apppro

Economic Data Showing Signs of Negative Trends

This system did not collapse because of the over valued real estate market. You are right it was (and in some areas still is) over valued, but that didn't bring the financial system down. We've been thru these housing boom and busts before and never did they lead to this depth of financial destruction and despair. Taking down Ambac then Bear then WAMU then Lehmans is what destroyed us. These companies could have survived the real estate debacle, but they could not survive the destruction of the confidence they needed to go on. Real estate may have been the reason things had issues, BUT they were not the CAUSE of this financial mess.
And as far as the over leverage part of your argument - YES I AGREE, but that leverage did NOT have to be taken out of the system overnight as demanded by those very short sellers whom you seem to glorify.
Place the blame where it belongs - not where you want it to be.


On Nov 01 02:17 PM bobdark wrote:

> You blame shorts for the market correction? You think it is realistic
> that people can borrow beyond their means to repay? You think it
> is realistic that real estate prices should go up 20% every year?
> If anybody should be angry it should be the savers who are now watching
> their hard-earned savings get flushed down the government toilet
> by the huge tax burden in order to bail out people who were rediculously
> irresponsible and presumed that they were entitled to wealth through
> speculation instead of the old-fashioned way of working and saving.
>
>
> The bottom line is that this crisis was caused by overleverage and
> rediculous real estate speculation, whether it was pointed out by
> shorts or scholars or not, the system had to collapse. Just be glad
> the shorts were there to buffer the downside, otherwise it would
> have been much worse. In fact, next time around, it will be much
> worse, because America still has not learned the lesson, that it
> is wrong to lie and cheat your way to achieve a lifestyle that is
> beyond a level of income required to sustain it and that eventually
> there are consequences. Some day, there won't be any money left to
> bail out all the irresponsible people unless the government simply
> decides to nationalize everything and eliminate the middle class.
>

What's the Fair Value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average?

<<So why would any reasonable investor want the government to have further sway in their financial well being?>>

Our government screws everything up, that is for sure. However, we must deter or even stop all this short term trading and the mentality behind it. It produces NOTHING and saps the financial strength out of our economy. Without regulating anything, except hopefully our behavior, decreasing tax rates to promote long term investing and vice versa - we can only think that it would help reduce the insanity. The IRS got Capone, let them go after the other traders/traitors.

On Nov 01 09:44 AM Walt17 wrote:

> I do not agree with that!
>
> Your suggestion implies that you want the government to control how
> we invest. Our government has not given me any reason to believe
> that letting them dictate my trading strategies would be to my best
> interest.
>
> Whether you’re a Republican or Democratic - What must end is the
> notion that government can make everything better. They have repeatedly
> demonstrated an inability to do that. So why would any reasonable
> investor want the government to have further sway in their financial
> well being?
>

Economic Data Showing Signs of Negative Trends

A lot of micros make up a macro. :-)


On Nov 01 12:10 PM thotdoc wrote:

> I love it. A macro economics discussion ends up in a conversation
> about what is going on in one Macy's. No wonder many people have
> difficulty making decisions about how to invest.

Economic Data Showing Signs of Negative Trends

Old Trader,

Can only speak for what I see, but according to the media and their own figures, storewide sales are up. I have to admit that people are coming in for sales, but that is to be expected and Macy's knows it. We have trained the U.S. consumer to wait for a sale, so like Pavlov's dogs they buy only as soon as someone rings the sales bell.

We forced everyone to take out a lot of leverage out of our system and we fired a lot of people in the process. Those that are lucky enough to still be at work want to spend and shop. We allowed a few pundits and short sellers to screw the rest. As soon as we realize this and allow business to get back to business, we'll all be better off. Remember: all that leverage that those shorts and scholars wanted us to eliminate - only became bad when all those shorts and scholars shoved down our throats that it was bad. (Boy am I going to get yelled at for that comment!)


