John L.'s Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/155064/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/89942-buy-sell-or-hold-fertilizer-stocks-agriculture-bust-part-ii?source=feed#comment-232480 232480
I have to conclude though that while painful for me, that AG investments are really not "story" investments (i.e. some BS that Wall Street comes up with to sucker naive people into short-term plays) but that they have lasting and long-term significance.

It really boils down to
a. supply
b. demand
c. barriers to entry.

While movement of short-term money is really just "noise" that distracts from the longer-term trends.

Looking at the above
a. supply - potash is limited in supply as is recognized from the discussion above

b. demand - demand is increasing, this is not a "story", this is real, the world economy is creating more people who can afford to buy meat. To grow meat, takes grain, to grow grain requires potash and fertilizer.

Ignore all the noise about soybeans needing less fertilizer and ethanol, these are missing the point.

c. barriers to entry - Requires huge capital investments in equipment, land and as mentioned, very few places in the world are blessed with the abililty to produce.

Need I say more.......painful short term......correction occurring......long term buy/hold
]]> Sun, 17 Aug 2008 13:55:52 -0400
I have to conclude though that while painful for me, that AG investments are really not "story" investments (i.e. some BS that Wall Street comes up with to sucker naive people into short-term plays) but that they have lasting and long-term significance.

It really boils down to
a. supply
b. demand
c. barriers to entry.

While movement of short-term money is really just "noise" that distracts from the longer-term trends.

Looking at the above
a. supply - potash is limited in supply as is recognized from the discussion above

b. demand - demand is increasing, this is not a "story", this is real, the world economy is creating more people who can afford to buy meat. To grow meat, takes grain, to grow grain requires potash and fertilizer.

Ignore all the noise about soybeans needing less fertilizer and ethanol, these are missing the point.

c. barriers to entry - Requires huge capital investments in equipment, land and as mentioned, very few places in the world are blessed with the abililty to produce.

Need I say more.......painful short term......correction occurring......long term buy/hold
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89703-wind-s-our-future-but-natural-gas-is-now?source=feed#comment-225685 225685
Like any systems approach, it won't go anywhere unless some influential architects can sell it to the public possibly by doing a pilot first or by filling in needed market niches such that eventually the entire puzzle is done.

Americans have a hard time cooperating in a team fashion as we are very individualistic. I would not be surprised if some Asian entrepreneurs take the lead here and pick the low lying fruit.

In Minnesota for example, we have an Indian company that set up a plant near Pipestone where they are building wind turbines. ]]> Fri, 08 Aug 2008 00:37:47 -0400
Like any systems approach, it won't go anywhere unless some influential architects can sell it to the public possibly by doing a pilot first or by filling in needed market niches such that eventually the entire puzzle is done.

Americans have a hard time cooperating in a team fashion as we are very individualistic. I would not be surprised if some Asian entrepreneurs take the lead here and pick the low lying fruit.

In Minnesota for example, we have an Indian company that set up a plant near Pipestone where they are building wind turbines. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89749-transocean-reports-solid-earnings-time-to-short?source=feed#comment-225680 225680 Fri, 08 Aug 2008 00:25:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/86657-terex-overlooked-bargain?source=feed#comment-212912 212912
They make more than cranes, they make road making equipment, trucks used in mining operations, lift devices for utilities, frankly, they have a very diverse range of products.

Probably are suffering from the credit crunch since customers need to borrow to buy their equipment. As this subsides, they should start growing again like crazy.

Some folks have said they have the same potential as a Joy Global or a Bucyrus but they have a much more diversified market than these 2 equipment makers.]]> Wed, 23 Jul 2008 23:25:30 -0400
They make more than cranes, they make road making equipment, trucks used in mining operations, lift devices for utilities, frankly, they have a very diverse range of products.

Probably are suffering from the credit crunch since customers need to borrow to buy their equipment. As this subsides, they should start growing again like crazy.

Some folks have said they have the same potential as a Joy Global or a Bucyrus but they have a much more diversified market than these 2 equipment makers.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83151-steel-the-top-is-in-parts-ii-iii?source=feed#comment-196313 196313
As China found out recently, it takes steel rebars to make a building that can stand for more than a few years. I don't think they will cut corners on these new buildings and so we will see steel demand be extremely strong.

All this business about steel prices dropping because of increased production is a bunch of nonsense, don't believe it, and invest accordingly]]> Mon, 30 Jun 2008 23:14:34 -0400
As China found out recently, it takes steel rebars to make a building that can stand for more than a few years. I don't think they will cut corners on these new buildings and so we will see steel demand be extremely strong.

