number2son's Comments

Evergreen Solar's Long Term Outlook

Thu, 18 Jun 2009 10:29:24 -0400

You were right about the dilution. A 20% dilutive stock offering at an historically low price. Common shareholders get the shaft once again.

And then, to add insult to injury, a week later they file SEC documents showing a large distribution of stock awards to the self-same people who have managed the company's stock down to a sub $2 price. It is an outrage that both the management and the BOD is so grossly negligent in their fiduciary responsibilities.

Long term outlook aside, until Feldt and El-Hillow are replaced with competent managers, this company will be a perennial underachiever. That is, if it manages to survive.

On May 04 08:51 AM John Cordes wrote:

> The biggest short term risk to Evergreen is the CEO. If the contract
> backlog was under attack for cancellations and renegotiations, the
> share holders will find out after the fact. Here is someone who
> "lent" Lehman Bros. 30 million shares to short in exchange for an
> extension of credit facility during the worst contraction last year.
> To my knowledge they still have not re-acquired these shares as they
> were denied under bankruptcy proceedings. Evergreen expands capacity
> at Devons by a factor of 5 then turns to China to average down costs.
> It tool a long time for me to see a pattern, but I finally got it.
> Macro conditions can improve dramiatically for solar but Evergreen's
> CEO will find a way to tank the stock. The transparency only comes
> after the fact when the shareholders are screaming for explanations.
> I can also assure you that there will be dillution in order to raise
> the $100million. Conceptually a great business, good proprietary
> technology, good sales force, horrible CEO.

A Stimulus Plan to Actually Improve Economy Fundamentals

Sat, 24 Jan 2009 10:19:35 -0500

Who are you, John Thain?

Leftists? Too funny.

And here's news for you - that 40% tax rate is a canard:

danshaviro.blogspot.co...

On Jan 23 07:17 AM Steve in Greensboro wrote:

> Why are the leftists so big on limiting executive pay? As a shareholder,
> I'd rather have a well-run, innovative company (led by very highly
> compensated execs) that pays 40% on large earnings than 15% on no
> earnings.
>
> Eventually the U.S. must get its, world's-highest> tax rate down to 15% anyway to be able to compete with the rest of
> the world.

Evergreen Solar: Why This Overlooked Company Is a Good Investment

Wed, 22 Oct 2008 10:44:55 -0400

Good analysis. As I write, the Euro has plunged, adding yet more weight to ESLR's share price. And the Barclays lawsuit, while the absolute right thing to do from management, underscores how little banks care about smaller companies. It also reveals in its bald ugliness, the ethical vacuum at Lehman.

Analysts have also cited oversupply being a risk in 2009. Another risk is an extended recession that leads governments and business to scale back on solar projects.

This pessimism in the markets, this sector, and this company, in particular, is at its highest pitch right now.

The only positive is that Evergreen continues to ramp Devens (they produced a bit over 1MW in the first two weeks of October per their earnings report).

I'm not sure we're at the bottom yet. But here's wishing we're somewhere close.

Liquidity Key To Picking Homebuilder Stocks - Citi

Sun, 17 Aug 2008 10:06:18 -0400

Consolidation? Are you kidding? None of these guys are going to waste cash buying a competitor with a deteriorating balance sheet.

In the Battle of Best Solar Plays, U.S. Is a Distant Second

Tue, 22 Jul 2008 08:29:02 -0400

Agreed with other comments pointing out this author's poor analysis of Evergreen (ESLR). They are executing precisely against their business plan as they move from a R&D company to state-of-the-art manufacturer of solar panels.

Articles like this illustrate the ongoing confusion about the ongoing confusion among investors about this company. And given their clear guidance, provided must fully recently during their investor-day event and recent earnings call, there is really no excuse for this. Particularly among those who would suppose to write about the company on a widely-read investor web site.

Friday's Turnaround: Raid on the Shorts

Sun, 24 Feb 2008 11:59:19 -0500

"There have been instances when false rumors caused the market to tank - just like that."

Really? I think I know what you're talking about:

When rumors circulated that Buffet was going to buy Hovnanian ...
oops that caused the builders to rise.

Let's try again ...

When rumors circulated that Buffet was going to buy CountryWide ... oops, darn it, that caused the financials to rally.

Ok, this is harder than I thought ....

House-Price Momentum: The Good News

Sun, 24 Feb 2008 10:34:21 -0500

Your thesis falls apart if you stop to consider affordability is still too low and prices must continue to adjust downward. Lending standards are returning to the mean, which means no more no-doc, 0% down loans. People will actually need to put equity at stake in their home purchase (imagine that!) and prove that they can make the monthly payment.

Mueller Industries: Gearing Up for a Housing Recovery

Sun, 24 Feb 2008 10:12:22 -0500

Sleepy? The stock has rallied 24% in February.

I want to know your idea of a volatile stock!

But you do make a good point in looking for companies that have been sold off, yet still have strong earnings, revenue and low to no debt.

Shorting the Homebuilders as Their Stocks Surge

Sun, 24 Feb 2008 09:27:13 -0500

Bill Miller, tomyris and islandcreek provide amble evidence that the bear market for housing stocks still has a long way to go.

Miller made a colossal error in 2005 in buying home builder stocks at their top. Now he claims to be buying the bottom. He is either afflicted with fatal arrogance or stupidity. It makes no difference to me either way, but what does matter is that he is as wrong now as he was in 2005. In that, he has been consistent.