On Nov 01 09:55 AM Old Trader wrote:

> apppro,
>
> I'm glad to hear things are going well at your particular location,
> but a couple of questions.
>
> First, I wonder how representative your location is? For example,
> here in Chicago, Macy's acquisition of Marshall Fields has not gone
> very well.
>
> Second, what SORT of merchandise is flying off of the shelves? What
> I've heard from various retail analysts is that the consumer is being
> VERY selective in where/how they're spending their dollars. "Value
> priced" items are doing relatively well....the rest, not so much.
>
>
> Thanks for providing a "worm's eye" view!
>
> On Nov 01 09:44 AM apppro wrote:

Economic Data Showing Signs of Negative Trends

On this all I can say is that I freelance at Macy's for a group of vendors overseeing their merchandise. (Just can't get retail out of my blood!) THE STORE IS A MADHOUSE ALMOST EVERYDAY! Their sales are consistently up and the merchandise is flying off the shelves. I even go into the stockrooms and shelves are lean & tight.

Bad holiday season - not from this store's perspective. But if we keep telling everyone not to shop because Armageddon 2 is coming - what do you think will happen?


On Nov 01 08:58 AM Old Trader wrote:

> Steve,
>
> As always, a nice summation of data that really matters. As you point
> out, adding insult to injury, everything I've heard/read to date,
> points to a bleak holiday retail season, with the most optimistic
> reports calling for it to be "flat".

Economic Data Showing Signs of Negative Trends

Steve you always give very complete and complex data to support your thesis. I can only comment by adding this quote from my recent blog:
<<You may ask, “Why should I care? I’m not in the market or I own mutual funds, why should this matter to me?” It matters because you may be one of those lucky people who still has a job, or one of those still trying to find one... all these swings and angst are not healthy. They make everyone so full of fear and uncertainty that no one can muster up the desire to spend, invest, invent, inspire, etc. And don’t make the mistake of thinking that CEO’s of big companies are any different. I told you before, you keep bashing someone over the head over and over; sooner or later they will break! This is especially true of small businesses, the major driver of employment in the U.S. Would YOU spend thousands or go into debt to start a new business if every 5-minutes someone else is telling you that everything will crash in the next 10-minutes? I don’t think so!>>

It is really impossible to rationalize or even justify today's market with facts. As a mathematician by heart and a compulsive anal personality - I do love facts, but leaving out emotions makes all the facts in the world meaningless. Fear & greed are far greater powers then facts. We allowed a few to scare the crap out of ourselves over a year ago, through their abuse of M2M and total lack of SEC regulation. We allowed them to destroy our confidence in our markets - and in ourselves. If we don't change our own view of the markets and our society in general will we not survive. We must take this short-term mentality we have fostered and smash it into oblivion. A nation is not built over 3 weekends, but we sure allowed a few to almost destroy it over that same period of time.

Q4 Outlook: Real Life Stress Tests Begin

Those somewhat 'pre-arranged' bankruptcies appear more to be the process by which we now allow vultures to swoop in and devour the carcasses of what used to be viable companies. The fact that Carl Ichann is trying to pick the bones of CIT at the end is just proof of our collective ignorance and their collective greed. Where was he 10 months ago when Pimco and GS were placing the nails in CIT's coffin?
Has anyone given any thought to how all this REALLY started? Oh yeah, I forgot > some bad housing and loans - BS!

What's the Fair Value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average?

What happened this week is just another and perhaps best/final case into why we must stop this short-term option trader/traitor mentality & trading. I’ll be the first to admit that maybe the DOW and S&P have as some have complained, “Gone too far in too short a period of time!” Without going back to my original argument that they’re basing that moronic statement on a level we should have NEVER been at in the 1st place, let’s just say that maybe the markets have gone a little higher then maybe their actual worth is based on. As to whether the DOW or other indices are fairly valued, I give your opinion above worth noting.

