the humble scribe's Comments

Barrick Gold Confirms We've Reached 'Peak Gold'

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 09:06:51 -0500

The title of this blog is misleading in that it implies that gold has peaked in price. If the easy to reach gold is no longer available then I suspect that to the contrary, gold is very far from having peaked.

The Dollar: A Strong Buy

Mon, 21 Sep 2009 11:27:58 -0400

The dollar will only rise when the Fed decides to raise interest rate, when will that happen? When the Fed will think it is time to reinflate the economy. At that time, we better all be loaded up with commodities of all kinds for their price will also skyrocket!

Will the Loonie Join the Party?

Thu, 10 Sep 2009 08:26:24 -0400

The Deep pocket you refer to in your comment must be the Bank of Canada whose intention is to prevent the Canadian dollar from overheating.

Economy Continues to Struggle; Markets to Follow?

Sun, 06 Sep 2009 10:32:58 -0400

If you want to short the market in the present obviously manipulated market you have to be willing to take undue risks. You can't fight the Fed in this context, nor can you count on whistelblowers that may or may not spill the beans. Your safest play may be to short SPY with a 2 % trailing stop loss. You may get exercized if the market moves against you in the opposite direction but at least you will not get wiped out.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Fri, 28 Aug 2009 10:29:17 -0400

It is not if ''we beleive the Party will be toppled'', it is that we beleive the fundamentals for the US dollars are the worse possible. In other words, its not CNY that will appreciate in value; it is that the US dollar will depreciate relative to all other currencies, unless, the Fed decides to start tightening sooner rather than later.

On Aug 28 04:42 AM manya05 wrote:

> Look at all the graphs, including those for currencies, and then
> look at CNY. It screams Manipulation !!! doesn't it? do you really
> want to be invested in that? Why? The only logical answer I see is
> that you are betting the Chinese Communist Party will not be able
> to manipulate forever and at some point they will have to let appreciate.
> I think there is a fat chance they will not be able to manipulate,
> only if you believe the Party will be toppled, and in that case CNY
> will not appreciate, it will be obliterated. Sorry, but I am not
> clear on the concept of owning CNY, it looks like you are better
> off just holding USD.

Forget 'Cash for Clunkers': Try 'Dough for Dumps'

Sun, 23 Aug 2009 16:55:03 -0400

Peter,
You ommitted to tell us if the homes that are going to be sold under your ''dough for dumps'' plan will be ''marked to model'' or ''marked to market''.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Thu, 13 Aug 2009 09:38:28 -0400

David,

Are u seeing a reverse head and shoulder for Rimm over the 22 MA or am I seeing things?

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Tue, 28 Jul 2009 09:39:14 -0400

The question is not who is right or who is wrong at any given earlier time, it is how the future will unfold. If you want to see where we are headed you have to at least know where you are.

Thank you David for providing us with a tool that helps us see where we are.

Still Scratching My Head over Monsanto

Thu, 23 Jul 2009 14:46:50 -0400

It is a futile exercise to speak only of potential long term effects of Monsanto's agricultural products without weighing in the benefits they provide as far a feeding a hungrier world is concerned.

This is in all evidece a case of the good far outweighing the bad.

What to Do in This Market? Just Stay Put for Now

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 13:15:36 -0400

Is this not an inverted head and shoulder which would be bullish rather than bearish?

On Jul 01 07:06 PM Jimbob wrote:

> Look at the chart above. A Head & Shoulders has just been created.
> Very bearish - look out below.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 10:37:43 -0400

Is GLD forming an inverse head and shoulder here?

Soybeans' Price Gains Are Fertilizers' Loss

Thu, 23 Apr 2009 13:26:28 -0400

Good article. It seems however that the next move on fertilizer stocks should come from consolidation or (M&A) rather than from an increase in consumption. Judging from the following article their are plenty of buyers interested in this lucrative market.
theaustralian.news.com...]

The Power of Gold

Thu, 23 Apr 2009 13:03:31 -0400

Am I right in asking at this point, how much could the Federal reserve or other central banks in the world directly (or indirectly through the IMF) for example, manipulate the market price of gold and prevent it from reaching its true value?

Unsurprisingly, Bailouts Breed Corruption

Wed, 22 Apr 2009 08:38:45 -0400

When banks will start trading toxic assets among themselves, as they will surely do to create a zombie market, that's when the ---* will really hit the fan.

Low Gold Price a Buying Opportunity

Tue, 07 Apr 2009 11:28:40 -0400

What about the effect of the IMF selling of Gold as suggested during last week's G20 meetings, is that not going to mitigate the possible rise in the price of Gold because of inflation?

Low Gold Price a Buying Opportunity

Tue, 07 Apr 2009 11:26:10 -0400

What about the effect of the IMF selling of Gold as suggested during last week's G20 meetings, is that not going to mitigate the possible rise in the price of Gold because of inflation?

1100 Tonnes Now in the GLD Trust

Sun, 22 Mar 2009 17:41:23 -0400

Who said Central banks are not selling?

On Mar 20 12:05 PM chazgil wrote:

> I just want to know where they are getting the gold from? COMEX deliveries
> are not increasing, central banks are not selling and China and Russia
> have stated that they are increasing their holdings. So where is
> the tons of gold coming from?

