll look forward to your opinion! And in the meantime probably add shares on the inevitable drop on monday hah
    Jun 19 05:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can We Say Adios to Spain? [View article]
    Their soccer team just lost to Switzerland. 90 is more reasonable now ;)
    Jun 17 03:33 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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