John L.

Buy, Sell, or Hold Fertilizer Stocks: Agriculture Bust (Part II)

I bought in close to the top and have seen major paper losses here. I appreciate all the discussion.

I have to conclude though that while painful for me, that AG investments are really not "story" investments (i.e. some BS that Wall Street comes up with to sucker naive people into short-term plays) but that they have lasting and long-term significance.

It really boils down to
a. supply
b. demand
c. barriers to entry.

While movement of short-term money is really just "noise" that distracts from the longer-term trends.

Looking at the above
a. supply - potash is limited in supply as is recognized from the discussion above

b. demand - demand is increasing, this is not a "story", this is real, the world economy is creating more people who can afford to buy meat. To grow meat, takes grain, to grow grain requires potash and fertilizer.

Ignore all the noise about soybeans needing less fertilizer and ethanol, these are missing the point.

c. barriers to entry - Requires huge capital investments in equipment, land and as mentioned, very few places in the world are blessed with the abililty to produce.

Need I say more.......painful short term......correction occurring......long term buy/hold