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30 Comments

    • Where's the Bottom? Still Anybody's Guess [view article]
      GREEDY CROOKS SHOULD BE PUT IN JAIL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!... Sep 24 09:38 AM
    • Where's the Bottom? Still Anybody's Guess [view article]
      bottom is 8500 for DOW. Arrest PAULSON..he is a CROOK. Arrest BUFFETT. he is another crook Sep 24 09:37 AM
    • Call the Treasury's Bluff [view article]
      paulson playing scare tactics so he can save his wall st buddies. And now we gotta pay. Stand up and fight Paulson Sep 24 09:23 AM
    • Call the Treasury's Bluff [view article]
      paulson is a crook
      Sep 24 09:22 AM
    • Buffett Enters the Fray [view article]
      wishful thinking. bailout will be delayed . dow will be 8k soon Sep 24 05:36 AM
    • It's a Bull Market in Government Intervention [view article]
      but i guess thats far better than the so called worse alternative..

      letting wall st fat cats at goldman sachs and morgan lose their jobs and bonuses...       Sep 20 11:59 PM
    • It's a Bull Market in Government Intervention [view article]
      US$700bn bailout will mean

      US taxes will double, Dollar falls, the consumer will die, economy will be in depression.       Sep 20 11:50 PM
    • Lehman Is Just the Thin Edge of the Wedge [view article]
      let LEH go bust and others follow.. until we have a clearout, we cant have a recovery. Sep 14 09:13 AM
    • Let Lehman Fail [view article]
      Hank should be executed by firing squad. He is making the average joe pay for the Wall St fat cats, ferraris and penthouses. Sep 12 11:08 PM
    • Bull or Bear Market? [view article]
      I agree with JVC 33. Like '73-74, this is one of those bear rallies. In fact the Dow was in bear territory until 1982 (9 years later), when it began a new bull runs. There are many false alarms, (misperceived bottoms), and this is just one of them. Not to say you can't make money from bear rallies, you can if you are "lucky" enough to catch the bottom. But usually for everytime you do, you may find yourself catching a falling knife, and unless you have strict stop loss discipline, you maybe looking at a big loss. I prefer to stay on the sidelines, until the risk/reward is more favourable. Aug 09 12:48 AM
    • Bill Miller on This Tough Market [view article]
      The doom and gloomers are out because it is FACT that things are so bad. Thinking that you are a SMART ALEC and buying on these signals will make not make you money. If it walks like a duck, talks like a duck it is a duck. Aug 02 11:01 PM
    • Bill Miller on This Tough Market [view article]
      I guess Bill never read this WSJ article last week

      No sooner had financial stocks gotten up off the mat than poor existing-home sales body-slammed them.
      The abrupt halt Thursday to the relief rally that started last week underscored how little confidence investors have in the sector. Many feel they can't get a handle on bank balance sheets.
      Details that emerged earlier this week from Bank of America's purchase of Countrywide Financial help explain why that is the case. The deal's numbers show that big losses could still lurk in banks' closets.
      If so, their loan portfolios are worth far less than the stated values, and reserves taken against possible losses are inadequate. And if bank capital is overstated, firms could again be forced into dilutive capital raising.
      Turn to Countrywide -- and the huge amount by which Bank of America wrote down its assets. In second-quarter results out earlier this week, Bank of America said Countrywide's equity available to common stockholders, or its net worth, on a market-value basis at June 30 was just $100 million.
      To put that in perspective, Countrywide had $172 billion in assets at the end of June. Plus, Bank of America paid $4.1 billion for the firm, once the country's biggest mortgage lender.
      How could Countrywide's net worth be just $100 million? When a financial firm is acquired, the purchaser applies market values to all its assets and liabilities. Banks normally hold a big portion of their loans at historical cost with a reserve set aside for potential losses.
      At Countrywide, this marking to market of its loan portfolio resulted in a $9 billion hit, which was on top of about $5 billion in reserves. This, along with some offsetting items, took common equity to $100 million from $8.4 billion.
      The new market value was equivalent to about a 15% average mark on the firm's nearly $100 billion loan portfolio, David Hendler, an analyst at CreditSights, said in a research note. The mark was driven by low market values for home-equity, option-adjustable-rate mortgages and subprime assets.
      Granted, such a mark is a point-in-time estimate based on all the assets being sold. In reality, banks offset credit losses over time with earnings. And most big banks wouldn't face anywhere near as severe a market-value hit.
      Still, the reduction in the value of Countrywide's loans raises the question of what would happen to other banks if they similarly marked loan portfolios to prices they could fetch if sold in the market today. Typically, banks create reserves equal to 1.5% to 3% of those portfolios, but the prices applied to Countrywide's loans show those set-asides could be too low.
      Applying a mark of 5% -- more aggressive, but still well below Countrywide's -- at Citigroup, J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo, Wachovia, Washington Mutual and Bank of America results in 10% to 30% reductions in the banks' stated book values. Push the mark to 7.5% and book values are 20% to 50% below stated levels.
      "That is why you see so many banks trading at such a discount to book value," says Craig Emrick, a bank analyst at Moody's Investors Service.
      That explains why many investors didn't think share prices were irrationally low in the beginning of July. It also shows why markets could again plumb those lows if bank losses exceed current expectation
      Aug 02 07:04 AM
    • Bill Miller on This Tough Market [view article]
      Discipline trumps conviction. Don't fight the market. I would rather keep my cash for a more opportune moment than suffer the psychological water torture of holding on or adding to losing positions. Yes, stocks do eventually come back, but "eventually" is anyone's guess (tell that to Japanese investors who've been underwater for so many years). Preserve capital. Value investors are infatuated with buying stocks they think are bargains. However bargains may become even cheaper. Stop trying to pick bottoms. You can still make money arriving at the party late, however if you arrrive early it may be long hard wait. Miss the first 20% of the upside to be sure. If it is the beginning of the bull run, then missing the first year of gains is no big deal, bull markets usually last fo 3-4 years. Dont be caught in the trap of buying today's leaders which may become tommorrow's laggards. When I met Mr. Buffett, he told me it is much harder to make the returns he did, 40 years ago because information sources are so much more efficient. Where now can you really find stocks trading with large margins of safety?
      Value investors hate to concede defeat. As the old adage goes.."Cut your losses and let you profits run". Losers average losers.       Aug 02 01:50 AM
    • Do You Have the Guts to Buy? [view article]
      H O P E is a four letter word. Jul 29 11:03 AM
    • Housing: No Bottom Yet in Sight [view article]
      good article and good comments
      Jul 28 09:46 PM
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