All this business about steel prices dropping because of increased production is a bunch of nonsense, don't believe it, and invest accordingly]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80953-where-are-the-chinese-stock-market-riots?source=feed#comment-185717 185717
It is expected that the stock market will move upward.

Our company has a plant in China and I can tell you that the opposite may happen as the manufacturing plants are finding supplies getting tighter as the Olympics approaches and resources shift toward doing this right.

Once investors find out about the negative impact on production, it could get nasty.]]> Sun, 15 Jun 2008 00:02:32 -0400
It is expected that the stock market will move upward.

Our company has a plant in China and I can tell you that the opposite may happen as the manufacturing plants are finding supplies getting tighter as the Olympics approaches and resources shift toward doing this right.

Once investors find out about the negative impact on production, it could get nasty.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80582-transocean-cheap-stock-worth-a-look?source=feed#comment-182170 182170
PE valuation is enormously cheap given the growth potential and the 2 year backlog.]]> Mon, 09 Jun 2008 21:48:39 -0400
PE valuation is enormously cheap given the growth potential and the 2 year backlog.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78798-crude-oil-prices-bears-will-soon-win-out?source=feed#comment-174267 174267
This would cut our oil over-dependance dramatically and would cause the price of gas to drop enough such that all that there would be enough for everyone.

Instead we have all the automaker lobbyists pushing for their high margin SUVs and VANs and no development at all on more economical autos. Detroit will go down the tubes unless they now make this huge paradigm shift to economy cares.

Americans are beginning to "get it" now, I just sold my 92 Honda Accord and had about 15 people look at it, most were driving huge SUVs and VANs, they are all looking to save money but don't have a lot to spend since no one wants to buy their old VAN or SUV.

OPEC and the oil producers will see demand continue to drop the longer oil prices remain high and then people like me and those who looked at my care will be encouraged to buy smaller economical cars if we don't have some madman driving an SUV tailgating us all the time.

By the way, I bought a Pontiac Vibe, great car, has the Toyota Corolla engine and transmission, pretty reliable and it gets 34 mpg if you drive 60 mph.]]> Tue, 27 May 2008 00:40:21 -0400
This would cut our oil over-dependance dramatically and would cause the price of gas to drop enough such that all that there would be enough for everyone.

Instead we have all the automaker lobbyists pushing for their high margin SUVs and VANs and no development at all on more economical autos. Detroit will go down the tubes unless they now make this huge paradigm shift to economy cares.

Americans are beginning to "get it" now, I just sold my 92 Honda Accord and had about 15 people look at it, most were driving huge SUVs and VANs, they are all looking to save money but don't have a lot to spend since no one wants to buy their old VAN or SUV.

OPEC and the oil producers will see demand continue to drop the longer oil prices remain high and then people like me and those who looked at my care will be encouraged to buy smaller economical cars if we don't have some madman driving an SUV tailgating us all the time.

By the way, I bought a Pontiac Vibe, great car, has the Toyota Corolla engine and transmission, pretty reliable and it gets 34 mpg if you drive 60 mph.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78749-what-s-the-real-story-with-the-price-of-crude-oil?source=feed#comment-173490 173490
Probably, recession fears will trigger this to occur. Recession will be much more likely with higher oil prices, so I would expect we will see a correction in the next 6 months for sure. ]]> Sun, 25 May 2008 10:30:46 -0400
Probably, recession fears will trigger this to occur. Recession will be much more likely with higher oil prices, so I would expect we will see a correction in the next 6 months for sure. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77196-whats-driving-oil-higher-its-the-dollar-stupid?source=feed#comment-167808 167808
This is attributeable mainly to Americans living too much on credit and having no financial intelligence in being able to control their spending.

As the author mentioned, not being on a gold standard results in a fiat currency which again gives the US dollar a foundation of sand.

I really believe that there is strong demand for oil as well, this defies common sense with so many countries coming on line at once.

Multiple factors all playing together.

What will change this? : raising of interest rates, Americans living within their means, lending standards tightening up, in short all the things you and I would do to balance the budget but that need to be done on a national scale by government and individuals.

It would be great if we could go back to a gold standard but there are too many greedy people benefiting from this at the expense of the consumer so I don't see this happening soon.

To fight back, buy some ETFs that invest in gold, silver or oil (oil to avoid tax consequences)

]]> Wed, 14 May 2008 23:16:50 -0400
This is attributeable mainly to Americans living too much on credit and having no financial intelligence in being able to control their spending.