For me I take a far longer view. We’ve taken out all the added fluff that they say was added with all that leverage since 2004, and actually we’re even back to 1999 levels. Fair? Doesn’t sound fair to me, but that’s what we allowed to be done.

Just look at this past week’s chart of JPM Chase.

finance.yahoo.com/echa...;range=5d;indicator=vo...

Monday and Tuesday were ok and non-events on no news. On Wednesday the entire market sold off at the open and never recovered. The news again was really a non-event, but some media pundits & traders/traitors brought back that ‘double deep’ crappola and fear spread throughout. Thursday reality set back in when GREAT GDP and just ok employment #’s came out.. the markets recovered, but those traders/traitors couldn’t let it go. CNBS had a parade of naysayer pundits on the show Friday morning and when basically so-so spending and income numbers came out at 8:30 am (These numbers were exactly as expected and should have been a non-event.) the short-term option traders/traitors had worked everybody up into a sell-off mode and things never looked back. 250 points down on the DOW and major levels breached. It was a pure disgrace. They tried to blame it on the dollar, on the consumer, on anything they could grab a hold of; but when it comes down to it, the sell-off was a well orchestrated, end-of-the-month options traders/traitors manipulated disaster.

You may ask, “Why should I care? I’m not in the market or I own mutual funds, why should this matter to me?” It matters because you may be one of those lucky people who still has a job, or one of those still trying to find one... all these swings and angst are not healthy. They make everyone so full of fear and uncertainty that no one can muster up the desire to spend, invest, invent, inspire, etc. And don’t make the mistake of thinking that CEO’s of big companies are any different. I told you before, you keep bashing someone over the head over and over; sooner or later they will break! This is especially true of small businesses, the major driver of employment in the U.S. Would YOU spend thousands or go into debt to start a new business if every 5-minutes someone else is telling you that everything will crash in the next 10-minutes? I don’t think so!

Whether you’re a Republican or Democratic, whether you’re a capitalist or socialist, whether you’re a ying or a yang; we MUST ALL start to agree upon ONE THING and that is this short-term mentality and trading MUST END!

STOP THE INSANITY NOW!

Revised Tax Rules:

1. Capital gains under <6 months - 55% tax on capital gains
2. Capital gains 6 > 12 months - 45% tax on capital gains
3. Capital gains 1 > 2 years - 35% tax on capital gains
4. Capital gains 2 > 5 years - 18% tax on capital gains
5. Capital gains 5+ years - 5% tax on capital gains
6. Most critical of all — Institute a capital gains tax of 55% on ALL short sales not directly tied to a long buy by a licensed hedge fund. I'm tired of paying for the pure shorts 3rd vacation home.

Liberals and Conservatives Agree: Proposed Oversight Bill Will Make Things Worse

Unfortunately, this administration will implode just like our markets did.


On Oct 30 07:59 AM grbn wrote:

> despite the perceived "risk" to the economy, we cannot give a corrupt
> government committed to wealth redistribution, income equity, and
> social change more power. there are no checks and balances in washington.

Liberals and Conservatives Agree: Proposed Oversight Bill Will Make Things Worse

There are few, if any ways to regulate people's behavior. If someone is hell bent on doing something they'll find a way. We accused our banking CEO's of doing the wrong thing, but, when it comes down to it they were (like Al Capone), "Just giving the people what they wanted."

So how do we fix out markets? I have always realized that the easiest way to change a person's behavior is to GET THEM WERE IT HURTS - THEIR WALLETS! Change our tax laws to reward LONG-term investing. Most of our current issues are cause by the short-term option trader/traitor mentality that we have fostered.

Revised Tax Rules:

1. Capital gains under <6 months - 55% tax on capital gains
2. Capital gains 6 > 12 months - 45% tax on capital gains
3. Capital gains 1 > 2 years - 35% tax on capital gains
4. Capital gains 2 > 5 years - 18% tax on capital gains
5. Capital gains 5+ years - 5% tax on capital gains
6. Most critical of all — Institute a capital gains tax of 55% on ALL short sales not directly tied to a long buy by a licensed hedge fund. I'm tired of paying for the pure shorts 3rd vacation home.

