tomyris

Semiconductors: Is the Glass Half-Empty or Half-Full?

I am with you on the semiconductor cycle and am long klic, nvls , ter and mksi to mention but a few. Maybe I am over optimistic but with the SOX index trading around 400 , I expect it to hit 535 sometime next year which means we are not yet 50 % of the way through this cycle .I accept that will the price of oil exploding it is hard to predict any thing with any confidence , however I expect a mini tech revival going into the end of decade as that phenomenon usually makes people feel optimistic about the future and usually electronic manufacturers will have the products ready to catch that wave . Therfore unless I see a clear top ( like a 25 % drop in Klic ) I am not planning to leave the party until october 2009.

BTW I appreciate your posts and wish you well.

What signs to you look for when its time to bail??

Semis Have Been Consistent Losers

I totally agree with tassantr and believe the next cycle will have a peak around November 2009 , due to ground laying expenditures for the 2010 electronic gadget tsunami ( a mini Y2K at decade end , its human behaviour) .