As the author mentioned, not being on a gold standard results in a fiat currency which again gives the US dollar a foundation of sand.

I really believe that there is strong demand for oil as well, this defies common sense with so many countries coming on line at once.

Multiple factors all playing together.

What will change this? : raising of interest rates, Americans living within their means, lending standards tightening up, in short all the things you and I would do to balance the budget but that need to be done on a national scale by government and individuals.

It would be great if we could go back to a gold standard but there are too many greedy people benefiting from this at the expense of the consumer so I don't see this happening soon.

To fight back, buy some ETFs that invest in gold, silver or oil (oil to avoid tax consequences)

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/76367-show-some-respect-for-shipping-fundamentals?source=feed#comment-165613 165613 Sat, 10 May 2008 20:49:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/75656-u-s-recovery-could-push-oil-much-higher?source=feed#comment-163083 163083
Oil prices are determined by supply/demand and can fluctuate based on perceptions of how this will change near-term. Supply is shrinking, demand is booming in spite of problems in the US economy.

Compounding this of course is the fact that the US dollar has been dropping in real value (the price of gold is the best yardstick) since it went off the gold standard in 1973.

There was a good article in seekingalpha that showed that the price of crude actually hasn't changed for the past 20 years based on how many oz of gold it would take to purchase one barrel. Sorry, I can't find the link]]> Tue, 06 May 2008 22:28:35 -0400
Oil prices are determined by supply/demand and can fluctuate based on perceptions of how this will change near-term. Supply is shrinking, demand is booming in spite of problems in the US economy.

Compounding this of course is the fact that the US dollar has been dropping in real value (the price of gold is the best yardstick) since it went off the gold standard in 1973.

There was a good article in seekingalpha that showed that the price of crude actually hasn't changed for the past 20 years based on how many oz of gold it would take to purchase one barrel. Sorry, I can't find the link]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70062-tibetan-unrest-and-economic-implications-nancy-pelosi-s-war?source=feed#comment-132190 132190
It all goes to prove that when a country becomes powerful, they are going to do stupid things that don't make any sense to anyone and somehow they convince the pubic that it is the "right" thing. Then, they are afraid to change course when things don't go as planned.

The US in Iraq is another example of this stupidity. Economically, we will never see any payback from this war and it is a major reason why the US economy is sinking since the gov't needs to print money to pay for men, materials and machinery to continue this war.

I am sure China feels the same way about Tibet. Luckily for them, the "Tibetan War" is not as costly for them as the Iraq war for China, otherwise China would have pulled out of Tibet a long time ago.]]> Wed, 26 Mar 2008 23:37:41 -0400
It all goes to prove that when a country becomes powerful, they are going to do stupid things that don't make any sense to anyone and somehow they convince the pubic that it is the "right" thing. Then, they are afraid to change course when things don't go as planned.

The US in Iraq is another example of this stupidity. Economically, we will never see any payback from this war and it is a major reason why the US economy is sinking since the gov't needs to print money to pay for men, materials and machinery to continue this war.

I am sure China feels the same way about Tibet. Luckily for them, the "Tibetan War" is not as costly for them as the Iraq war for China, otherwise China would have pulled out of Tibet a long time ago.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/69874-world-grain-markets-at-a-critical-point?source=feed#comment-131490 131490 Tue, 25 Mar 2008 21:14:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/68271-investing-in-russia-an-interview-with-pharos-peter-halloran?source=feed#comment-125800 125800 Wed, 12 Mar 2008 22:33:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/67782-jane-jacobs-on-why-china-and-india-will-continue-to-grow?source=feed#comment-124952 124952 Tue, 11 Mar 2008 00:32:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/64190-large-cap-natural-gas-an-investment-in-the-ultimate-alternative-energy?source=feed#comment-120507 120507 Fri, 29 Feb 2008 00:33:10 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/60755-natural-gas-services-now-you-re-cooking?source=feed#comment-118140 118140
Also, the oil sands up in Canada, you know, where the oil reserves equal Saudi Arabia, guess how the oil is removed, they heat up the sand with Natural Gas to separate it out, this will drive up demand for Natural Gas also as the price of oil increases.]]> Sat, 23 Feb 2008 20:55:11 -0500
Also, the oil sands up in Canada, you know, where the oil reserves equal Saudi Arabia, guess how the oil is removed, they heat up the sand with Natural Gas to separate it out, this will drive up demand for Natural Gas also as the price of oil increases.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/65670-oil-and-natural-gas-will-decouple-big-time?source=feed#comment-118069 118069 Sat, 23 Feb 2008 14:48:06 -0500