We must also go back to our colleges and universities and ask why they have spent the last 2 decades educating our prime youth in financial chicanery and not into how to build roads and the next generation of energy production.

Google Responds to AT&T's Claims of Call Blocking

goog has come to think it has no limitations on what it can get away with. they will pay the piper one day and I hope that day is soon.

really - they're just a search engine people!!!!!!!!

GE Down 10 Days in a Row

Yes and true, but on the way up - no one gets hurt - it's when a few pull the rug out over a few weekends with no plans for rebuilding that causes the BIG problems.

And as far as that other person equating my tax plan as socialism - my business is NOT gambling. Want to gamble go to a real casino and leave our financial markets alone. lol


On Oct 29 08:04 AM TCK wrote:

> Don't under estimate the market manipulation on the upside.
>
> In the last 10 years we have seen the tech, oil, and housing bubbles
> created in part by fast money and speculation.

Recent Market Weakness: The Technical Damage

Your comment is right - WE ALL 'created' it, but the shorts 'caused' it to burst in way that was unwarranted and just destructive. Creative destruction has the connotation to it that something will be created out of the destruction, what this recent group of shorts did was to destroy just for the sake of destruction, and with NOTHING in mind to rebuild or replace it. Their 'trickle down' turned into 'pissing away'.


On Oct 29 07:27 AM greaterdepression wrote:

> Yes, the shorts created the Delusional credit bubble.
> Enjoy the Crash.

GE Down 10 Days in a Row

My question is what does all this nasty market performance prove? Are we all that willing to let a few short-term thinking option traders/traitors take us ALL back down to levels we should have never been at in the 1st place?

We must start INVESTING in this Nation and we must stop all this short-term gambling that has encompassed the markets for the past 10 years.

The 4 Golden Rules:

1. Reinstate the Up-tick rule
2. Crack down on naked short selling
3. Institute some rules on what should be said on National TV to prevent rumor-mongering
4. Pass a Wind-Fall Capital Gains Tax of 65% on ALL short

AND

Revised Tax Rules:

1. Capital gains under <6 months - 55% tax on capital gains
2. Capital gains 6 > 12 months - 45% tax on capital gains
3. Capital gains 1 > 2 years - 35% tax on capital gains
4. Capital gains 2 > 5 years - 18% tax on capital gains
5. Capital gains 5+ years - 5% tax on capital gains
6. Most critical of all — Institute a capital gains tax of 55% on ALL short sales not directly tied to a long buy by a licensed hedge fund. I'm tired of paying for the pure shorts 3rd vacation home.

Recent Market Weakness: The Technical Damage

My question is what does (as one commenter said) all this nasty market performance prove? Are we all that willing to let a few short-term thinking option traders/traitors take us ALL back down to levels we should have never been at in the 1st place?

We must start INVESTING in this Nation and we must stop all this short-term gambling that has encompassed the markets for the past 10 years.

The 4 Golden Rules:

1. Reinstate the Up-tick rule
2. Crack down on naked short selling
3. Institute some rules on what should be said on National TV to prevent rumor-mongering
4. Pass a Wind-Fall Capital Gains Tax of 65% on ALL short

AND

Revised Tax Rules:

1. Capital gains under <6 months - 55% tax on capital gains
2. Capital gains 6 > 12 months - 45% tax on capital gains
3. Capital gains 1 > 2 years - 35% tax on capital gains
4. Capital gains 2 > 5 years - 18% tax on capital gains
5. Capital gains 5+ years - 5% tax on capital gains
6. Most critical of all — Institute a capital gains tax of 55% on ALL short sales not directly tied to a long buy by a licensed hedge fund. I'm tired of paying for the pure shorts 3rd vacation home.