John L.

19 Comments

    • Buy, Sell, or Hold Fertilizer Stocks: Agriculture Bust (Part II) [view article]
      I bought in close to the top and have seen major paper losses here. I appreciate all the discussion.

      I have to conclude though that while painful for me, that AG investments are really not "story" investments (i.e. some BS that Wall Street comes up with to sucker naive people into short-term plays) but that they have lasting and long-term significance.

      It really boils down to
      a. supply
      b. demand
      c. barriers to entry.

      While movement of short-term money is really just "noise" that distracts from the longer-term trends.

      Looking at the above
      a. supply - potash is limited in supply as is recognized from the discussion above

      b. demand - demand is increasing, this is not a "story", this is real, the world economy is creating more people who can afford to buy meat. To grow meat, takes grain, to grow grain requires potash and fertilizer.

      Ignore all the noise about soybeans needing less fertilizer and ethanol, these are missing the point.

      c. barriers to entry - Requires huge capital investments in equipment, land and as mentioned, very few places in the world are blessed with the abililty to produce.

      Need I say more.......painful short term......correction occurring......long term buy/hold
      Aug 17 01:55 PM
    • Wind's Our Future, but Natural Gas Is Now [view article]
      We just need an administration or organization(s) to combine forces and have the same collective vision to really make Pickens ideas a reality. There needs to be a real consensus here instead of all this silly arguing. This is a real chicken and egg scenario of infrastructure vs. the vehicles that use the infrastructure.

      Like any systems approach, it won't go anywhere unless some influential architects can sell it to the public possibly by doing a pilot first or by filling in needed market niches such that eventually the entire puzzle is done.

      Americans have a hard time cooperating in a team fashion as we are very individualistic. I would not be surprised if some Asian entrepreneurs take the lead here and pick the low lying fruit.

      In Minnesota for example, we have an Indian company that set up a plant near Pipestone where they are building wind turbines.       Aug 08 12:37 AM
    • Transocean Reports Solid Earnings, Time to Short? [view article]
      Article makes no sense to me, I am like others have mentioned more encouraged to buy long than to short. Aug 08 12:25 AM
    • Terex: Overlooked Bargain [view article]
      This is an infrastructure and mining play where most profits will be made in the developing countries.

      They make more than cranes, they make road making equipment, trucks used in mining operations, lift devices for utilities, frankly, they have a very diverse range of products.

      Probably are suffering from the credit crunch since customers need to borrow to buy their equipment. As this subsides, they should start growing again like crazy.

      Some folks have said they have the same potential as a Joy Global or a Bucyrus but they have a much more diversified market than these 2 equipment makers.       Jul 23 11:25 PM
    • Steel: The Top Is In Parts II, III [view article]
      Hey, looks like you forgot about all the "second Tier" cities that China is in the process of building right now. These are being built on a massive scale to shift population and production away from the large overpopulated cities.

      As China found out recently, it takes steel rebars to make a building that can stand for more than a few years. I don't think they will cut corners on these new buildings and so we will see steel demand be extremely strong.

      All this business about steel prices dropping because of increased production is a bunch of nonsense, don't believe it, and invest accordingly       Jun 30 11:14 PM
    • Where Are the Chinese Stock-Market Riots? [view article]
      I think the people in China are waiting to see what happens to the stock market as they get closer to the Olympics.

      It is expected that the stock market will move upward.

      Our company has a plant in China and I can tell you that the opposite may happen as the manufacturing plants are finding supplies getting tighter as the Olympics approaches and resources shift toward doing this right.

      Once investors find out about the negative impact on production, it could get nasty.       Jun 15 12:02 AM
    • Transocean: Cheap Stock, Worth a Look [view article]
      I agree, this is an outstanding buy, especiallly now. They took a small tumble recently so now is a great time to buy on this weakness.

      PE valuation is enormously cheap given the growth potential and the 2 year backlog.       Jun 09 09:48 PM
    • Crude Oil Prices: Bears Will Soon Win Out [view article]
      The best way to revolt is for all the readers to go out and buy a Toyota Corolla or any car that is dependable and gets over 30 mpg.

      This would cut our oil over-dependance dramatically and would cause the price of gas to drop enough such that all that there would be enough for everyone.

      Instead we have all the automaker lobbyists pushing for their high margin SUVs and VANs and no development at all on more economical autos. Detroit will go down the tubes unless they now make this huge paradigm shift to economy cares.