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Fri, 20 Mar 2009 10:25:14 -0400

Johnthebear,

This is a splendid idea, now which are the senators or representatives that will have the cojones to put this to a vote in the senate and in the house.

On Mar 20 09:48 AM johnthebears wrote:

> When a company falls on difficult times, one of the things that seems
> to happen is they reduce their staff and workers.. The remaining
> workers must find ways to continue to do a good job or risk that
> their job would be eliminated as well.
>
> Wall street, and the media normally congratulate the CEO for making
> this type of "tough decision", and his board of directors gives him
> a big bonus.
>
> Our government should not be immune from similar risks.
>
> *Therefore:*
>
> Reduce the House of Representatives from the current 435 members
> to 218 members.
>
> Reduce Senate members from 100 to 50 (one per State).
>
> Then, reduce their staff by 25%.
>
> Accomplish this over the next 8 years(two steps/two elections) and
> of course this would require some redistricting.
>
> Some Yearly Monetary Gains Include:
>
> * $44,108,400 for elimination of base pay for congress.. (267 members
> X $165,200 pay/member/ yr.)
>
> * $97,175,000 for elimination of their staff. (estimate $1.3 Million
> in staff per each member of the House, and $3 Million in staff per
> each member of the Senate every year)
>
> * $240,294 for the reduction in remaining staff by 25%.
>
> * $7,500,000,000 reduction in pork barrel ear-marks each year. (those
> members whose jobs are gone. Current estimates for total government
> pork earmarks are at $15 Billion/yr)
>
> * The remaining representatives would need to work smarter and improve
> efficiencies. It might even be in their best interests to work together
> for the good of our country!
>
> We may also expect that smaller committees might lead to a more efficient
> resolution of issues as well. It might even be easier to keep track
> of what your representative is doing..
>
> Congress has more tools available to do their jobs than it had back
> in 1911 when he current number of representatives was established.
> (telephone, computers, cell phones to name a few)
>
> *Note:*
>
> Congress did not hesitate to head home when it was a holiday, when
> the nation needed a real fix to the economic problems.. Also, we
> have 3 senators that have not been doing their jobs for the past
> 18+ months (on the campaign trail) and still they all have been accepting
> full pay. These facts alone support a reduction in senators &
> congress.
>
> *** Summary of opportunity per YEAR:
>
> $44,108,400 reduction of congress members.
>
> $282,100,000 for elimination of the reduced house member staff.

>
> $150,000,000 for elimination of reduced senate member staff.
>
> $59,675,000 for 25% reduction of staff for remaining house members.
>
>
> $37,500,000 for 25% reduction of staff for remaining senate members.
>
>
> $7,500,000,000 reduction in pork added to bills by the reduction
> of congress members.
>
> $8,073,383,400 per year,
>
> estimated total savings. (that's 8-BILLION just to start!)
>
> That is hope and Change I can believe IN Big Time!
>
> Big business does these types of cuts all the time. If Congresspersons
> were required to serve 20, 25 or 30 years (like everyone else) in
> order to collect retirement benefits, tax payers could save a bundle.
>
>
> Now they get full retirement after serving only ONE term.. IF you
> are happy with how Congress spends our taxes keep on doing as we
> are.
>
> I think it is time for real change. In the meantime, my observation
> from all the wonderful charts provided by Mr. Fry suggest long term
> down lines as reflected by the MACD charts on everything, including
> commodities.
>
> Did you notice that Russia is about to default in a major way today?

Is It Time to Abandon the U.S. Dollar and Go for Gold?

Wed, 04 Mar 2009 10:20:24 -0500

What if some European central banks start selling Gold to prop up their econmy? Could this bring down the price of Gold?

Rumors are that Italy may be already selling some of its Gold reservers.

Barron's Is Way Off Base Regarding Mark to Market

Wed, 18 Feb 2009 14:29:49 -0500

And what is the prevailing interesting rate in your thinking if not the present market price?

DUH

On Feb 18 09:50 AM bobreilly wrote:

> Market Value assumes a willing seller, among other factors. When
> these loans are NOT for sale and will be held to maturity, the market
> value should be ascertained by a combination of existing risk of
> loss, prevailing interesting rate and other perinent factors. NOT
> THE *PRICE* FROM A FORCED LIQUIDATION SALE!
>
> DUH!

Are Mining Stocks a Good Bet Again?

Thu, 29 Jan 2009 13:39:09 -0500

BHP and Rio are good long term investments at their present valuation.

Great Depression Not Imminent, But Inevitable

Wed, 17 Dec 2008 11:13:37 -0500

The author discloses short positions in SPY and EEM...might this not indicate some kind of agenda?

No. That is not an agenda. That is just to substantiate his opinion.

On Dec 17 10:04 AM drbob66 wrote:

> "So i always welcome commentaries which appear to be honest and without
> an agenda"
>
> The author discloses short positions in SPY and EEM...might this
> not indicate some kind of agenda?
>
> On Dec 17 09:10 AM Boubou wrote:

Keep EnCana On Your Short List

Fri, 04 Apr 2008 08:30:57 -0400

I agree with pockyclips202o's comment!

Analysts Bullish on Teck Cominco, But Divided on Price Targets

Sun, 24 Feb 2008 08:45:05 -0500

The market is also ignoring potential sovereign fund interest in Teck. Teck is the largest remaining independent miner in Canada. There could very well be potential takeover activity in this stock simply because of its proven reserves.