      Americans are beginning to "get it" now, I just sold my 92 Honda Accord and had about 15 people look at it, most were driving huge SUVs and VANs, they are all looking to save money but don't have a lot to spend since no one wants to buy their old VAN or SUV.

      OPEC and the oil producers will see demand continue to drop the longer oil prices remain high and then people like me and those who looked at my care will be encouraged to buy smaller economical cars if we don't have some madman driving an SUV tailgating us all the time.

      By the way, I bought a Pontiac Vibe, great car, has the Toyota Corolla engine and transmission, pretty reliable and it gets 34 mpg if you drive 60 mph.       May 27 12:40 AM
    • What's the Real Story With the Price of Crude Oil? [view article]
      Supply will eventually come into balance with demand. When that occurs, a lot of speculative excess will be driven out of the market, this will result in a correction and will burn a lot of the speculators like always happens during a bubble.

      Probably, recession fears will trigger this to occur. Recession will be much more likely with higher oil prices, so I would expect we will see a correction in the next 6 months for sure.       May 25 10:30 AM
    • What’s Driving Oil Higher? It’s the Dollar, Stupid! [view article]
      The US dollar has been dropping against all the worlds currencies because of interest rate cuts most recently but also because of lack of confidence by foreigners in the US economy and throw in trade deficit imbalance for good measure also.

      This is attributeable mainly to Americans living too much on credit and having no financial intelligence in being able to control their spending.

      As the author mentioned, not being on a gold standard results in a fiat currency which again gives the US dollar a foundation of sand.

      I really believe that there is strong demand for oil as well, this defies common sense with so many countries coming on line at once.

      Multiple factors all playing together.

      What will change this? : raising of interest rates, Americans living within their means, lending standards tightening up, in short all the things you and I would do to balance the budget but that need to be done on a national scale by government and individuals.

      It would be great if we could go back to a gold standard but there are too many greedy people benefiting from this at the expense of the consumer so I don't see this happening soon.

      To fight back, buy some ETFs that invest in gold, silver or oil (oil to avoid tax consequences)

      May 14 11:16 PM
    • Show Some Respect for Shipping Fundamentals [view article]
      NM and DSX are 2 fairly stable shippers. NM might be the better bet for growth May 10 08:49 PM
    • U.S. Recovery Could Push Oil Much Higher [view article]
      I think many writers make the situation too complicated. Here is a basic recap that summarizes what is going on.

      Oil prices are determined by supply/demand and can fluctuate based on perceptions of how this will change near-term. Supply is shrinking, demand is booming in spite of problems in the US economy.

      Compounding this of course is the fact that the US dollar has been dropping in real value (the price of gold is the best yardstick) since it went off the gold standard in 1973.

      There was a good article in seekingalpha that showed that the price of crude actually hasn't changed for the past 20 years based on how many oz of gold it would take to purchase one barrel. Sorry, I can't find the link       May 06 10:28 PM
    • Tibetan Unrest and Economic Implications: 'Nancy Pelosi's War' [view article]
      The Tibetan never wanted the Chinese ruling their country. China for some reason decided that they wanted to colonize this poor country with few natural resources even though they had a Communist revolution that was inspired in part by the desire to shake of European style colonialism.

      It all goes to prove that when a country becomes powerful, they are going to do stupid things that don't make any sense to anyone and somehow they convince the pubic that it is the "right" thing. Then, they are afraid to change course when things don't go as planned.

      The US in Iraq is another example of this stupidity. Economically, we will never see any payback from this war and it is a major reason why the US economy is sinking since the gov't needs to print money to pay for men, materials and machinery to continue this war.

      I am sure China feels the same way about Tibet. Luckily for them, the "Tibetan War" is not as costly for them as the Iraq war for China, otherwise China would have pulled out of Tibet a long time ago.       Mar 26 11:37 PM
    • World Grain Markets at a Critical Point [view article]
      Based on the authors analysis of weather patterns, my conclusion is to run right out and do nothing. The weather changes all the time and so does the stock market and both are unpredictable. Mar 25 09:14 PM
    • Investing In Russia: An Interview With Pharos' Peter Halloran [view article]
      India has better growth potential being more democratic with more highly motivated and educated people. Russia is fraught with too many political risks with Putin clamping down on freedom of the press and silencing any opponents by whatever means. How can an economy truly develop when the population cannot exchange ideas freely?? Mar 12 10:33 PM
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